Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[NorEaster27]

This isn`t news dude . This is goin to be a  min 10 day warm up , it was not and will not break before the 21 st .

Has been modeled this way for the last week .

I havent really watched the models for the past few day, no real need in this pattern. I was suprised how bad it was given what I have been reading in the SNE forum.

[NEG NAO]

This isn`t news dude . This is goin to be a  min 10 day warm up , it was not and will not break before the 21 st .

Has been modeled this way for the last week .

 

I think the warm up will end before the 21st - only question is do we just go back to near normal temps or are the models telling the truth this time and we go below to much below normal ? I don't think anyone even those with a high skill level in meteorology can answer that with any certainty

[MikeS]

I will be in South Florida until the 19th, so I will be torching either way. Hopefully when I return, we can get back to below normal temps and some storms.

[PB GFI]

I think the warm up will end before the 21st - only question is do we just go back to near normal temps or are the models telling the truth this time and we go below to much below normal ? I don't think anyone even those with a high skill level in meteorology can answer that with any certainty

 

I think week 2 plus 10 but i think week 3 gets you to normal and week 4 should be below ,

I think the models were rushing the cold air back in too fast ,

Euro weeklies tonite , lets see if they agree with there Ensembles which takes the ridge into Alaska  in week 3 which should set up a colder week 4 in Jan.

[Isotherm]

As I said the other day, I'm confident about the -EPO and MWW induced -AO signalling but the exact NAO evolution is still debatable and might keep us waiting a bit longer than currently progged. The 00z Euro seemed to trash the idea of major -NAO blocking in the D6-10 range while the GFS hammers us post the 15th. Euro ensembles still have high heights on the east coast through the 17th or so. I'd like to see the 12z Euro return to the idea of building the NAO west based by D 5-7 as that will force the arctic front to the East Coast much quicker. The Euro solution would probably make it impossible to finish this month colder than normal.

The Central US major cold is pretty much a lock I'd say, but I'm a bit hesistant on the timing of the East Coast cold. A -AO and -EPO / neutral-neg PNA with no west based NAO will cause the cold to drag its feet in the Plains before spreading East. Given how this winter's gone so far, I'd like to see some consistency in the NAO, and that inconsistency might partially be due to the tropical forcing in the Pacific. Hopefully today's MJO guidance has a more amplified wave holding into phase 7. Strong phase 6 then dying into 7 won't do anything but give us near normal temps, no real huge change.         

[SnoSki14]

Either it's going to take a lot longer for the cold to come in or it will never really come in at all, the models are already backing off the negative NAO to some degree. 

[bluewave]

As I said the other day, I'm confident about the -EPO and MWW induced -AO signalling but the exact NAO evolution is still debatable and might keep us waiting a bit longer than currently progged. The 00z Euro seemed to trash the idea of major -NAO blocking in the D6-10 range while the GFS hammers us post the 15th. Euro ensembles still have high heights on the east coast through the 17th or so. I'd like to see the 12z Euro return to the idea of building the NAO west based by D 5-7 as that will force the arctic front to the East Coast much quicker. The Euro solution would probably make it impossible to finish this month colder than normal.

The Central US major cold is pretty much a lock I'd say, but I'm a bit hesistant on the timing of the East Coast cold. A -AO and -EPO / neutral-neg PNA with no west based NAO will cause the cold to drag its feet in the Plains before spreading East. Given how this winter's gone so far, I'd like to see some consistency in the NAO, and that inconsistency might partially be due to the tropical forcing in the Pacific. Hopefully today's MJO guidance has a more amplified wave holding into phase 7. Strong phase 6 then dying into 7 won't do anything but give us near normal temps, no real huge change.         

 

Yeah,the Euro really weakens the MJO in phase 7 before getting to the more favorable 8. The strongest

amplitude of the winter so far will be during the warmest phases before it becomes mostly incoherent

again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

already up to 44 here-definitely above guidance--upton had us near 40 for the high

[MJO812]

This weather sucks for January

[NaoPos]

You'd like to see the MJO in phase 7 with some meat to it as it trabsitions to 8-1. thats how the 09-10 was. (not calling for that exact set up), but the MJO kept cycling through 7-8-1 for us. Thing of beauty.

[bluewave]

You'd like to see the MJO in phase 7 with some meat to it as it trabsitions to 8-1. thats how the 09-10 was. (not calling for that exact set up), but the MJO kept cycling through 7-8-1 for us. Thing of beauty.

 

Right, the last time NYC dropped below 10 degrees was near the end of January 2011 when we had

a nice push into phase 8 before it ran out of steam.

 

 

 

 

[tmagan]

Last DJF month below normal T at KNYC, January 2011.

[Porsche]

You'd like to see the MJO in phase 7 with some meat to it as it trabsitions to 8-1. thats how the 09-10 was. (not calling for that exact set up), but the MJO kept cycling through 7-8-1 for us. Thing of beauty.

 

Anyone concerned the Euro is showing it dying in phase 7?

[Allsnow]

Anyone concerned the Euro is showing it dying in phase 7?

