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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

That is the point, I removed the gas from the snow thrower, put away the shovels and there were no more significant snowfalls the rest of that winter. I am not saying there will not be any significant snow the rest of the winter, but there is no use having them out there right now.

 

Ah, I thought it was some kind of reverse psychology kind of thing ;)

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

huh u will not see an inch of snow in the next 10 to 15 days. U do realize that this is a bonafide warm up coming. And there will b zero support for snow in ths area thru that period

If you read closely, I am talking about almost 2 weeks from now. Here is the EC ensemble mean for day 10 that just came out.

post-1914-0-95983600-1357505877_thumb.gi

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

huh u will not see an inch of snow in the next 10 to 15 days. U do realize that this is a bonafide warm up coming. And there will b zero support for snow in ths area thru that period

I am with you if you say in the next 8-9 days there will not be an inch of snow, but to take this out to 10-15 days might be a bit too much. Of course you could end up being right, but the breaking point may be around day 10, maybe. I also saw a meteorologist make a statement like this back in November that if anyone thought they would see a flake of snow with that storm they were crazy. Got 4 inches worth of flakes and some town in Monmouth County got 13 inches worth of flakes.
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Rtd208

Rtd208

Posted
Posted

I agree, I think 10-15 days is pushing it, 8-9 days seems much more reasonable. I personally think we should start getting much colder and hopefully stormier by the early and middle part of next week after this weeks warm up.

 

 

I am with you if you say in the next 8-9 days there will not be an inch of snow, but to take this out to 10-15 days might be a bit too much. Of course you could end up being right, but the breaking point may be around day 10, maybe. I also saw someone make a statement like this back in November that if anyone thought they would see a flake of snow with that storm they were crazy. Got 4 inches worth of flakes.

 

 

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Absolute Humidity

Absolute Humidity

Posted
Posted

I am with you if you say in the next 8-9 days there will not be an inch of snow, but to take this out to 10-15 days might be a bit too much. Of course you could end up being right, but the breaking point may be around day 10, maybe. I also saw a meteorologist make a statement like this back in November that if anyone thought they would see a flake of snow with that storm they were crazy. Got 4 inches worth of flakes and some town in Monmouth County got 13 inches worth of flakes.

Tickled in white.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I am with you if you say in the next 8-9 days there will not be an inch of snow, but to take this out to 10-15 days might be a bit too much. Of course you could end up being right, but the breaking point may be around day 10, maybe. I also saw a meteorologist make a statement like this back in November that if anyone thought they would see a flake of snow with that storm they were crazy. Got 4 inches worth of flakes and some town in Monmouth County got 13 inches worth of flakes.

That town is freehold just west of me here in colts neck. We got 10 here back in November , thought u were alluding to next week , so my bad

Crazy though to look out that far for any particular type of event , you will drive yourself crazy , disappoint yourself and I have come to understand these models bundle energy in the east Day 10 thru 15 on almost every run.

So I take day 7 plus proggs as a dice roll

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

That town is freehold just west of me here in colts neck. We got 10 here back in November , thought u were alluding to next week , so my bad

Crazy though to look out that far for any particular type of event , you will drive yourself crazy , disappoint yourself and I have come to understand these models bundle energy in the east Day 10 thru 15 on almost every run.

So I take day 7 plus proggs as a dice roll

I figured that you thought I was talking about next week. No, I enjoy looking out in the 10-15 day range for storms, based on various models and so on. It is definitely a roll of the dice, but it can be done. I have been taking that approach for years and it is possible to nail down a time frame on occasion based on various model trends. What I am usually looking for is for a model like the GFS to nail down a storm on one out of every 4 runs in a given time period for several days straight, or 3 out of every 4 days in a given time period on at least 1 run out of 4 per day. That is often an indication that something is up, especially if the model can manage to produce the storm in the same general location at about the same time. That is what I enjoy. It is not easy and definitely does not always work, but sometimes it does, and it is cool when it does. I get a kick out of trying to predict the future, which is what I think we all enjoy doing. What other hobby is it possible to predict the future? It is cool. Anyway, I think there is good track record now of the models showing a storm somewhere near our area the middle to end of next week. Details are not there yet though and it will be a function of how far that cold front can sink south. Right now it looks safe to say that the front will probably sink just south of us by then, but it is not safe to say that the cold air will be locked in enough so that it does not get pushed back north and west of us when the storm develops in Gulf and rides east up the coast or just inland of the coast. Will it take a just inland track, or a track more to our south and east? I feel there will be a storm, just that we don't know the details yet. It is too far out. I would definitely watch the period from next Wednesday through next Saturday though for our next potential.

