Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[Guest Pamela]

Since October 2012

Days 32 F or Below For Minimum

 

Islip: 35

Central Park: 16

LaGuardia: 10

 

Even Norfolk, Virginia...almost unquestionably the mildest spot in the state in the winter...ocean exposed and just up the coast from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina...has seen more 32 F or below days than LaGuardia...11 to 10.  Richmond, VA, over the interior, has seen 32 F or below on 24 days. 

[Guest Pamela]

Even Norfolk, Virginia...almost unquestionably the mildest spot in the state in the winter...ocean exposed and just up the coast from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina...has seen more 32 F or below days than LaGuardia...11 to 10.  Richmond, VA, over the interior, has seen 32 F or below on 24 days. 

 

I believe I have commented a few times that when a cold anticyclone moves towards the East Coast from the west...the morning low at Norfolk and the morning low at LaGuardia will usually be fairly close.  When the anticyclone drops south out of Canada, LGA will usually be somewhat colder than Norfolk with regards to morning minima. (This assumes cold frontal passage in both cities). 

[NEG NAO]

http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KLGA

 

looking at that picture - the location of the thermometer - IMO the surrounding area of runways and water has some effect on the temperatures being read - especially since the water is probably warmer then normal this season.....hard to believe Central Park has had 16  - 32 or below min temps and LaGuardia only 10 and Islip 35

[famartin]

looking at that picture - the location of the thermometer - IMO the surrounding area of runways and water has some effect on the temperatures being read - especially since the water is probably warmer then normal this season.....hard to believe Central Park has had 16  - 32 or below min temps and LaGuardia only 10 and Islip 35

 

http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KNYC

 

http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KISP

[Isotherm]

As of right now both the gefs and the euro ens, though delayed, rotate that pac ridge westward. Which then in terms brings back the -pna and you know the story from then. Need a solid -nao to combat that if it happens.

 

 

-PNA isn't bad from PHL northeastward if we've got a -NAO preferrably west based and strong.

 

Correlation to temps isn't all that strong for DJF. The EPO, NAO, and AO are more important temp indices for the Northeast, although the PNA does exert some influence certainly (Esp when stronger in magnitude).

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The SE Ridge is somewhat weaker on the 00Z EURO through D5. The 582 dm line doesn't go as far north as SE VA like the 12Z EURO did.

[atownwxwatcher]

The SE Ridge is somewhat weaker on the 00Z EURO through D5. The 582 dm line doesn't go as far north as SE VA like the 12Z EURO did.

 

And the cold is more transient in nature if you are outside Northern New England 

 

 

 

And not nearly as cold as 12 Z 

[MJO812]

Euro isn't impressive with the cold air either.

[MJO812]

Ensembles are better though.

[PB GFI]

It's hard to expect consistency from a day to day operational post day 10 . One run will look cold the following will appear like a warm joke .

I would go with the Ensembles and weeklies.

If they ever broke down then it would get my attention. Don't get hung up 1 run. Can't forecast that way.

[bluewave]

The Euro ensemble mean is hinting that the cold near the end of the 6-10 period is only going

to be transient. You will notice that in a week the ridge maxes out near the West Coast.

Instead of building the ridge eastward and locking in the colder weather here, heights

start building again south of the Aleutians. The ridging south of the Aleutians usually

teleconnects to a trough near the West Coast several days later. A trough in that

position would let the Pacific jet through again moderating the temps over the US.

 

 

 

Aleutian Ridge comes back 

 

 

Aleutian ridge and moderating temps here last week of January

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

As of today its obvious that any real pattern change that produces a prolonged cold and snowy pattern in the east is still very much in doubt. A look at the MJO forecast suggests that the MJO is on the move through phase 6 and briefly into phase 7 and then loops back into phase 6. This brief time period in phase 7 produces a brief return to colder then normal weather later next week BUT with the MJO forecasted to go back into phase 6 which is an unfavorable phase for cold and snow in the east - look for a return to the above average temps. The NAO and PNA are also staying close to neutral in the outlooks if you average the members out . The AO is Negative throughout.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

[CIK62]

GFSx from 0Z has NYC at  +14 degrees (avg.) for the next 8 days including today, Wed.

[Edge Weather]

This morning's Euro continues to suggest the chance for some wintry type weather on Tuesday of next week for the NW suburbs, possibly in the form of freezing rain.  Four of the GFS ensemble members and the Euro control run continue to bring us a chance of a coastal storm for the following Saturday.  The Euro control run also shows the main cold shot subsiding, but not completely going away, as it rotates westward in Canada and keeps temperatures seasonal here through 360 hrs.  The control run did not look that bad temperature wise.  

