Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[MJO812]

^^^

Fantastic post. Thanks for contributing.

[IsentropicLift]

The SE ridge is coming in flatter on the 12z GFS, baby steps at this point

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GFS has really lessened the warm spell. Keeps the +10 850 line south of the area except for about a 36-48 hour period.

[MJO812]

The front comes in quicker on this run.

[MJO812]

GFS has a wave riding the front. No GLC this run.

[rossi]

GFS has a wave riding the front. No GLC this run.

 

What day is this?

 

Rossi

[Allsnow]

What dasy is this?

Rossi

Tue night into wed. It's rain NYC south on the gfs. Frozen/slop zucker north

[Snowshack]

Looks like the same old same old. The snow and cold always ten days away

 

12z GFS isnt even tossing the day 10 bone..

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zGFS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif

 

Looks like the cold shot got neutered (at least on this run)

[Isotherm]

I don't like the trends at all on the GFS if one compares yesterday's 18z run versus today's 12z run. There's a clear weakening of the PNA ridge w/ lower heights in the NPAC, and so the -EPO is not as impressive. Additionally, the GFS is now cutting off the upper low in the SW US, agreeing w/ the overnight 00z Euro. This keeps the upper low disonnected from the long wave trough, and the trough itself is not as amplified into the Northeast due mostly to the change in height field depiction in the crucial north pacific region. The north atlantic still has height rises but it's unimpressive.

It can always head back in the other direction though. I think we might see the MJO wave propagate further east than currently progged, and once/if models begin seeing that, we may return to a more impressive H5 depiction for the latter part of January. However, right now, the past 12 hours we've been trending away from major sustained cold in the East.

[Edge Weather]

In regards to the day 10 storm on the 12z GFS, it looks nearly identical to this morning's run of the Euro Control model, although the GFS is quite a bit stronger with the storm.  The control run of the Euro this morning was significantly different in appearance to the operational run of the Euro in regard to this feature.  It is interesting to now see the GFS show a similar solution.  

[Weathergun]

I don't like the trends at all on the GFS if one compares yesterday's 18z run versus today's 12z run. There's a clear weakening of the PNA ridge w/ lower heights in the NPAC, and so the -EPO is not as impressive. Additionally, the GFS is now cutting off the upper low in the SW US, agreeing w/ the overnight 00z Euro. This keeps the upper low disonnected from the long wave trough, and the trough itself is not as amplified into the Northeast due mostly to the change in height field depiction in the crucial north pacific region. The north atlantic still has height rises but it's unimpressive.

It can always head back in the other direction though. I think we might see the MJO wave propagate further east than currently progged, and once/if models begin seeing that, we may return to a more impressive H5 depiction for the latter part of January. However, right now, the past 12 hours we've been trending away from major sustained cold in the East.

 

The PV placement is most important. Today's run is over James Bay and while yesterday's was over Northern Canada. Also today we have 500mb heights working back west over Davis Strait and Baffin Island to force the PV south.

[uncle W]

also fading is a cold winter...only two of the 32 warmest Decembers had a winter below average...some managed to have a cold month but overall it was milder than the long term average...
Warmest Decembers and winter temperature...
year.......Dec temp.......Winter temp...
2001-02.......44.1.......41.5
1984-85.......43.8.......36.4
2006-07.......43.6.......36.5
2011-12.......43.3.......40.5
1998-99.......43.2.......38.7
1982-83.......42.8.......37.9
1990-91.......42.6.......39.2
1891-92.......42.3.......35.7
1994-95.......42.2.......37.1
1923-24.......42.0.......34.6
2012-13.......41.5.......???
1996-97.......41.3.......37.8
1953-54.......41.3.......37.4
1979-80.......41.1.......35.4
1931-32.......41.0.......40.1
1956-57.......40.9.......35.6
1971-72.......40.8.......35.1
1965-66.......40.5.......35.9
1957-58.......40.2.......33.3
1889-90.......40.0.......37.9
1999-00.......40.0.......36.2
1991-92.......39.6.......37.2
1987-88.......39.5.......34.7
1881-82.......39.4.......34.5
1911-12.......39.4.......30.6
1918-19.......39.4.......36.6
1949-50.......39.4.......37.5
1974-75.......39.4.......37.5
1912-13.......39.3.......37.2
1928-29.......39.3.......34.7
1932-33.......39.1.......37.8
1973-74.......39.0.......35.5
1986-87.......39.0.......34.8
32 yr average............36.6
1870 to
2009 ave...................33.4
1980 to
2009 ave...................35.5         forecasts for a colder than normal winter in the NYC area are in trouble if not dead...Chances for a  snowier than average winter are slim...Slim left town...Only two winters with a top 32 warmest December (39.0 or higher) had a colder than average winter...A few were colder than the 30 year normals...Those winters had a cold January or February...The map has the top 20 warmest going back to 1895...I'm not bullish on February and this map makes less even less...

