Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[MJO812]

Check out the AO on the 18z GFS

 

[Edge Weather]

The Euro control run is usually very similar to the operational run under almost all circumstances.  It is basically like the main ensemble member 1 of the GFS run, which is usually very similar to the main GFS run, but is run at lower resolution, and it goes out to 360 hrs.  I only find it interesting because it does extend the Euro out in lower resolution to 360 hrs, and within the 240 hr time frame it does usually look very similar to the operational run.  When it looks different though within the 240 hr time frame it can sometimes indicate that the operational run is wrong, although usually it is the other way around, but not always.  In this case it is just interesting because it does show something very similar to the GFS run around 300 hrs out and it shows the end to the warmth next weekend also, so basically it is agreeing with the GFS.  Honestly, I don't ever recall seeing this much agreement between the two, ever. 

[Edge Weather]

It is a run that Accuweather pro shows, ABC1234 loves it. I do remember years ago when we had a big storm it actually sniffed it out first.

 

I really don't love it.  I just use it as another tool, with all the other guidance, but we don't have much that goes out past 10 days.  I prefer the GFS by far when going out past 10 days, but it is just interesting how similar the two are this time, that is all.  It is interesting when it is substantially different within the 10 day period though, because on occasion it is sniffing something out that the operational run is messing up.  Doesn't happen often, but one big time that it did was with the October 29, 2011 storm, it sniffed out that the operational run of the Euro was messing it up a bit when we were out like 8-9 days or so with that particular storm, but it does not do that often. 

[PB GFI]

They come out twice a week every Monday and Thursday. It is not a new run of the Euro it is the weeklies.

Its the new weekly run. Its thrs nite.

[Edge Weather]

12z Canadian ensemble mean also looks good in the same time range as the Euro Control run and the 18z GFS, with a low in similar position.

[FPizz]

Is anyone else not seeing the red for a met or green for a mod now on their phones? I have been having trouble the last few days seeing that and even scrolling through pages has been off. You can move this post, I just wanted to see what the deal was.

[Allsnow]

Is anyone else not seeing the red for a met or green for a mod now on their phones? I have been having trouble the last few days seeing that and even scrolling through pages has been off. You can move this post, I just wanted to see what the deal was.

Soft wear upgrade. Minor issues. They are working on them.

[FPizz]

Thanks just saw the main page thread. Sorry for the OT

[earthlight]

Soft wear upgrade. Minor issues. They are working on them.

 

This is up there with that time I posted "Anal Log 96"

[WintersGrasp]

Soft wear upgrade. Minor issues. They are working on them.

This is up there with that time I posted "Anal Log 96"

Lol...great stuff

[BxEngine]

This is up there with that time I posted "Anal Log 96"

Combining the two can make for a decent toilet paper commercial.

[JonClaw]

Just when I was all ready to commit weenie suicide, the Euro and GFS decide to play mind games.

However, seeing the both of them agree on a better long range pattern is relieving.

 

Also, I was just pondering about something:  by what year might we see forecasting models with excellent (near perfect) accuracy within 10 days? Our lifetime?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just when I was all ready to commit weenie suicide, the Euro and GFS decide to play mind games.

However, seeing the both of them agree on a better long range pattern is relieving.

 

Also, I was just pondering about something:  by what year might we see forecasting models with excellent (near perfect) accuracy within 10 days? Our lifetime?

 

Yeah we are back in the game if the big guys are to believed the second half of the month.

 

As far as perfect model verification at 10 days? I would have to say humanity may have axed itself before that ever happens. Near perfect (better then 75%) I think the younger folks on here will see that even the slightly older like myself. Interesting question regardless!

[IsentropicLift]

The way the gov't is cutting federal spending on the NWS and other science, probably not in our lifetimes as far as the American models are concerned, but perhaps out of Europe. They are already surperiour.

[MJO812]

GFS still shows a cold and active pattern in the mid to long range.

[PB GFI]

GFS still shows a cold and active pattern in the mid to long range.

Ant, it's warm in the mid range. All guidance points to that. Even the GFS. After monday The cold doesnt get back here until week 3 or 4 Not before then .

You are dumping the trof in the west for at least a week Then the models hint in the Longer range.