It was a pretty bad over night run of the euro. Hopefully we see some improvement this afternoon. 00z pretty much lost the nao. I really don't have much hope for January. Hope of avg snowfall fading fast

[tombo82685]

Yeah,the Euro really weakens the MJO in phase 7 before getting to the more favorable 8. The strongest

amplitude of the winter so far will be during the warmest phases before it becomes mostly incoherent

again.

 

 

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

 

combined_image.png

 

 

this is the phase 7 correlation to weather for january

 

[MJO812]

12z GEFS is cold through the whole run after the 16th

[Brian5671]

12z GEFS is cold through the whole run after the 16th

-

JUST 10 Short days away!!

[MJO812]

12z GEFS is cold through the whole run after the 16th

-

JUST 10 Short days away!!

 

9 days out

[Fantom X]

February 2011, I said that's enough, I'm getting a snowblower. Almost 2 years later, have not used it yet

[MJO812]

February 2011, I said that's enough, I'm getting a snowblower. Almost 2 years later, have not used it yet

 

Same

[bluewave]

this is the phase 7 correlation to weather for january

 

 

He may calculate the scales differently than the CPC does.

 

I like to use the CPC data for temperatures here when we get a decent wave going.

Generally the best phases for cold here DJF  are 8-3 and 4-7 is warm

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

 

 

 

[famartin]

His DJF phase 7 matches the CPC data better than that just for January for some reason. 

He may calculate the scales differently than the CPC does.

 

I like to use the CPC data for temperatures here when we get a decent wave going.

Generally the best phases for cold here DJF  are 8-3 and 4-7 is warm

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

 

 

DJFPhase7Strong.gif

 

I think Tom said its dependent by month, so if you only run Jan its different than if you include Dec and Feb.

[bluewave]

I think Tom said its dependent by month, so if you only run Jan its different than if you include Dec and Feb.

 

The CPC data centered on January matches what the euro is showing for phase 7 much better than

that chart with the cold entering the west and plains.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Looks like the Euro keeps getting worse and worse, now I'm hearing the nao is weakly positive in the long range. I won't get mad if this so called winter continues to suck because we're due for several clunker years. 

 

It is kind of bizarre how similar the events were from last fall and winter to this current one. We had a hurricane, an early season snowstorm, and a record warm December and now possibly January. The pattern may not be identical but the results are pretty close. I wasn't convinced about the similarities until we failed to bank on any opportunities in late December early January and now with the insane warmth coming up, it's inevitable. 

[bluewave]

Looks like the Euro keeps getting worse and worse, now I'm hearing the nao is weakly positive in the long range. I won't get mad if this so called winter continues to suck because we're due for several clunker years. 

 

It is kind of bizarre how similar the events were from last fall and winter to this current one. We had a hurricane, an early season snowstorm, and a record warm December and now possibly January. The pattern may not be identical but the results are pretty close. I wasn't convinced about the similarities until we failed to bank on any opportunities in late December early January and now with the insane warmth coming up, it's inevitable. 

 

This is looking like one of those winters when the advertised day 10 cold gets modified the closer that we

get. Euro is in full push back mode today. Notice how much further north in Canada the PV is going to be

than the Euro was forecasting a few days ago centered on next Monday.

 

 

[earthlight]

This is looking like one of those winters when the advertised day 10 cold gets modified the closer that we

get. Euro is in full push back mode today. Notice how much further north in Canada the PV is going to be

than the Euro was forecasting a few days ago centered on next Monday.

 

Speaking less about the cold, and more about the general pattern, the GEFS have been pretty useful this winter. They have not been falling victim to the Day 7-10 false signal that they sometimes are known for.

 

That being said, they have a good pattern developing for at least normal temperatures and potential for wintry weather here after Days 6-7. This has been moving up in time, so it is at least a glimmer of hope as we move forward. With the changes ongoing in the stratosphere and the tanking AO, I think the mood on this forum will be much different about 7 days from now. You can see the entire pattern reversal if you loop through these height anomalies at 500mb:

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

[PB GFI]

Gotta like its constant belief in a pos pna. The vortex will get forced south and east as the ridge over the top connects. It may take 10 days mayb 15 days. Let the pac sort itself and the atlantic side will catch up. Sometimes its just the case of the models correcting too fast. Hard to go from 60 nxt wknd into the abyss. Thinks its reasonable to expect a step down. Think its a full two week process.

[MJO812]

^^

GFS and Euro show the front coming through around the 16th. I don't know how people don't like the pattern moving forward .

[atownwxwatcher]

^^

GFS and Euro show the front coming through around the 16th. I don't know how people don't like the pattern moving forward .

 

I have not looked at the GFS only the ECM..but the ECM shows a SE ridge in place at Day 10.. And above normal 850 mb temp departures ..so do not think that the ECM is showing a pattern conducive to what most people want which is cold and snow

[IsentropicLift]

I have not looked at the GFS only the ECM..but the ECM shows a SE ridge in place at Day 10.. And above normal 850 mb temp departures ..so do not think that the ECM is showing a pattern conducive to what most people want which is cold and snow

If it's not going to snow I have no problem with 70's and sun. I hope we can at least get up into the upper 50's this weekend as it will get rid of most of the leftover snowpack still hanging around here. What's left is starting to get dirty and stale and it's time it either goes or gets covered with a fresh new layer, the latter which seems unlikely in the next two weeks.