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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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tim

tim

Posted
Posted

Lee Goldberg is really interested in this championship game in Miami tonight, I'll assume it has nothing to do with the fact it is on ESPN, which is owned by ABC.

 

..whatever..more importantly he says cold arrives jan.18-19.

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Absolute Humidity

Absolute Humidity

Posted
Posted

Yeah...I'm used to it at this point...amazing how people just whine and whine after several terrific winters.

The thread title says it all. Eight out of the last twelve years have had average to well above average snowfall winters so many here are not conditioned to seeing a potential double dip torch. I certainly can't complain. I've already see about half of my 30 year average of snowfall to date and we're not even at the half way point. :)

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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted

The colder air is getting closer to us on the 6z gfs. It starts to push its way towards us at ~ 200 hrs. The pattern thereafter looked like it could deliver some wintry weather. Although it's still pretty far out, it is encouraging that the GFS has remained consistent with this look for some time now. Anyone know how the Euro turned out last night?

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

The colder air is getting closer to us on the 6z gfs. It starts to push its way towards us at ~ 200 hrs. The pattern thereafter looked like it could deliver some wintry weather. Although it's still pretty far out, it is encouraging that the GFS has remained consistent with this look for some time now. Anyone know how the Euro turned out last night?

Brings the front thorough on Monday. It stalls just to our south, then wave runs along it mid week . Looks to be a frozen threat for city north. Sne gets a snowstorm. Then after that the real cold comes in

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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
Posted

The Euro ens still isn't letting up with the -PNA by day 10 so the brunt of the cold following

the front around  the 17th goes by to our north. It leaves just enough of a SE Ridge in place.

 

attachicon.gif00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA240.gif

 

attachicon.gif00zecmwfenspna.gif

 

 

Thats a good pattern. Granted woudn't be brutal cold but you wouldn't have to worry much about supression till that pna went positive. Though, with a positive pna you get better chances of blockbusters storms do to the amplitude of the pattern.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Thats a good pattern. Granted woudn't be brutal cold but you wouldn't have to worry much about supression till that pna went positive. Though, with a positive pna you get better chances of blockbusters storms do to the amplitude of the pattern.

 

I think that it would probably favor the interior portions of our region and New England with the chance

that lows ride too close to the coast for I-95 SE. But we'll have to see how much of a SE Ridge remains

to know what the storm track would look like.

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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
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I think that it would probably favor the interior portions of our region and New England with the chance

that lows ride too close to the coast for I-95 SE. But we'll have to see how much of a SE Ridge remains

to know what the storm track would look like.

 

That look you posted seems like a storm track off the va capes or delmarva to. That pig of a pv isn't going to scoot right out. Like you stated as long as their is some sort of -pna with that se ridge, storms cutting further north can happen. All it would take would be a love of that pv to fall on the backside of that trof to really amplify things and it would scoot north.

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

Looks like three chances of snow for us over the next two weeks.  One next week on Wednesday if the Euro is right.  The GFS ensembles then have a few members that show a chance for us next Saturday, then two of the ensemble members show a big storm for the following Tuesday, which the Euro control run also shows at the same time and location, right between the two GFS member locations for the storm.  

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Looks like three chances of snow for us over the next two weeks.  One next week on Wednesday if the Euro is right.  The GFS ensembles then have a few members that show a chance for us next Saturday, then two of the ensemble members show a big storm for the following Tuesday, which the Euro control run also shows at the same time and location, right between the two GFS member locations for the storm.  

 

It sure looks like an interesting pattern will develop moving forward.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Looks like three chances of snow for us over the next two weeks.  One next week on Wednesday if the Euro is right.  The GFS ensembles then have a few members that show a chance for us next Saturday, then two of the ensemble members show a big storm for the following Tuesday, which the Euro control run also shows at the same time and location, right between the two GFS member locations for the storm.  

 

Only chance that should BEGIN to be taken seriously is the first one for the middle of next week - the other 2 are out in fantasy land............. also if you look at the AO - NAO - PNA outlooks the only one that is progged to stay negative by ALL ensemble members is the AO - the PNA and the NAO are  not............

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

Only chance that should BEGIN to be taken seriously is the first one for the middle of next week - the other 2 are out in fantasy land............. also if you look at the AO - NAO - PNA outlooks the only one that is progged to stay negative by ALL ensemble members is the AO - the PNA and the NAO are  not............

 

 

I really only think it is complete fantasy if you are looking at one model run out that far, but when you look at several different runs, or several different ensemble members, especially coming from two totally different models, such as the Euro and GFS showing something similar, then well, it is a touch less of a fantasy and just maybe there is something really there.  Of course it is a long way out, but why not look?  It is all for fun anyway.  

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Still a -NAO though. I don't know how people don't see a good pattern moving forward.

 

considering what has happened when we had favorable conditions in the past - doesn't guarantee a snowy pattern for us ......... many variables to consider here.............

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

It looks good, but the question is how long does it stay. It may be a transient shot or it could stay a while.

 

Doesn't the 06z GFS keep 850mb.'s  > 0C for another 216 hours?    The models have been chasing their own tails when it comes to an Artic outbreak since mid-Dec.   It is 10 days out, wait the ten days like a good boy should  and it is still 10 days away!    It could get here by Spring but not if we get a La Nina that is east based.    To me this all smacks of a "10-Day" winter during which everything winter like will happen, ala '82-83.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Hard to ask a pattern to go from plus 10 over a 10 day period right into the tank . I think next week will prob b normal , the a turn to cold week 4 and I wouldnt b surprised if its back to normal for a week then we go lower .

The models are showing you its probably more of a step down process than a complete turn, that would explian

the NAO prog over the 15 day period  being shown then pulling back .

Think this turns into a nice pattern but it may well evolve too slowly to make a lot of people happy .

 

 

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