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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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Ger

Ger

Posted
Posted

Have to hand it to him, not even the biggest doomsday warmingista from IPCC thinks a 40F temp rise will occur in the next century. In fact I think the most extreme case is about 5-6F, which would put NYC close to Washington DC's average winter highs.

Well I'm near DC closer to BWI and BWI's record snowfall is bigger thank NYC's. just sayin'

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Well I'm near DC closer to BWI and BWI's record snowfall is bigger thank NYC's. just sayin'

If my best golf drive is 243 yards and I average in the 210s, while your best drive is 262 yards, but you average in the 160s, I'll still take the former over the latter any day.

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Absolute Humidity

Absolute Humidity

Posted
Posted

Feels like the 80s even though I wasn't alive. Maybe we can sneak in a 1983 blizzard this feb

With the exception of 80 -82 and 89, the 80's were pretty good down here. Had just a few KU's, 83 and 87, but overall the frequency of our typical three to nine events was much greater. And by far, the decade was much colder. Jan 84 -12 is still my record low that I at least ever saw. Heck, haven't seen a single digit in years.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
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Happy New Year!

0z GFS keeps us in more of a gradient pattern until a huge cutter restores cold air to the country. No torch this run, but ensembles are still indicating the long-range could be quite warm. It depends on if the PV hangs around Hudson Bay for a while or retreats further northwest, exposing us to more westerly flow and removing the low-level cold. The Northeast could be a battleground between a very frigid airmass over eastern Canada and well-above average temperatures to the Southwest.

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Snowshack

Snowshack

Posted
Posted

11/12 revisited PERIOD

Still too early for this. My area (eastern LI) probably has the lowest snow totals in the area right now - 3.5" at my house, but i still think theres a good shot of beating last year by a good margin. Its only Jan 1, plenty of time to cash in on snow totals. Long duration cold and snowpack - probably not.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Still too early for this. My area (eastern LI) probably has the lowest snow totals in the area right now - 3.5" at my house, but i still think theres a good shot of beating last year by a good margin. Its only Jan 1, plenty of time to cash in on snow totals. Long duration cold and snowpack - probably not.

please explain with some evidence...........I have mine - long range models have shown this season a cold snowy pattern developing several weeks down the road and then when we get closer they reverse to a warmer pattern and the AO - NAO - SOI are all unfavorable for a snowy cold pattern in the east..

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EasternLI

EasternLI

Posted
Posted

Winter fail. Back to back ratters. No gradient pattern will save us

This. Gradient pattern, for me, means rain period. If you want an example of how crappy this winter is turning out look no further than today. A few days ago this was the beginning of an arctic outbreak (lol). Fast forward to now, I'm pushing 40F and my forcast temps for the coming days keep getting bumped up a couple degrees. I'm starting to wonder if I can end up with less snow than last year. I had 6" at the end of last winter, just about 3" as of now.

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easternsnowman

easternsnowman

Posted
Posted

This. Gradient pattern, for me, means rain period. If you want an example of how crappy this winter is turning out look no further than today. A few days ago this was the beginning of an arctic outbreak (lol). Fast forward to now, I'm pushing 40F and my forcast temps for the coming days keep getting bumped up a couple degrees. I'm starting to wonder if I can end up with less snow than last year. I had 6" at the end of last winter, just about 3" as of now.

The sad thing for today's climate with the warmer winters is that 40 is now considered cold even for january!

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Snowshack

Snowshack

Posted
Posted

please explain with some evidence...........I have mine - long range models have shown this season a cold snowy pattern developing several weeks down the road and then when we get closer they reverse to a warmer pattern and the AO - NAO - SOI are all unfavorable for a snowy cold pattern in the east..

Evidence of what? The future weather? Thats my point. You're making definitive statements ("11/12 revisited PERIOD"), based on the same long range models that have fumbled time and again this year. If by evidence you mean a long range model showing something promising -- theyre out there if you want to use that as evidence.

In the end you may wind up being right, the Pacific has been killing us and that may not change in time to salvage winter. But whats the point in writing off the season on Jan 1? Will this be an epic, three month winter? No. But will we have some snowy periods and exceed last year's totals? Yet to be seen.

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