Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[Guest Pamela]

Why does everyone complain when the models show a unfavorable pattern 10-15 days out, and then some users just call the entire winter off because of this, I honestly don't understand te logic in that its almost like a 5 year old's mindset.

 

I think it has something to do with the fact that the world is now fiber optically connected to the point where virtually every eager impulse can be satisfied with just a mouse click; when instantaneous gratification is either delayed or denied...the contemporary person becomes either frazzled or confused...not knowing what to do.   

[bluewave]

I think it has something to do with the fact that the world is now fiber optically connected to the point where virtually every eager impulse can be satisfied with just a mouse click; when instantaneous gratification is either delayed or denied...the contemporary person becomes either frazzled or confused...not knowing what to do.   

 

It's lucky we didn't have this technology during some of the snow droughts of the early to mid 70's

followed by the 80's into the early 90's.

[uncle W]

It's lucky we didn't have this technology during some of the snow droughts of the early to mid 70's

followed by the 80's into the early 90's.

especially when we got heavy snow that changed to heavy rain...From February1969 to March 1993 NYC had three winters with with a storm 10" or more...1978, 1979 and 1983...

[PB GFI]

Euro weeklies out , They match there ensembles ... CFS couldnt be more different . If the Euro is right , you shut down JAN .

[SnoSki14]

So what's the cause of this unfavorable pattern, is it due to the warming of our planet, is it a La Nina hangover? I know a weak el nino is much more favorable than this but what is the new norm anymore. In December the AO was quite negative and we blow torched that month. Does that mean eventually that past analogs won't make a difference? 

 

Or even worse. Less snow and more hurricanes/massive storms. I read articles that there are supposed to be less frequent storms but the ones that do occur will be very powerful.

[PB GFI]

So what's the cause of this unfavorable pattern, is it due to the warming of our planet, is it a La Nina hangover? I know a weak el nino is much more favorable than this but what is the new norm anymore. In December the AO was quite negative and we blow torched that month. Does that mean eventually that past analogs won't make a difference? 

 

Or even worse. Less snow and more hurricanes/massive storms. I read articles that there are supposed to be less frequent storms but the ones that do occur will be very powerful.

 

Nothing to do with " global warming " .

 

2  great winters in a row , followed by 2 bad ones  just equals normal .

We live im a mid latitude coastal region , sometimes winters are epic sometimes not .

 

Whatever you are reading , stop  please I beg you .

[Guest Pamela]

Current Snow Cover (as of 1/1/2013) in U.S. is the highest in 10 years...

 

January 1 2013: 67%
January 1 2012: 20%
January 1 2011: 50%
January 1 2010: 61%
January 1 2009: 39%
January 1 2008: 47%
January 1 2007: 43%
January 1 2006: 29%
January 1 2005: 25%
January 1 2004: 29%

[Absolute Humidity]

Nothing to do with " global warming " .

2 great winters in a row , followed by 2 bad ones just equals normal .

We live im a mid latitude coastal region , sometimes winters are epic sometimes not .

Whatever you are reading , stop please I beg you .

We hope. Haven't seen a sub zero temp here years.

[JonClaw]

I wonder where that bowling ball the GFS has been showing will end up.

[CooL]

Long range GFS = Not bad

[SnoSki14]

We hope. Haven't seen a sub zero temp here years.

 

 

Exactly, while the pattern itself may not have anything to do with global warming, the lack of cold air clearly does. The difference in global winter surface temps from the 1970s to now are major. 

[SnoSki14]

Interesting gfs run, the front really digs as it starts to pass by (204-240 hrs) and develops another low off the SE coast. It's been digging that trough very far south for a few runs now, maybe it might lead to something? 

[CooL]

Interesting gfs run, the front really digs as it starts to pass by (204-240 hrs) and develops another low off the SE coast. It's been digging that trough very far south for a few runs now, maybe it might lead to something? 

 

 

You never know. That looks like a big time gradient pattern to me with a very broad trough over the u.s

[NEG NAO]

Hope may be on the horizon

 

0Z GFS at 252

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs850mbTSLPp12252.gif

[mulen]

Generation x LOL ma nature is very willing, models are designed by  men that   at one time or another were humbled by the forces of nature this all good .P.s  and it always will peace.

[IsentropicLift]

We know it's going to warm up next week but after that storm moves through the pattern changes quite dramatically. Get through the next 10 days and then call me.

[CooL]

We know it's going to warm up next week but after that storm moves through the pattern changes quite dramatically. Get through the next 10 days and then call me.

Can I have yo numba

[Guest Pamela]

At 3:00AM...
Albany: 0 F
Boston 9 F
Nantucket 21 F (with a gusty NW wind...so it appears the axis of absoluetly coldest air is a little bit east of us)         

[tmagan]

9Z Temperatures, this is about as close as we will get to winter for quite some time.

[Guest Pamela]

Though the map is appreciated...an asterik should be added to the comment...indicating the writer is asserting an opinion, rather than a demonstrable fact.  

[tmagan]

Though the map is appreciated...an asterik should be added to the comment...indicating the writer is asserting an opinion, rather than a demonstrable fact.  

You will not be seeing temperatures like this next week around here.

[Guest Pamela]

You will not be seeing temperatures like this next week around here.

 

The phrase "quite some time"...at least from my perspective...implies the passage of several months...i.e....next winter. 

[Guest Pamela]

Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13
Through January 2nd

Bridgeport: 16.2"
Newark: 8.5"
Central Park: 5.1"
Islip: 4.8"
JFK: 4.7"
LaGuardia: 2.0"

[PB GFI]

We hope. Haven't seen a sub zero temp here years.

 

Would you rather have sub zero`s temps but be snowless  ? , I would gladly put the last 10 yrs in a bottle , avg temps with  above normal snowfall ? Some of you are too young to remember the 80`s . trust me the last 10 yrs was a lottery ticket .

Dont worry about cold , you can see above avg snowfall with above normal temps in  some winters .

The next 3 weeks probably average above normal temp wise , but it doesnt mean it cant snow , its Jan , you just need 1 wave length to shorten in the right place .

[Sampson]

The phrase "quite some time"...at least from my perspective...implies the passage of several months...i.e....next winter.

Clearly. But you've got to take the good and the bad with TMagan. The content he brings easily outweighs his general pessimism. Deep down, you know he's a super weenie that's desperate for powder.

[NEG NAO]

Seasonal Snowfall 2012-13

Through January 2nd

Bridgeport: 16.2"

Newark: 8.5"

Central Park: 5.1"

Islip: 4.8"

JFK: 4.7"

LaGuardia: 2.0"

 

too bad a good portion of it fell in the first week of November -lol

[MJO812]

The GFS doesn't have the prolonged warmth anymore.

[uncle W]

after the two snowiest back to back winters can this be the least two snowiest winters back to back?...

seasons...snowfall...

2009-2011.....113.3"

1947-1949.....109.8"

............................

1996-1998.......15.5"

1930-1932.......16.9"

2011-2013.......12.5" so far...

[Snowshack]

The GFS doesn't have the prolonged warmth anymore.

 

Still a pretty warm stretch tuesday - saturday

[PB GFI]

yuck