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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
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I love your enthusiam , but come on be fair , when you say stuff like its futher east . its not my man .

yes its far out and that may be your only saving grace

Maybe I need glasses. Anyway, a big signal for a storm . The track is up in the air. Should be fun tracking it.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
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0z Euro and 12z GFS match up really well after Day 10 , both show the main PV being routed out of Alaska and into Central Canada

So any forcing south brings the core of the cold right thru the Lakes , AND NOT down the west coast so a much better better look high height wise nosing into Alaska .

Wana see if the ensembles start to see these changes

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Snowshack

Snowshack

Posted
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It is in the main forum. DT is really bullish on an east coast winter storm on the 26th.

I sure didnt come away with the same feeling after watching his video...hes not changing his forecast as of now but he mentioned about 20 times that it hinges on strength/position and actual existence of the block, which is far from certain.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

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Well at the very least, it definitely looks like it could be a lot colder than we've seen (torch, powerful cutter like shown would further tap into the cold reservoir up north and really bring the cold air down. The problem is that it's always 10 days away but those highs up north are getting stronger and hopefully the pacific gets better.

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Sundog

Sundog

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dude its progressive, a few days of down to normal temps isnt a big deal. The overall pattern remains the same, strong -PNA lackluster blocking and low heights over AK.

That cutoff in the central plains has a chance to slide due east as opposed to gaining latitude. The highs are blocked in in southeastern Canada and they are 1040+mb at that.

Of course this will probably be completely gone in 12 hours but my point still stands.

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