Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[CoastalWx]

I dont thnk you are following me , 1 the trof goes back into the west in 7 days because the PV thats in central canda is pulling back to alaska - ( i wrote that at 6 am )

secondly the strat warm when it shows up in canada in 10 days( i am very well aware of the lag ) will also go into the west that gets you to day 20 -( wrote that at 6 am ) - it matches up with Euro weeklies that stick the trof into the west for 2 weeks .

so the 2 arent related - they follow each other , thats my reasoning for saying our pattern is warm thru jan 20 ( wrote that at 6 am ) .

If you disagree . whats your forecast ?. where do we go ? where does the cold go and when after it shows up in canada ?

Maybe it was your style of writing..how does strat warming force a trough into the west? We have no idea how any strat warming will align itself down the road..only theories. Are you saying the strat warming will force AK/Aleutian ridging and force a -PNA?

[PB GFI]

Maybe it was your style of writing..how does strat warming force a trough into the west? We have no idea how any strat warming will align itself down the road..only theories. Are you saying the strat warming will force AK/Aleutian ridging and force a -PNA?

No was trying to say they are 2 seperate events that were goin to follw each other

mayb ur right - prob wasnt clear - my theory is after front 5 days of normal im writing 20 days of jan off

[CoastalWx]

No was trying to say they are 2 seperate events that were goin to follw each other

mayb ur right - prob wasnt clear - my theory is after front 5 days of normal im writing 20 days of jan off

Regardless, I agree with the west coast trough. I also agree from NYC south...it doesn't look great after this week for awhile. I suppose you can always sneak something in if colder air dips far enough south, but may have to wait until later in the month.

[NEG NAO]

Regardless, I agree with the west coast trough. I also agree from NYC south...it doesn't look great after this week for awhile. I suppose you can always sneak something in if colder air dips far enough south, but may have to wait until later in the month.

here we go again - why don't we just break out the old threads from last January - you remember the ones that kept saying " have to wait until later in the month"

[PB GFI]

Regardless, I agree with the west coast trough. I also agree from NYC south...it doesn't look great after this week for awhile. I suppose you can always sneak something in if colder air dips far enough south, but may have to wait until later in the month.

Hope .

[PB GFI]

here we go again - why don't we just break out the old threads from last January - you remember the ones that kept saying " have to wait until later in the month"

He`s not wrong , it is Jan , you can snow on normals . but it has been a famine pattern for the coast even with the trof stuck in the east for 2 weeks , so

happens sometimes dude .

[CoastalWx]

here we go again - why don't we just break out the old threads from last January - you remember the ones that kept saying " have to wait until later in the month"

Well you forgot the word "may" meaning that it's not a guarantee. I don't think anyone has the confidence to say much more either way.

[NEG NAO]

Well you forgot the word "may" meaning that it's not a guarantee. I don't think anyone has the confidence to say much more either way.

Hey Coastal - I made a post a couple of entries above explaining that the huge intense Vortex up around Hudsons Bay shown on the models is the main cause of all the problems - doesn't this feature concern you ? The AO is going to be positive and the NAO positive - IMO that equals lack of wintry precip around here for a while.............

[rcad1]

Just like last winter. Now we have to wait till Jan 20. Then when we get there it will always be 10 days away.. So that takes us into February then what? Probably same thing over again...

[NorEaster27]

Winter was canceled after the November storm from NYC on south.

[PB GFI]

Just like last winter. Now we have to wait till Jan 20. Then when we get there it will always be 10 days away.. So that takes us into February then what? Probably same thing over again...

Just had 2 great winters , followed by 2 bad winters you know what that gets you ? Normal .

We live at a mid latitude coastal region , not every winter is a good one .. happens guys its just part of living here .

[WintersGrasp]

You know it's a bad winter when you go from hours 3 to 84 on the new NAM and can watch as the country goes from being 50% covered with precipitation...to it completely disappearing within a few days !! Haha it really is sickening...check it out

[Stormlover74]

So we've already given up and decided this is a bad winter?

Just had 2 great winters , followed by 2 bad winters you know what that gets you ? Normal .

We live at a mid latitude coastal region , not every winter is a good one .. happens guys its just part of living here .

[PB GFI]

So we've already given up and decided this is a bad winter?

Dec was bad , Jan wil prob be bad - if Feb is great , then feb will be great in a bad winter .IMO

[PB GFI]

So we've already given up and decided this is a bad winter?

Prob should have said " if " , but I dont like what i see fo Jan is all

[CoastalWx]

Hey Coastal - I made a post a couple of entries above explaining that the huge intense Vortex up around Hudsons Bay shown on the models is the main cause of all the problems - doesn't this feature concern you ? The AO is going to be positive and the NAO positive - IMO that equals lack of wintry precip around here for a while.............

What would concern me, is the vortex aligning such that we have a -PNA and a trough in the Davis Straits. This basically says hello SE ridge which is quite possible. You'll need ridging in the Davis Straits to counteract that.

[SRRTA22]

We had a superstorm hurricane and a snowstorm within 2 weeks. Before that we had back to back amazing winters. We were due for a bad winter or two.

[MJO812]

The pattern is so boring

[BxEngine]

How some of you manage to make it through the day without an emotional breakdown is nothing short of a miracle.

[MJO812]

Feb will rock. Some of the analogs for this winter showed a backloaded winter.

[NEG NAO]

Feb will rock. Some of the analogs for this winter showed a backloaded winter.

yea right - see how far your analogs get you

[SnoSki14]

It sucks we missed out on all potential and it sucks even more that the pattern will be cold but dry, then probably mild and wet, but given we have another 3 months of snow potential, there's always hope for something. It's kind of like hurricane season where it only takes one snowstorm to make a winter.

