Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[MJO812]

There is alot of cold air up north on the GFS and Euro.

[IsentropicLift]

I have not looked at the GFS only the ECM..but the ECM shows a SE ridge in place at Day 10.. And above normal 850 mb temp departures ..so do not think that the ECM is showing a pattern conducive to what most people want which is cold and snow

The 12z GFS is fairly different than the Euro at day 10. The GFS shows the SE ridge displaced fairly far to the east (Centered east of Bermuda) with a trough over the east, a ridge out west and a fairly favorable position of the PV just north of the great lakes into Canada. After day 10 though the PV begins retreating back to the NW and we end up in mainly zonal flow with seasonal temps and another cut off low developing in the SW by the end of the run.

[Allsnow]

Wish we could fast forward to spring.

[IsentropicLift]

Wish we could fast forward to spring.

If the Euro is correct you probably won't need to wait very long

[Juliancolton]

Wish we could fast forward to spring.

 

Your pain must be unbearable.

[jjvesnow]

If the Euro is correct you probably won't need to wait very long

 

I seriously must be missing something.  EURO shows a cold front sagging south of our area late Sunday/early Monday, returning temps back to close to normal.  GEFS show it maybe a day later or so. 

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

Your pain must be unbearable.

Absolutely no snow to plow, money down the drain. At least I can mow and mulch in spring

[famartin]

I seriously must be missing something.  EURO shows a cold front sagging south of our area late Sunday/early Monday, returning temps back to close to normal.  GEFS show it maybe a day later or so. 

 

You know you're in a warm pattern when a cold front blows through and you hope for "normal".

[NEG NAO]

I don't know what some people are looking at here - but the Euro is showing a developing positive NAO again later in the run going into day 10 after briefly going negative - until the EURO shows the cold air air and Negative NAO at day 9 -10 the pattern will not change much around here with that stubborn southeast ridge in place - GFS is fun to look at but the Euro is more reliable

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gifhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

[MJO812]

The euro doesn't look to bad IMO

[Allsnow]

You know you're in a warm pattern when a cold front blows through and you hope for "normal".

Looks like we are going to punt January. Our lonely eyes turn to you febuary

[Allsnow]

The euro doesn't look to bad IMO

It's pretty much what we had in December. So if that was good to you, enjoy

[SnoSki14]

Global warming has kicked into high gear, we can't even get temps in the teens anymore in January. It's the world we live in, more flooding, more hurricanes, less snow and I know we'd all take the snow over the devastation of flooding and hurricanes. 

[Isotherm]

Remember the monster west based -NAO the ECMWF had a couple days ago? We need to get back to a solution that depicts a stronger, west based NAO blocking. Without it, we will have a difficult time and probably wait longer in terms of getting the major cold to the East Coast.

 

The NCEP GFS MJO has a stronger amplitude MJO wave into phase 7, then weak phase 8, which could be way GFS based guidance is more impressive w/ pushing the cold into the East for the 15th+ period. The GFS is also MUCH more bullish on the NAO blocking for D8-10 which probably has its orgins in the more amplified tropical forcing as well.

 

GFS MJO guidance:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ncpe.shtml

 

 

Note the Euro kills it in phase 7, which would mean we're battling the SE ridge into later January and possibly writing this month off for colder than normal chances.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

[threeyoda]

Global warming has kicked into high gear, we can't even get temps in the teens anymore in January. It's the world we live in, more flooding, more hurricanes, less snow and I know we'd all take the snow over the devastation of flooding and hurricanes. 

 

It kicked into high gear in less than a year and a 1/2? How do you explain the winters of 08-09, 09-10, and 10-11? Just because we had a bad winter last year and this year hasn't been amazing so far doesn't mean global warming is in "high gear". Climate changes like that take decades or even centuries, not a year. 

[Edge Weather]

I don't know what some people are looking at here - but the Euro is showing a developing positive NAO again later in the run going into day 10 after briefly going negative - until the EURO shows the cold air air and Negative NAO at day 9 -10 the pattern will not change much around here with that stubborn southeast ridge in place - GFS is fun to look at but the Euro is more reliable

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gifhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

 

 

Right now the GFS actually has a higher verification score at day 10 and day 8. It is not until day 6 that the Euro finally pulls decidedly ahead. Actually, I think the breaking point is around day 7 usually in reality. After 7 days out it is really a crapshoot. Usually the ECMWF has an edge even at 8 days, but by day 10 there is really very little advantage to either model, and right now the GFS is actually doing better even at 8 days.

[bluewave]

The problem with the GFS in the long range is that it underestimates the strength of the SE Ridge

and the pattern verifies warmer than it was showing.

 

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Yeah, the GFS has proven to be the leader for this winter.

[Stormlover74]

Right. In 2009 people were saying Richmond and DC would not get snow anymore and that their climate was quickly being more similar to Atlantas. Then of course 2009-10 hit and everybody shut up. People were just saying how we're due for a a couple bad winters similar to the 80s. I agree it does seem like getting below 20 is hard to do even in the middle of January but that doesn't mean we won't in the future, whether it happens this winter or next.

It kicked into high gear in less than a year and a 1/2? How do you explain the winters of 08-09, 09-10, and 10-11? Just because we had a bad winter last year and this year hasn't been amazing so far doesn't mean global warming is in "high gear". Climate changes like that take decades or even centuries, not a year. 

[BxEngine]

Jesus christ you guys can cry with the best of them

[Snowshack]

Absolutely no snow to plow, money down the drain. At least I can mow and mulch in spring

 

Plowing is certainly a tough business in our area...feast or famine.

[earthlight]

Jesus christ you guys can cry with the best of them

 

Yeah...I'm used to it at this point...amazing how people just whine and whine after several terrific winters.

[Snowshack]

Looks like we are going to punt January. Our lonely eyes turn to you febuary

 

All we know for sure is that the next 10 days stink and then we'll be in a cooler pattern after the 15th or so...thats good enough this time of year for me not to write off the month

[CooL]

GFS looks incredible after the 15th.

[Snowshack]

GFS looks incredible after the 15th.

 

nice -nao on this run, and at least the timeframe is pulling closer

[Rtd208]

This.

 

 

Jesus christ you guys can cry with the best of them

 

 

Yeah...I'm used to it at this point...amazing how people just whine and whine after several terrific winters.

 

[MJO812]

18z GFS looks pretty.

[MJO812]

Looks like we are going to punt January. Our lonely eyes turn to you febuary

You are better than this .

[tmagan]

Lee Goldberg is really interested in this championship game in Miami tonight, I'll assume it has nothing to do with the fact it is on ESPN, which is owned by ABC.

[PB GFI]

Euro weeklies out , colder looking than Thrs nites run week 3 and week4