...

 

 

[IsentropicLift]

also fading is a cold winter...only two of the 32 warmest Decembers had a winter below average...some managed to have a cold month but overall it was milder than the long term average...

Warmest Decembers and winter temperature...

year.......Dec temp.......Winter temp...

2001-02.......44.1.......41.5

1984-85.......43.8.......36.4

2006-07.......43.6.......36.5

2011-12.......43.3.......40.5

1998-99.......43.2.......38.7

1982-83.......42.8.......37.9

1990-91.......42.6.......39.2

1891-92.......42.3.......35.7

1994-95.......42.2.......37.1

1923-24.......42.0.......34.6

2012-13.......41.5.......???

1996-97.......41.3.......37.8

1953-54.......41.3.......37.4

1979-80.......41.1.......35.4

1931-32.......41.0.......40.1

1956-57.......40.9.......35.6

1971-72.......40.8.......35.1

1965-66.......40.5.......35.9

1957-58.......40.2.......33.3

1889-90.......40.0.......37.9

1999-00.......40.0.......36.2

1991-92.......39.6.......37.2

1987-88.......39.5.......34.7

1881-82.......39.4.......34.5

1911-12.......39.4.......30.6

1918-19.......39.4.......36.6

1949-50.......39.4.......37.5

1974-75.......39.4.......37.5

1912-13.......39.3.......37.2

1928-29.......39.3.......34.7

1932-33.......39.1.......37.8

1973-74.......39.0.......35.5

1986-87.......39.0.......34.8

32 yr average............36.6

1870 to

2009 ave...................33.4

1980 to

2009 ave...................35.5         forecasts for a colder than normal winter in the NYC area are in trouble if not dead...Chances for a  snowier than average winter are slim...Slim left town...Only two winters with a top 32 warmest December (39.0 or higher) had a colder than average winter...A few were colder than the 30 year normals...Those winters had a cold January or February...The map has the top 20 warmest going back to 1895...I'm not bullish on February and this map makes less even less...

...

We're barely two years removed from one of the snowiest periods on record in this area. It may take a few years but the cold and snow will return eventually. The two winters before last spoiled too many posters in this sub-forum.

[earthlight]

Not complaining about this look at all.

 

[uncle W]

the long range has looked good for a month or so...Sooner or later it will be right...It might not be this year the way things are going...I said this before but the crappy winters always have a good set up in the long range...The good winters have a good set up in the short range...

[Allsnow]

We're barely two years removed from one of the snowiest periods on record in this area. It may take a few years but the cold and snow will return eventually. The two winters before last spoiled too many posters in this sub-forum.

I never understood this comment. Just because I got 60 inches of snow two years ago, I should not expect winter in January? 08-09 was a great winter, I had avg snow here. So I should expect 50's and snowless, just because I got 60 in 11?

[earthlight]

I never understood this comment. Just because I got 60 inches of snow two years ago, I should not expect winter in January? 08-09 was a great winter, I had avg snow here. So I should expect 50's and snowless, just because I got 60 in 11?

 

Winter has been average in many areas, or above average in some areas of this subforum. Sometimes you just get unlucky. It happens. The point of his post was that the complaining is extra ridiculous when we're coming off such an epic stretch. Some people act like they haven't seen a snowflake in 10 years.

[famartin]

I never understood this comment. Just because I got 60 inches of snow two years ago, I should not expect winter in January? 08-09 was a great winter, I had avg snow here. So I should expect 50's and snowless, just because I got 60 in 11?

 

Well remember certain things about the climate in NYC:

 

1 - Average snowfall in January (long term) might be 7.3, but standard deviation is 6.5 and the median is 5.7.  In other words, its not really unusual to have below normal snowfall in January; in fact, below normal is really "normal".

 

2 - 1981-2010 average maximum January temperature is 60.  Median is 59.  So essentially, spiking up to 60 at least once in January isn't unusual either.

[earthlight]

Well remember certain things about the climate in NYC:

 

1 - Average snowfall in January (long term) might be 7.3, but standard deviation is 6.5 and the median is 5.7.  In other words, its not really unusual to have below normal snowfall in January; in fact, below normal is really "normal".