[MJO812]

yea right - see how far your analogs get you

It is funny how you know what February will be like.

[Snowshack]

It sucks we missed out on all potential and it sucks even more that the pattern will be cold but dry, then probably mild and wet, but given we have another 3 months of snow potential, there's always hope for something. It's kind of like hurricane season where it only takes one snowstorm to make a winter.

You're right, but to me the best indicator of a good winter is number of days of snowcover. If we picked up 20" of snow in March to add to the current snowfall totals, the winter would look pretty decent in the record books. But on the CP, late season storms are working with higher avg. high temps, and hgher sun angle, and really cant generate the long lasting snowcover that late December/January storms can. So i hope we can get some snow on the ground before late Feb.

On the other hand, just got back from a few days in the Adirondacks, and winter has definately delivered up there over the past 10 days..

[rcad1]

What happened to the cold air that we were forecasted to have this week? My forecast this week is now for highs In the mid 30's not that far off of what are avg is..

[WintersGrasp]

I think it is obvious that the models have overestimated the cold 140+ hours out, but how often does that not happen? I think the problem here is that the short term forecasts such as the ones for the next 48-72 hours that we see on NWS, TWC etc....are more of a blend of models that have updated to reflect the overestimated cold, etc they once showed and human input. The forecasts much further out, that for example accuweather or wunderground show that have said "high 25 low 12 with snow", "high 21 low 11", etc....are automatically generated by the models 1-2 weeks, sometimes more in advance.....that when they come into view and are updated by human input and the model's ability to throw more onto the table, such as when a storm actually comes ashore, or an area of low pressure has passed, or the trough starts to dive down, etc....Only then can they begin to possibly be the slightest bit accurate.....and will suddenly say more like "high 41 low 37 with rain", etc. Am I saying that the forecast for 3 weeks from now on accuweather showing snow and temps in the mid 20s cannot happen? No, it sure can....but I think the point is that it can happen at any time in the period of a week to 4 weeks, and it is IMPOSSIBLE to pinpoint the date, and it also takes into account common model errors (such as overdoing cold air)

[bluewave]

What happened to the cold air that we were forecasted to have this week? My forecast this week is now for highs In the mid 30's not that far off of what are avg is..

The NAEFS had a better handle on the pattern this week from the 24th than some of the colder

OP runs of the Euro and GFS later last week. I guess the moral of the story is that you just

can't trust colder model solutions while we are in such a warm pattern until we actually

see the cold verify first.

The Euro backs off.

[nzucker]

The NAEFS had a better handle on the pattern this week from the 24th than some of the colder

OP runs of the Euro and GFS later last week. I guess the moral of the story is that you just

can't trust colder model solutions while we are in such a warm pattern until we actually

see the cold verify first.

The Euro backs off.

The ridging out west has trended quite a bit weaker which is causing the temperatures to be closer to average. Here in Westchester, we went from temperatures forecasted around 25/10 to temperatures now around 32/20 for the week, which is just slightly below average. Once again, all of the arctic air looks to stay on the Asian side with a very low height field in central Eurasia developing while North America plays host to more warmth. It's actually possible that January could average above normal now since we won't build up that much of a negative departure this week, and then the AK vortex and +NAO look to return.

I wouldn't say we've been in a warm pattern all fall though....November was like -4F around here with 8.5" of snow. We had several -10 to -15 departures in November. The last part of December has been cold and snowy here in the northern suburbs, if not down there.

[NEG NAO]

I think it is obvious that the models have overestimated the cold 140+ hours out, but how often does that not happen? I think the problem here is that the short term forecasts such as the ones for the next 48-72 hours that we see on NWS, TWC etc....are more of a blend of models that have updated to reflect the overestimated cold, etc they once showed and human input. The forecasts much further out, that for example accuweather or wunderground show that have said "high 25 low 12 with snow", "high 21 low 11", etc....are automatically generated by the models 1-2 weeks, sometimes more in advance.....that when they come into view and are updated by human input and the model's ability to throw more onto the table, such as when a storm actually comes ashore, or an area of low pressure has passed, or the trough starts to dive down, etc....Only then can they begin to possibly be the slightest bit accurate.....and will suddenly say more like "high 41 low 37 with rain", etc. Am I saying that the forecast for 3 weeks from now on accuweather showing snow and temps in the mid 20s cannot happen? No, it sure can....but I think the point is that it can happen at any time in the period of a week to 4 weeks, and it is IMPOSSIBLE to pinpoint the date, and it also takes into account common model errors (such as overdoing cold air)

overestimating the cold air is an understatement - the GFS at one point was advertising single digits for NYC the first week of January - going to be a 20 degree bust - models are inaccurate now past 5 days

[bluewave]

The ridging out west has trended quite a bit weaker which is causing the temperatures to be closer to average. Here in Westchester, we went from temperatures forecasted around 25/10 to temperatures now around 32/20 for the week, which is just slightly below average. Once again, all of the arctic air looks to stay on the Asian side with a very low height field in central Eurasia developing while North America plays host to more warmth. It's actually possible that January could average above normal now since we won't build up that much of a negative departure this week, and then the AK vortex and +NAO look to return.

I wouldn't say we've been in a warm pattern all fall though....November was like -4F around here with 8.5" of snow. We had several -10 to -15 departures in November. The last part of December has been cold and snowy here in the northern suburbs, if not down there.

We have been in a warm pattern the last 3 years with only a few below normal months out of the last 36.

The November cold was largely a result of Sandy pulling the cold in from the west long enough for

a cold start to the month and a record early November snowstorm. Post November 8th was just stale

cold with unimpressive negative daily temperature departures.