[NEG NAO]

This morning's Euro continues to suggest the chance for some wintry type weather on Tuesday of next week for the NW suburbs, possibly in the form of freezing rain.  Four of the GFS ensemble members and the Euro control run continue to bring us a chance of a coastal storm for the following Saturday.  The Euro control run also shows the main cold shot subsiding, but not completely going away, as it rotates westward in Canada and keeps temperatures seasonal here through 360 hrs.  The control run did not look that bad temperature wise.  

 

actually it would be more favorable pattern if the cold air doesn't charge in and start suppressing the storm tracks - still opportunities for snow here even if its a transient pattern going back and forth just need good timing and the NAO and PNA to work together even if only  briefly

[PB GFI]

After being plus 10 for10 days i think its reasobable to bet on a step down process rather than a rapid decline. Thats always more common in the upper mid west not the northeast. In my experience i thnk getting patterns tp come back around is like pulling teeth. But i would bet after a nice 10 day of warmth is folliwed by a week of normal and if the vortex collapses in its after that.

[NEG NAO]

After being plus 10 for10 days i think its reasobable to bet on a step down process rather than a rapid decline. Thats always more common in the upper mid west not the northeast. In my experience i thnk getting patterns tp come back around is like pulling teeth. But i would bet after a nice 10 day of warmth is folliwed by a week of normal and if the vortex collapses in its after that.

 

The best indicator now of what is going to happen down the road is the MJO - it has been correct all season - need it to go to phase 7 and stay there or go to 8 - not loop back to 6 like a few model runs are showing now........

 

Here is the current reading of the MJO

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.phase.Last40days.gif

[SnoSki14]

So the stratospheric warming means nothing? 

[MJO812]

The stratosphere is really warming up. I wonder if the models are struggling because of that.

[NEG NAO]

So the stratospheric warming means nothing? 

 

well lets review an article from last January when the same thing was happening - and what happened ended up happening here in the east ?:

 

http://mammothweather.com/2012/01/07/current-strato-warming-in-processand-the-flip-of-the-qbo-to-easterly-suggests-that-ep-upper-ridge-will-be-suppressed-by-week-3/

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The stratosphere is really warming up. I wonder if the models are struggling because of that.

 

The trough at the EPAC hasn't reached the mainland yet, so the Computer Models will continue to struggle until it approaches the mainland US. Give it another 24 hours.

[CIK62]

GFS shows that there will be no snow left on the ground anywhere in Ohio, Pa., NY,Mass.  and more.,  6 days from now.   It comes back on days 7-8 only to leave again by day 15.

[Allsnow]

Looks like the same old same old. The snow and cold always ten days away

[easternsnowman]

GFS shows that there will be no snow left on the ground anywhere in Ohio, Pa., NY,Mass.  and more.,  6 days from now.   It comes back on days 7-8 only to leave again by day 15.

 

If you listen to the pros after day 10 is when the models have little skill, let alone day 15 so I would'nt worry about that far out.

[MJO812]

Good discussions in the main forum about the stratospheric warming going on. It is looking really good. There are signs of it starting to go downward through the stratosphere.

[PB GFI]

The best indicator now of what is going to happen down the road is the MJO - it has been correct all season - need it to go to phase 7 and stay there or go to 8 - not loop back to 6 like a few model runs are showing now........

 

Here is the current reading of the MJO

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.phase.Last40days.gif

 

Think as we get closer in time - the models will show that the MJO keep rolling and not collpasing .

I thnk its a step down process , and probably a painful one .

But I can see why people are skeptical .

[IsentropicLift]

Last night's 00z run of the CMC showed some potential in the 8-10 day time frame. A nice trough slides through the area and a coastal moves by to the east. Something to watch. Temps would be plenty cold enough.

[PB GFI]

well lets review an article from last January when the same thing was happening - and what happened ended up happening here in the east ?:

 

http://mammothweather.com/2012/01/07/current-strato-warming-in-processand-the-flip-of-the-qbo-to-easterly-suggests-that-ep-upper-ridge-will-be-suppressed-by-week-3/

 

Yes but last years cold rotated onto the other side of the pole .

I thnk most models see the cold in our Hemisphere this year .

So thats half the battle .

[MJO812]

Yes but last years cold rotated onto the other side of the pole .

I thnk most models see the cold in our Hemisphere this year .

So thats half the battle .

The warming did happen last winter but like you said , the other side of the world got the cold.

[BxEngine]