Patience

[Allsnow]

This is up there with that time I posted "Anal Log 96"

It's my dam iPhone. Software

[tim]

..lee goldberg(last nite @11pm)

winter makes a big comeback for the 2nd half

of january..

[PB GFI]

I will gladly take 50s next wknd along with a 2 week nice stretch if it means we hav a shot for a bigger change in week 3 and 4 . I am really only comfortable looking out 2 weeks max. After that think the spray is just too wide to take seriously.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I will gladly take 50s next wknd along with a 2 week nice stretch if it means we hav a shot for a bigger change in week 3 and 4 . I am really only comfortable looking out 2 weeks max. After that think the spray is just too wide to take seriously.

Yeah, same here. This change actually looks legitimate to me.

[IsentropicLift]

Big storm chances at the end of the 06z GFS. Fantastic ridge over the plains, this storm misses us, but looking at the setup at 500mb there is plenty of room for this to develop further south.

 

 

[WintersGrasp]

Big storm chances at the end of the 06z GFS. Fantastic ridge over the plains, this storm misses us, but looking at the setup at 500mb there is plenty of room for this to develop further south.

I love how all of this began happening after I made my call that I seemed crazy for lol.....for many of us to have our average seasonal snowfall totals by February 1st

[IsentropicLift]

I love how all of this began happening after I made my call that I seemed crazy for lol.....for many of us to have our average seasonal snowfall totals by February 1st

Still a long shot, you have the 300hr GFS on your side. Lets see what happens by the end of next week.

[NEG NAO]

significant change to the negative side in  the AO forecast - that 11/12 ish feeling I have been talking about may start fading soon

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

[SnowGoose69]

significant change to the negative side in  the AO forecast - that 11/12 ish feeling I have been talking about may start fading soon

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

 

The 12Z GFS if you look right before it truncates you can clearly see a -NAO up by Greenland developing and its evident til the end of the run.  That trough from the west though is very stubborn moving east.  I could see it not reaching the East Coast til the 20th.  The -NAO though may help to pound down the SE ridge somewhat.

[bluewave]

The 12Z GFS if you look right before it truncates you can clearly see a -NAO up by Greenland developing and its evident til the end of the run.  That trough from the west though is very stubborn moving east.  I could see it not reaching the East Coast til the 20th.  The -NAO though may help to pound down the SE ridge somewhat.

 

An interesting feature on last night's Euro run was it actually showing the main NH PV on

our side of the globe. It has been a rarity to get the coldest NH temperatures during the winter

over NOAM. Much of the coldest Arctic air has been stuck on the Eurasian Continent during recent

years. 

 

Pattern looks like it first wants to spill west mid-month then potentially get dragged eastward later

in the month.

 

[SnoSki14]

We're still talking 10+ days out before the models see any changes, which the gfs has been pushing back every run. I think eventually the trough will reach the east but will it be muted once again? Will it last a week and then another 2-3 week warm up. I'm hopeful but very skeptical. Right now I think anything beyond Day 5 is pure fantasy. 

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z GFS was not nearly as favorable as the last few runs. It cuts off the trough out west underneath the ridge and screws everything up.

[SnowGoose69]

The 12z GFS was not nearly as favorable as the last few runs. It cuts off the trough out west underneath the ridge and screws everything up.

 

It lost the cutter to drive the trough east, not a surprise, that storm is coming into the GFS losing storm range right now.  That cutter is actually beneficial because it helps to push the trough to the East Coast, without it the whole thing is delayed 5 days.

[PB GFI]

We're still talking 10+ days out before the models see any changes, which the gfs has been pushing back every run. I think eventually the trough will reach the east but will it be muted once again? Will it last a week and then another 2-3 week warm up. I'm hopeful but very skeptical. Right now I think anything beyond Day 5 is pure fantasy. 

 

When I first saw Mondays Euro weeklies I was in that camp too  , but when  the Euro weeklies came to the CFS  last nite I thnk the warm up is 2 weeks not the whole month .

 

The canadanian cold will migrate out west fist . but the core of the coldest air , ( see bluewave ) is forecasted day 10 on our side of the pole , and that didnt happen one time last year .

So once that trof comes back east around the 20th , we are goin to have some real air to deal with .

What happens after that is too far to really see .