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

I love how the model again manages to produce a rather potent storm in the southern US again around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, with Canada covered by two high pressure areas, one a 1056mb high and one a 1055mb high, but the GFS intensifies the low pressure area, while driving it right into those high pressure areas. Yeah right. Where have we seen this before? If there are really two 1055mb highs covering Canada like that at the same time that a strong low pressure area develops over the south next week, we may very well be in business by around Thursday of next week because that storm would have to re-develop along the coast. Unless I am missing something.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

I love how the model again manages to produce a rather potent storm in the southern US again around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, with Canada covered by two high pressure areas, one a 1056mb high and one a 1055mb high, but the GFS intensifies the low pressure area, while driving it right into those high pressure areas. Yeah right. Where have we seen this before. If there are really two 1055mb highs covering Canada like that at the same time that a strong low pressure area develops over the south next week, we may very well be in business by around Thursday of next week because that storm would have to re-develop along the coast. Unless I am missing something.

 

Well, if there was a ridge aloft blocking the storm I could see what you say being correct, but these are surface highs.  They are simply a function of confluence aloft, which may or may not relate to a block.  Remember, most of what drives storms is aloft, not at the surface; the surface is only a reflection. 

 

This depicts an event not too dissimilar, with the surface low moving almost due north towards two areas of strong high pressure in Canada.  Not quite as strong as the GFS depicts, but in the 1040+ range. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0123.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0124.php

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

Well, if there was a ridge aloft blocking the storm I could see what you say being correct, but these are surface highs.  They are simply a function of confluence aloft, which may or may not relate to a block.  Remember, most of what drives storms is aloft, not at the surface; the surface is only a reflection. 

 

This depicts an event not too dissimilar, with the surface low moving almost due north towards two areas of strong high pressure in Canada.  Not quite as strong as the GFS depicts, but in the 1040+ range. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0123.php

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1999/us0124.php

Thanks for the info. I don't know a lot about the details like that. As a hobby, I just mainly analyze the models and typically when I have seen two highs of that magnitude it leads to re-development, but I am not expert in the details like that. Thanks for the info.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

EC ensembles bring the deep freeze into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes mid-month before spreading into the east by the 18th. Some deep arctic air but the brunt of the cold seems established a bit west, perhaps coming in spurts a couple to few days at a time. Prior to then, 1/11 - 1/13 look quite warm potential record (maybe).

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

I'm not buying the late January pattern change for us, I think the middle of the country will see very cold weather and plenty of snow but not here due to the strong SE ridge. I think the SE ridge will be stronger than we think and it will provide major resistance to the cold as those ridges then to be underestimated. 

 

Big cold waves the models show 10 days out are always muted so I expect more of the same. We'll probably end up being near normal at best by late January which I guess is good considering we might see some 60s this week.

 

I'll believe it when I see it and I'm not convinced, the NAO and AO have been shown to be negative several times already and we still got screwed because of the pacific and PNA. And just like before the NAO and AO may head negative but so will the PNA so we get an unfavorable snow pattern for the most part. The mild weather should be very nice and enjoyable and by late January, the averages start to rise once more. 

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NorEaster27

NorEaster27

Posted
Posted

People are assuming (incorrectly) that after this torch all of a sudden we are going to lock into a cold and snowy pattern. I dont see that happening at all. Sure we will cool down back to normal and maybe below but no one knows how long that will last. Overall Jan on a whole is going to go down as a torch as did December.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

I have been saying this all season - long range models have been bullish on the pattern change to neg nao/ao colder snowier and then when you get in a shorter change they start backing off - unfortunately alot of people listen to some high profile mets we all know and either love or hate who start honking to drum up business and keep making the same mistake either by design or some other reason -lets see if the the Euro continues to "delay" the arctic outbreak like it did last night at day 10 in future runs .........still we have a 11/12 ish feel to this season and if we don't get any snow accumulation by the  21st we will be at or below the snow amounts up to that date last season in sections of the metro...........

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

The 0z OP Euro was a torch for at least the next 240hrs. Lets hope thats not the trend of the models this week.

This isn`t news dude . This is goin to be a  min 10 day warm up , it was not and will not break before the 21 st .

Has been modeled this way for the last week .

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