 

2 - 1981-2010 average maximum January temperature is 60.  Median is 59.  So essentially, spiking up to 60 at least once in January isn't unusual either.

 

But it's the end of times...this winter is horrible

[Isotherm]

Well remember certain things about the climate in NYC:

 

1 - Average snowfall in January (long term) might be 7.3, but standard deviation is 6.5 and the median is 5.7.  In other words, its not really unusual to have below normal snowfall in January; in fact, below normal is really "normal".

 

2 - 1981-2010 average maximum January temperature is 60.  Median is 59.  So essentially, spiking up to 60 at least once in January isn't unusual either.

 

 

 

How far north does one need to go where the "median" is equal (or almost equal) to the mean snowfall? I think Boston's median is still lower than the mean annually.

[earthlight]

How far north does one need to go where the "median" is equal to the mean snowfall? I think Boston's median is still lower than the mean annually.

 

Interested in the modeling look at 180 hours? Wonder if that ULL over the Southwest ejecting out has some promise especially with the PV over Southeast Canada..

[famartin]

How far north does one need to go where the "median" is equal (or almost equal) to the mean snowfall? I think Boston's median is still lower than the mean annually.

 

Burlington VT is very close to the same, essentially identical.  Albany was just a couple inches below their mean.

[Isotherm]

Interested in the modeling look at 180 hours? Wonder if that ULL over the Southwest ejecting out has some promise especially with the PV over Southeast Canada..

 

 

I'm hoping we can see a trend toward ejecting that low as I'm not crazy about the models closing that off in the medium range. If the H5 low can get kicked east, our trough would be more amplified w/ colder air and a better shot at snow.

[IsentropicLift]

Winter has been average in many areas, or above average in some areas of this subforum. Sometimes you just get unlucky. It happens. The point of his post was that the complaining is extra ridiculous when we're coming off such an epic stretch. Some people act like they haven't seen a snowflake in 10 years.

 

It's for comments like this that I wish we had a like button

 

The fact of the matter is, becuase of the geographical location of the greater NYC area, it's not a prime location for cold and snow every year. Perhaps some would be happier in say Minneapolis, Green Bay or Buffalo.

[Isotherm]

I'm hoping we can see a trend toward ejecting that low as I'm not crazy about the models closing that off in the medium range. If the H5 low can get kicked east, our trough would be more amplified w/ colder air and a better shot at snow.

 

 

I also like the look of the 12Z ECM better than the GFS. Builds the EPO and NAO ridging more, and thus further SE w/ the PV and colder air.

 

Get the cold in here first, then we can start talking snow opportunities. There may be a wave running up the front early next week which could produce some wintry wx for the interior Northeast. Something to watch in the nearer-term anyway.

[IsentropicLift]

I also like the look of the 12Z ECM better than the GFS. Builds the EPO and NAO ridging more, and thus further SE w/ the PV and colder air.

 

Get the cold in here first, then we can start talking snow opportunities. There may be a wave running up the front early next week which could produce some wintry wx for the interior Northeast. Something to watch in the nearer-term anyway.

 

The end of the 12z EURO is very nice. Cold air in place, the SE ridge is well displaced near the eastern Caribbean. You also have ridging moving into the west coast and a trough dropping down into the mid-west. Could be something to watch.

 

[Weathergun]

The 12z Euro ensembles look less transient with PV over Hudson Bay/ SE Canada, than op the Euro. Stronger -NAO keep the PV from lifting out:

 

 

[MJO812]

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

I know many are skeptical about cold and snow chances coming day 8+, citing the lackluster December and winter of 2011-2012. But I would be cautious is throwing out the chances of a good winter patternbecause of that. The difference is in the PV into Canada combined with some sort of -NAO block. You don't get a sub 480 height PV into E Canada witha decent NA block without getting at least some kind of cold and snow results with it. Sure, if the PNA behaves well it would be a great pattern, but even if the PNA isn't ideal it would seem that the combination of the -NAO block with some ridging into AK/Yukon, combined with a bitter PV in place over Canada would serve to pinch that PV off over North Ameerica and at least provide the chance for alternating cold and storm shots over the US as it rots to our north. I'm fairly optimistic about something decent for a period of 2-3 weeks beginning around 16-18th.

[WIN]

I never understood this comment. Just because I got 60 inches of snow two years ago, I should not expect winter in January? 08-09 was a great winter, I had avg snow here. So I should expect 50's and snowless, just because I got 60 in 11?