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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

When I first saw Mondays Euro weeklies I was in that camp too  , but when  the Euro weeklies came to the CFS  last nite I thnk the warm up is 2 weeks not the whole month .

 

The canadanian cold will migrate out west fist . but the core of the coldest air , ( see bluewave ) is forecasted day 10 on our side of the pole , and that didnt happen one time last year .

So once that trof comes back east around the 20th , we are goin to have some real air to deal with .

What happens after that is too far to really see .

 

The last time that we had the coldest air was all the way back during the beginning of February 2011

when Oklahoma set the record for their coldest temperature. It will be interesting to see how much

cold and Arctic high pressure the Euro builds over NW Canada the next 10 days or so. NYC was able

to briefly dip below 10 degrees about a week or two before that record low.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

The last time that we had the coldest air was all the way back during the beginning of February 2011

when Oklahoma set the record for their coldest temperature. It will be interesting to see how much

cold and Arctic high pressure the Euro builds over NW Canada the next 10 days or so. NYC was able

to briefly dip below 10 degrees about a week or two before that record low.

 

The block on the Euro week 4 isnt as intense as you would wana see, but it looked much better than Mondays run ( where it showed nothing ) , hoping its the begining of a trend  onthe EURO and will be interested to see its week 3 look Monday .

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The block on the Euro week 4 isnt as intense as you would wana see, but it looked much better than Mondays run ( where it showed nothing ) , hoping its the begining of a trend  onthe EURO and will be interested to see its week 3 look Monday .

 

We would need the PNA to rise enough to let the PV drop down from around NW Canada

in 10 days or so to a position south of James Bay between January 20-31.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

We would need the PNA to rise enough to let the PV drop down from around NW Canada

in 10 days or so to a position south of James Bay between January 20-31.

The CFS brings the cold back after the 16 th , I think that's a little aggressive. The Euro weeklies point to week 4 say around the 23 rd , which is probably more reasonable .

Was reading Alan Huffman he doesn't think u get a PNA spike til the later period. So I like your time frame .

I will not b unhappy with a week of 50s if there's a payoff at the end the road

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

I can't quite see how one could be happy with the GFS when the 6z run takes 10 to 12 days to push a simple cold front through in the dead of winter...

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

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54 days until March 1st....at one time, I was a big defender of March as a winter month...over the last 5 years, I am starting to wonder...save for the first 48 hours in 2009...March has produced zip during that span. What is *more* disturbing is that it has not even been close to producing...I can't even recall SNE having anything significant recently in that month...save for the March 1-2, 2009 storm.

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

54 days until March 1st....at one time, I was a big defender of March as a winter month...over the last 5 years, I am starting to wonder...save for the first 48 hours in 2009...March has produced zip during that span. What is *more* disturbing is that it has not even been close to producing...I can't even recall SNE having anything significant recently in that month...save for the March 1-2, 2009 storm.

 

Each other month from October to February produced a top ten snowiest since 2010 here.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Each other month from October to February produced a top ten snowiest since 2010 here.

 

With 147 mostly crappy winters on the books, is it really such a big accomplishment?

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Snowshack

Snowshack

Posted
Posted

54 days until March 1st....at one time, I was a big defender of March as a winter month...over the last 5 years, I am starting to wonder...save for the first 48 hours in 2009...March has produced zip during that span. What is *more* disturbing is that it has not even been close to producing...I can't even recall SNE having anything significant recently in that month...save for the March 1-2, 2009 storm.

 

Since we've seen some pre-season wintry events the last two years, it stands to reason that sooner or later we'll see some March events again as well.

 

I like March events that follow a wintry February, and potentially extend days of snowcover or continue the overall wintry feel.  The great '95/'96 had that.  '11/'12 could have used a good March.  But if Feb is a dud, Id rather not even see the slushy couple of inches in March with subsequent days in the 40's and 50's. 

 

Hopefully the late month potential delivers, although it sure seems as though we need alot of things to break in our favor once again.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

the best March's were...(4" storms or more)...1960 was the coldest......
1956...21.1"...11.6"...6.5"...
1958...15.9"...11.8"...4.7"...
1959.....6.7".....5.5"...
1960...18.5"...14.5"...
1964.....6.0".....4.9"...
1967...17.4".....9.8"...

1968.....6.1".....6.6"...2/29 to 3/1... 5.5" 3/1
1970.....4.0".....4.0"...
1976.....4.4".....4.2"...
1978.....6.8".....5.0"...
1980.....4.6".....4.6"...
1981.....8.6".....8.6"...
1984...11.9".....6.9"...
1992.....9.4".....6.2"...
1993...11.9"...10.2"...
1994.....8.1".....5.0"...
1996...13.2".....4.6".....4.5".....4.1"...
1999.....4.5".....4.5"...
2004.....4.8".....4.0"...
2005.....6.9".....7.7"...2/28 to 3/1 ... 2.9" 3/1
2007.....5.5".....5.5"...
2009.....8.3".....8.3"...         

 

Since we've seen some pre-season wintry events the last two years, it stands to reason that sooner or later we'll see some March events again as well.

 

I like March events that follow a wintry February, and potentially extend days of snowcover or continue the overall wintry feel.  The great '95/'96 had that.  '11/'12 could have used a good March.  But if Feb is a dud, Id rather not even see the slushy couple of inches in March with subsequent days in the 40's and 50's. 

 

Hopefully the late month potential delivers, although it sure seems as though we need alot of things to break in our favor once again.

 

 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Since we've seen some pre-season wintry events the last two years, it stands to reason that sooner or later we'll see some March events again as well.

 

I like March events that follow a wintry February, and potentially extend days of snowcover or continue the overall wintry feel.  The great '95/'96 had that.  '11/'12 could have used a good March.  But if Feb is a dud, Id rather not even see the slushy couple of inches in March with subsequent days in the 40's and 50's. 

 

Hopefully the late month potential delivers, although it sure seems as though we need alot of things to break in our favor once again.

 

The PNA and EPO is so atrocious that even a block in Greenland like the one advertised on the Euro late in the run does nothing to end the SE Ridge and endless cutters. With our luck, the +PNA will come back in time for the NAO block to disappear and we go cold/dry.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

March 1958 was an absolute monster here in Westchester and had two 12"+ storms, both later in the month, following a very snowy and cold Feb 1958. March 1960 was also great with the storm early in the month dumping 28" in Dobbs Ferry. 

 

It's true that March has been a disappointment lately, and I can understand why some are becoming disillusioned. The last solid March was 2005...my favorite was March 2004 which had two 6"+ events around the equinox. 

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

March 1958 was an absolute monster here in Westchester and had two 12"+ storms, both later in the month, following a very snowy and cold Feb 1958. March 1960 was also great with the storm early in the month dumping 28" in Dobbs Ferry. 

 

It's true that March has been a disappointment lately, and I can understand why some are becoming disillusioned. The last solid March was 2005...my favorite was March 2004 which had two 6"+ events around the equinox. 

 

I remember March 1956 and 58 faintly..1960 is still fresh in my mind...14" with heavy drifts made it seem bigger...Was supposed to change to rain...Record cold followed the storm...March 67 had a snowy period from the 15th to 22nd...3" on 3/17 with temps in the teens most of the day...NYC had single digit temps on the 18th while other places went below zero...1993 was the last great March and 2005 wasn't bad...

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