Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[Brian5671]

When did I ever think that? lol

12/29

[MJO812]

12/29

 

I thought the precip was going to be heavy. That would have cooled the column.

[forkyfork]

When did I ever think that? lol

from november:

I guess surface temps are more important in certain situations than 850 temps. I clearly thought the area was going to be all snow based off the 850's. Lesson learned for me.

[MJO812]

This is really sad. Passed away of cancer at 43.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/Racy/

[MJO812]

12z GFS =

[Weathergun]

These are the new GEFS, ECMWF and UKMET ensemble MJO forecasts today. They all seem to be stalling the MJO, somewhere between phases 6 and 7:

 

 

[Snowshack]

12z GFS =

 

It has slowed the progression of cold air to the coast significantly through...look at the 216 hr panel on todays 12z and then compare it to 0z, and then yesterdays 12z and its a significant difference.  The day 15 stuff is nice to look at but hardly bankable.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPNA216.html

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

These are the new GEFS, ECMWF and UKMET ensemble MJO forecasts today. They all seem to be stalling the MJO, somewhere between phases 6 and 7:

 

 

Looks like they all want to go to the COD briefly before going back to Phase 6/7. 

[MJO812]

It has slowed the progression of cold air to the coast significantly through...look at the 216 hr panel on todays 12z and then compare it to 0z, and then yesterdays 12z and its a significant difference.  The day 15 stuff is nice to look at but hardly bankable.

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPNA216.html

 

Not really. About a day or two which isn't big. I don't want the cold if the snow doesn't come with it.

[Isotherm]

With such a tight W-E thermal gradient and baroclinicity in the 15th-18th period, I'd watch for some sort of low moving up the East Coast. My guess is it'd most likely be an interior Northeast threat, but it's interesting to watch.

The MJO guidance from today was a bit discouraging as the models are not as bullish on propagating the wave through phase 7, but 12z data seems to be building the -NAO block regardless post D7. Still, I'd like to see some changes with regards to the tropical forcing, though it's only one piece of the puzzle. We've got the -EPO building in and the major mid winter warming of the stratosphere which will certainly tank the AO in the medium range. Question has been and still is the NAO in my mind. The more we build the block westward the better chance we have of shoving the PV swd into Ontario/Quebec and thus delivering REAL cold into our area (aka not simply normal temps).

I'm not so much concerned about snow at this point as I think those opportunities will follow suit if we can FIRST get the cold pattern in place. As I said, usually our winter events don't come in warm-->cold transitions, they tend to occur either in a cold pattern or when the cold regime is becoming warmer. The interior could benefit from the frontal passage and a wave running up the coast.         

[MJO812]

Euro agrees with the GFS about the cold front around the 17th-18th. After that, it gets really cold.

[SnoSki14]

Euro agrees with the GFS about the cold front around the 17th-18th. After that, it gets really cold.

 

It's some 10 days out so it's far from reality at this point. If it shows the same within 4-5 days, then I'll bite. 

[atownwxwatcher]

Euro also appears to delay the colder air with its arrival compared to the 00z run....

[PB GFI]

The Euro is fine. The cold is back here day 8 ish. Do not worry. The cold is on its way. Enjoy the warm weather for the next 7 days. Because once its past , we are turning colder and probably for a few weeks.

[MJO812]

Euro also appears to delay the colder air with its arrival compared to the 00z run....

Not by much. Agrees with the GFS.

[Isotherm]

Plenty of cold in Canada over the next week, and this will translate to very cold in the Plains given the differences in normals. Warmth lingering in the SE portion of Canada but that is due to the very mild D 3-5 period.

 

[PB GFI]

Plenty of cold in Canada over the next week, and this will translate to very cold in the Plains given the differences in normals. Warmth lingering in the SE portion of Canada but that is due to the very mild D 3-5 period.

I agree. The coldest air in the world is on our border next week. I don't get all the angst. Pos Pna. Develops The Euro weeklies , ensembles , monthlies , CFSv2. and all the Operational day 10 plus they all see it.

The cold is coming. Does it yield snow ? That no one knows. But once past the middle of next week. I think we are in a pretty good spot for a few weeks.

[CooL]

Very encouraging 12z runs today. Things will get rolling in the 2nd half of the month

[Snow_Miser]

The 12z ECMWF has a very nice -EPO/-NAO developing in the long range.

 

[bluewave]

The first solid signal from the Euro ensemble mean of below normal temperatures arriving in 

the Northeast toward the later part of the 6-10 day period. If we can get the PNA to rise

a little bit more, the PV could move further south over Canada than the ensembles are

showing and get colder here. Models can really struggle with PV placement in the

6-10 day range. In any event, this looks like the first time that the dominant Northern

Hemisphere PV is in Canada instead of Eurasia since 2011.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Edge Weather]

18z GFS comes really close to a nice Nor'easter phase next Friday. It will be interesting to see the ensemble members. The models have been hinting at this period and scenario with a low coming across the lakes and possibly phasing with a low near the coast.

[bluewave]

18z GFS comes really close to a nice Nor'easter phase next Friday. It will be interesting to see the ensemble members. The models have been hinting at this period and scenario with a low coming across the lakes and possibly phasing with a low near the coast.

 

These Arctic front developments can be good for the interior sections since they like to cut

while the SE Ridge is still in place. January 17, 1994 was the ultimate disappointment for

us along the coast.

 

[famartin]

These Arctic front developments can be good for the interior sections since they like to cut

while the SE Ridge is still in place. January 17, 1994 was the ultimate disappointment for

us along the coast.

 

011721.png

 

It was 33 with rain for hours in Trenton with that one.  Just west was bad ice.  It started as snow and then quickly transitioned to sleet and then freezing rain before the dreaded 33 and rain happened.  Ended as snow too.

[bluewave]

It was 33 with rain for hours in Trenton with that one.  Just west was bad ice.  It started as snow and then quickly transitioned to sleet and then freezing rain before the dreaded 33 and rain happened.  Ended as snow too.

 

A couple of days after was the last time my station dropped below zero. It was really cool too see how much

colder the temps were than the guidance especially heading west back into PA. I guess the old AVN MOS

couldn't handle the super CAA that morning.

[NEG NAO]

Unless you can get the PNA to go positive and stay positive for a reasonable time period - the pacific jet and the stubborn southeast ridge is going to dominate the pattern - meaning only brief shots of colder air  and storms that cut west of us...........and right now the PNA outlook is very uncertain

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

[bluewave]

Unless you can get the PNA to go positive and stay positive for a reasonable time period - the pacific jet and the stubborn southeast ridge is going to dominate the pattern - meaning only brief shots of colder air  and storms that cut west of us...........and right now the PNA outlook is very uncertain

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif

 

If the PNA falls again later in the month, then this will only be a transient cold shot. We really need

a positive PNA to lock in for a while to prevent the Pac Jet from breaking through.

[tombo82685]

If the PNA falls again later in the month, then this will only be a transient cold shot. We really need

a positive PNA to lock in for a while to prevent the Pac Jet from breaking through.

 

As of right now both the gefs and the euro ens, though delayed, rotate that pac ridge westward. Which then in terms brings back the -pna and you know the story from then. Need a solid -nao to combat that if it happens.

[Guest Pamela]

Since October 2012

Days 32 F or Below For Minimum

 

Islip: 35

Central Park: 16

LaGuardia: 10

[NEG NAO]

Since October 2012

Days 32 F or Below For Minimum

 

Islip: 35

Central Park: 16

LaGuardia: 10

 

where do they mount their thermometers at LaGuardia ?

[famartin]

where do they mount their thermometers at LaGuardia ?

 

http://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/KLGA