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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

I get the feeling that come mid January....we will be tracking several possible massive storms, be entering a deep freeze and by the end of January, we will have gotten our seasonal snowfall averages already. So yes....i am feeling that many of us will get 10-20"+ of snow between january 14th and january 31st. Yes....bigtime thinking, but remember these thoughts ;)

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

I get the feeling that come mid January....we will be tracking several possible massive storms, be entering a deep freeze and by the end of January, we will have gotten our seasonal snowfall averages already. So yes....i am feeling that many of us will get 10-20"+ of snow between january 14th and january 31st. Yes....bigtime thinking, but remember these thoughts ;)

 

Can I please have whatever you're smoking because that must be some good ****! If you want to look on the brightside, the Euro and the GFS both backed down some on the extent of the warmth for next week. Looks like 50's now instead of pushing record warmth, but that could still change. The pattern for the long range seems to be dominate by the PV over Eastern Canada with no big storms on the horizon like the models had been showing for the past few weeks.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
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We're just now starting to get into the real heart of the snow season which for me is from about Christmas through President's Day weekend. Before that, or towards the last week in February it starts to become increasingly difficult to get a big storm up this way. I'm already starting to notice that it's ever so much brighter on my way home from work at 5 than it was 10 days or so ago. The two minutes a day adds up quickly.

 

After a stint in phases 1 & 2 during December, the MJO has moved into the more unfavorable phases of 3 & 4 with no real signs of improving.

obs_phase40_full.gif

 

So what hope do we have? Well for starters, the NAO seems to be moving back towards neutral, or possibly even slightly negative.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

The PNA has had its forecasted spike. The problem is that the ridge axis is too far west. This in turn pumps up the SE ridge and floods the eastern third of the country with warm air. At last, a nice piece of energy drops down into the trough and amplifies over the central plains, but with the big SE ridge in place, the system is pushed into the great lakes and we remain in a warm SW flow.

 

pna.mrf.obs.gif

 

 

 

 

 

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

 

He starts by saying "This model has been all over the place" which to me doesn't give his article much value. Might as well wait and give it a few days.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

The PNA has had its forecasted spike. The problem is that the ridge axis is too far west. This in turn pumps up the SE ridge and floods the eastern third of the country with warm air. At last, a nice piece of energy drops down into the trough and amplifies over the central plains, but with the big SE ridge in place, the system is pushed into the great lakes and we remain in a warm SW flow.

 

pna.mrf.obs.gif

 

Actually the problem is that most projections show it won't stay positive for long.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

He starts by saying "This model has been all over the place" which to me doesn't give his article much value. Might as well wait and give it a few days.

 

You can pretty much take the anomalous warmth through mid-month to the bank and cash the check.

Beyond that point we are going to have to wait and see.

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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12z GEFS were gorgeous after Days 7-10...awesome blocking signal and the PV sinking south into a perfect position with a nice PNA spike.

 

The Euro Control run, which goes out to 360 hrs also looks quite nice after 240 hrs, with a very similar threat in the 300 hr range with a Miller B.  Actual placement of the lows on both the extended GFS and Euro Control run are amazingly similar in timing and placement considering that we are looking out in time about 300 hrs.  It is rare, in fact I don't recall seeing anything in the past as similar as this, that far out in time, with both models at virtually the same time.  It is quite interesting.  And for the person that said they don't know why they run the GFS out in time past 10 days, when there is going to be a large disturbance at some time out past 10 days, I have seen the models catch on to it, as far out as 14 days.  October 29, 2011 for instance.  The GFS nailed that one 14 days out, and had it on basically one run out of four each day until it occurred.  What I don't recall is seeing BOTH the Euro control run and the GFS show something as similar as is showing up currently on the models at around 300 hrs out at the same time.  They both show this current warm trend ending next weekend, with big winter type storm threats thereafter.  Very interesting to say the least. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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The Euro Control run, which goes out to 360 hrs also looks quite nice after 240 hrs, with a very similar threat in the 300 hr range with a Miller B.  Actual placement of the lows on both the extended GFS and Euro Control run are amazingly similar in timing and placement considering that we are looking out in time about 300 hrs.  It is rare, in fact I don't recall seeing anything in the past as similar as this, that far out in time, with both models at virtually the same time.  It is quite interesting.  And for the person that said they don't know why they run the GFS out in time past 10 days, when there is going to be a large disturbance at some time out past 10 days, I have seen the models catch on to it, as far out as 14 days.  October 29, 2011 for instance.  The GFS nailed that one 14 days out, and had it on basically one run out of four each day until it occurred.  What I don't recall is seeing BOTH the Euro control run and the GFS shows something as similar as is showing up currently on the models at around 300 hrs at the same time.  They both show this current warm trend ending next weekend, with big storm threats thereafter.  Very interesting to say the least. 

 

The 12/24 storm was pretty well seen this year too from day 10 or 12 you knew some sort of storm was going to happen.  The GFS beyond Day 10 is useful when it continually shows the same sort of pattern run to run for 2-3 days and it has definitely done that here this week.  I'd expect some sort of western ridge/eastern trof pattern beyond Day 10.

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bluewave

bluewave

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Posted

The Euro Control run, which goes out to 360 hrs also looks quite nice after 240 hrs, with a very similar threat in the 300 hr range with a Miller B.  Actual placement of the lows on both the extended GFS and Euro Control run are amazingly similar in timing and placement considering that we are looking out in time about 300 hrs.  It is rare, in fact I don't recall seeing anything in the past as similar as this, that far out in time, with both models at virtually the same time.  It is quite interesting.  And for the person that said they don't know why they run the GFS out in time past 10 days, when there is going to be a large disturbance at some time out past 10 days, I have seen the models catch on to it, as far out as 14 days.  October 29, 2011 for instance.  The GFS nailed that one 14 days out, and had it on basically one run out of four each day until it occurred.  What I don't recall is seeing BOTH the Euro control run and the GFS show something as similar as is showing up currently on the models at around 300 hrs out at the same time.  They both show this current warm trend ending next weekend, with big winter type storm threats thereafter.  Very interesting to say the least. 

 

That's because people only remember the few times that the GFS gets lucky 11-14 and they forget all

the misses that you have to wade through.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Rejoice u weenies. New euro run out tonite. Neutral to colder now week 3 and 4 gone is the blowtorch. Evidently last nites talk was sundays version. Fair warning however. Thats a big flip in only 4"days. So buyer beware

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ravensrule

ravensrule

Posted
Posted

Rejoice u weenies. New euro run out tonite. Neutral to colder now week 3 and 4 gone is the blowtorch. Evidently last nites talk was sundays version. Fair warning however. Thats a big flip in only 4"days. So buyer beware

 

They come out twice a week every Monday and Thursday. It is not a new run of the Euro it is the weeklies.

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