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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

1956...21.1"...11.6"...6.5"...

1958...15.9"...11.8"...4.7"...

1959.....6.7".....5.5"...

1960...18.5"...14.5"...

1964.....6.0".....4.9"...

1967...17.4".....9.8"...

 

Wow Uncle, what a great 10 yr stretch for March snow..

 

That was back during the era when we actually got cold Marches here.

 

 

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted


"Real winter" starts north of a line from Boston to Danbury to the Delaware Water Gap / Stroudsburg, PA. Snowfall mean is 40" or greater north of that line and it is just cold enough on average that there is snow cover most years for many days during the winter. Everything south of that line is in the transitional zone / except for really high mountains like in MD or PA.   

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

That was back during the era when we actually got cold Marches here.

 

attachicon.gif5667.png

 

attachicon.gif0112.png

 

Biggest snowfalls

21.0" 3/12-14/1888

18.1" 3/7-8/1941

14.5" 3/3-4/1960

14.5" 3/1-2/1914

12.0" 3/15-16/1896

11.8" 3/20-21/1958

11.6" 3/18-19/1956

10.6" 3/13-14/1993

10.0" 3/2/1896

..9.8" 3/21-22/1967    

major storms are hard to come in March...that makes the period from 1956 to 1967 so amazing...March 57 comes in like a lion with 3" of snow...March 1968 came in like a lion with 6.6" of wet snow that started as rain the day before...Early March 1969 had a storm with 30" in Port Jervis NY...12" in Atlantic City but only 3" in NYC...It was an all snow event...We were in between the heavy stuff...A few days later another storm passed to far south for a major storm but did dump 3 more inches...  March 1971 had a major storm early in the month...It was mostly rain in the city but started and ended as snow...   1960, 1964 and 1968 had leep year snow on February 29th...

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Having the euro and euro ensembles on our side is probably more important than the gfs.

 

The PNA is so horrendous on today's Euro late in the run that it's still a warm pattern here despite the block. Looks like we will need at least some cooperation from the Pacific in order to turn things around for us.

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tombo82685

tombo82685

Posted
Posted

The PNA is so horrendous on today's Euro late in the run that it's still a warm pattern here despite the block. Looks like we will need at least some cooperation from the Pacific in order to turn things around for us.

 

 

Agreed, need that pac ridge to shift east. Euro's position would still argue for the presence of the se ridge, despite that -nao.

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Absolute Humidity

Absolute Humidity

Posted
Posted

Biggest snowfalls

21.0" 3/12-14/1888

18.1" 3/7-8/1941

14.5" 3/3-4/1960

14.5" 3/1-2/1914

12.0" 3/15-16/1896

11.8" 3/20-21/1958

11.6" 3/18-19/1956

10.6" 3/13-14/1993

10.0" 3/2/1896

..9.8" 3/21-22/1967

major storms are hard to come in March...that makes the period from 1956 to 1967 so amazing...March 57 comes in like a lion with 3" of snow...March 1968 came in like a lion with 6.6" of wet snow that started as rain the day before...Early March 1969 had a storm with 30" in Port Jervis NY...12" in Atlantic City but only 3" in NYC...It was an all snow event...We were in between the heavy stuff...A few days later another storm passed to far south for a major storm but did dump 3 more inches... March 1971 had a major storm early in the month...It was mostly rain in the city but started and ended as snow... 1960, 1964 and 1968 had leep year snow on February 29th...

Didn't S.I. Receive 10" on March 1 - 3, 2009? I know we had anywhere from 10" to 15" here in Monmouth.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

I think most folks hope that the tranquil weather pattern continues here in NYC metro so the recovery from Sandy can continue without interruption - 1 or 2 severe nor'easters could set them back weeks or months since it won't  take much to flood those areas again.....

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

Posted
Posted

12z GFS has a pretty potent storm developing next week around 240 hrs out, and this is pretty much the same storm we talked about a few days ago, when it was at around 300 hrs. So, the models still have it, it is just a timing and placement issue at this point as to how far east that front gets and when the storm develops. The GFS develops it on Wednesday and brings it through Georgia, then bombs it into the Eastern Great Lakes down to 970mb, bringing us heavy flooding rains on Wednesday and Thursday next week. The Euro control run (more or less the extended version of the Euro run in much lower resolution)also develops the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, but not until Friday (two days later than the GFS), so there is more cold air in place in our area, and just like the GFS runs it through Georgia, but then off the coast near Cape Hatteras, where it then turns north off the coast on Saturday,with plenty of cold air in place in our area, with 850's at -5 and surface temps in the upper 20's. So, there continues to be decent agreement on the cold air working it's way into our area early next week and a storm developing, but there are still significant differences on timing. The GFS produces a massive flooding rainstorm on Wednesday into Thursday of next week, while the European Control run produces a significant Nor'easter snowstorm in our area the Saturday after next. We shall see.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

12z GFS has a pretty potent storm developing next week around 240 hrs out, and this is pretty much the same storm we talked about a few days ago, when it was at around 300 hrs. So, the models still have it, it is just a timing and placement issue at this point as to how far east that front gets and when the storm develops. The GFS develops it on Wednesday and brings it through Georgia, then bombs it into the Eastern Great Lakes down to 970mb, bringing us heavy flooding rains on Wednesday and Thursday next week. The Euro control run (more or less the extended version of the Euro run in much lower resolution)also develops the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, but not until Friday (two days later than the GFS), so there is more cold air in place in our area, and just like the GFS runs it through Georgia, but then off the coast near Cape Hatteras, where it then turns north off the coast on Saturday,with plenty of cold air in place in our area, with 850's at -5 and surface temps in the upper 20's. So, there continues to be decent agreement on the cold air working it's way into our area early next week and a storm developing, but there are still significant differences on timing. The GFS produces a massive flooding rainstorm on Wednesday into Thursday of next week, while the European Control run produces a significant Nor'easter snowstorm in our area the Saturday after next. We shall see.

 

considering how bad the GFS has been past day 5 this season maybe even day 3 - can't even seriously consider any storms it has out past then.............

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

12z GFS has a pretty potent storm developing next week around 240 hrs out, and this is pretty much the same storm we talked about a few days ago, when it was at around 300 hrs. So, the models still have it, it is just a timing and placement issue at this point as to how far east that front gets and when the storm develops. The GFS develops it on Wednesday and brings it through Georgia, then bombs it into the Eastern Great Lakes down to 970mb, bringing us heavy flooding rains on Wednesday and Thursday next week. The Euro control run (more or less the extended version of the Euro run in much lower resolution)also develops the storm in the Gulf of Mexico, but not until Friday (two days later than the GFS), so there is more cold air in place in our area, and just like the GFS runs it through Georgia, but then off the coast near Cape Hatteras, where it then turns north off the coast on Saturday,with plenty of cold air in place in our area, with 850's at -5 and surface temps in the upper 20's. So, there continues to be decent agreement on the cold air working it's way into our area early next week and a storm developing, but there are still significant differences on timing. The GFS produces a massive flooding rainstorm on Wednesday into Thursday of next week, while the European Control run produces a significant Nor'easter snowstorm in our area the Saturday after next. We shall see.

huh u will not see an inch of snow in the next 10 to 15 days. U do realize that this is a bonafide warm up coming. And there will b zero support for snow in ths area thru that period
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tmagan

tmagan

Posted
Posted

It did?  I don't remember much happening last year after late January.

 

That is the point, I removed the gas from the snow thrower, put away the shovels and there were no more significant snowfalls the rest of that winter. I am not saying there will not be any significant snow the rest of the winter, but there is no use having them out there right now.

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