Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[PB GFI]

Hey PB I haven't forgotten about this - looks like Neg NAO 1 -- PB GFI 0.

For the record made the dec 20 call back on dec 3 talking to ant

Secondly from dec 20 to jan 10 gona finish 5 below. And those 3 systems I talked about. Xmas eve light snow area wide ...1 big storm went west 1 big storm went northeast. Not gona hit everyone's backyard. But the pattern call was reall right. The rest. Eeeeek. Sh$t happens. If you lived in the lower Hudson valley you would be a happy man right now .....

[nzucker]

For the record made the dec 20 call back on dec 3 talking to ant

Secondly from dec 20 to jan 10 gona finish 5 below. And those 3 systems I talked about. Xmas eve light snow area wide ...1 big storm went west 1 big storm went northeast. Not gona hit everyone's backyard. But the pattern call was reall right. The rest. Eeeeek. Sh$t happens. If you lived in the lower Hudson valley you would be a happy man right now .....

I am reasonably happy...had about 7" on the week with 3" snow depth right now.

[famartin]

Hey PB I haven't forgotten about this - looks like Neg NAO 1 -- PB GFI 0.

epic fail

[nzucker]

I'll bet a lot of places in the Deep South have already been in the teens, especially in Arkansas where they've had snow cover repeatedly. It's amazing how NYC's low temperatures have become warmer than Atlanta's in recent years.

[famartin]

For the record made the dec 20 call back on dec 3 talking to ant

Secondly from dec 20 to jan 10 gona finish 5 below.

December 20-29 was +1.9. (36.9 actual - 35.0 normal).

Normal for December 30-January 10 is 33.1. Just taking the current MEX guidance through Jan 6, the average would be 31.9.

I think its gonna be tough to get to -5.

[PB GFI]

epic fail

No the 100 lot of nat gas jan 4 calls im long is an epic loss , this is what I do in my underwear

[Edge Weather]

For the record made the dec 20 call back on dec 3 talking to ant

Secondly from dec 20 to jan 10 gona finish 5 below. And those 3 systems I talked about. Xmas eve light snow area wide ...1 big storm went west 1 big storm went northeast. Not gona hit everyone's backyard. But the pattern call was reall right. The rest. Eeeeek. Sh$t happens. If you lived in the lower Hudson valley you would be a happy man right now .....

You pretty much nailed it on my area. 6 inches on the ground, got snow from all three storms, and snow drifting today to 2 feet in some locations. Like a winter wonderland only 50miles from your location. Your prediction was pretty darn good, and that is an understatement.

[Nikolai]

I'll bet a lot of places in the Deep South have already been in the teens, especially in Arkansas where they've had snow cover repeatedly. It's amazing how NYC's low temperatures have become warmer than Atlanta's in recent years.

Global warming + urban heat island... it'll take another century or so, but NYC and Miami (climate circa 2012) won't be that different before long.

[Juliancolton]

Global warming + urban heat island... it'll take another century or so, but NYC and Miami (climate circa 2012) won't be that different before long.

I heard Miami never has issues with precip type.

[nzucker]

Global warming + urban heat island... it'll take another century or so, but NYC and Miami (climate circa 2012) won't be that different before long.

Nikolai, you are beyond an idiot if you really think this. NYC's average highs are about 40F lower in winter than Miami. Do you think the climate is going to warm 40F in a century? If so, you should probably ban yourself permanently from this board. Oh wait, you should have done that already for all the arrogant idiocy you have spewed.

My point was about urban heat island and the direction of the cold shots this winter.

[Isotherm]

Nikolai, you are beyond an idiot if you really think this. NYC's average highs are about 40F lower in winter than Miami. Do you think the climate is going to warm 40F in a century? If so, you should probably ban yourself permanently from this board. Oh wait, you should have done that already for all the arrogant idiocy you have spewed.

My point was about urban heat island and the direction of the cold shots this winter.

Have to hand it to him, not even the biggest doomsday warmingista from IPCC thinks a 40F temp rise will occur in the next century. In fact I think the most extreme case is about 5-6F, which would put NYC close to Washington DC's average winter highs.

[RowanBrandon]

I've seen dumb things posted in this board, but that one might take the cake. Bravo, Nikolai.

[Rib]

He should be up for WOTY. BTW, vote in the finals. Just 30 minutes left.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38567-the-10th-annual2012-weenie-of-the-year-finals/

[ravensrule]

Nikolai, you are beyond an idiot if you really think this. NYC's average highs are about 40F lower in winter than Miami. Do you think the climate is going to warm 40F in a century? If so, you should probably ban yourself permanently from this board. Oh wait, you should have done that already for all the arrogant idiocy you have spewed.

My point was about urban heat island and the direction of the cold shots this winter.

Nikolai is a few beers short of a six pack, give a mentally challenged pass.

[earthlight]

Global warming + urban heat island... it'll take another century or so, but NYC and Miami (climate circa 2012) won't be that different before long.

[mulen]

We think we effect the earth she will shake us off like a bad dream all that'll be left is a little plastic .We can't take care of ourselves never mind the earth.

[PB GFI]

Whats more depressing besides reading thru utter stupidity on this blog is if you toggle thru the 850s thru 240 on the 0z run of the Euro , you can it really means business as it retrogrades the PV that took a month to get into central Canada back towards Alaska ....

My fear is that it's a 2 to 3 week process to dislodge that.

So once past the next 7 days of cold and dry , poof the thaw will be here . And doesn't change back on a dime .

So after a zero dec and the set up for an ugly jan . When you stick a PV in Alaska you can kiss the cold goodby I am looking forward to the blogs that start to show up stating "feb is our month " .

[Stormlover74]

Even the cold this week is looking less impressive. Low 30s for highs and 20 for a low is barely -5 this time of year. EWR's normal low is 26 and they've yet to reach that this winter. With that said we don't need an arctic airmass in place to get a couple snow events in January as long as we're not torching.

[MJO812]

People are giving up because of this thaw coming up.

[Mr Torchey]

People are giving up because of this thaw coming up.

Reading your posts is like an instant replay of last winter.

[MJO812]

Reading your posts is like an instant replay of last winter.

Alright Joe, lets hear your wonderful thoughts about the rest of the winter. Why should we cancel winter? A thaw is coming but that doesn't mean winter is over.

[CoastalWx]

It's natural for the human psyche to try and find the easy way out of things, and GW has been the answer. The US weather tells the story for the entire globe, right?

[PB GFI]

People are giving up because of this thaw coming up.

These 2 weeks was the anomaly in between the 3 weeks of warmth before the 2 weeks of warmth in front of us starting Monday . ( and i am hoping its only 2 weeks ) . That gets you to week 3 Jan

That STRT warming that shows up in the US in10 days goes into the west first , so that doesnt help us .

[MJO812]

These 2 weeks was the anomaly in between the 3 weeks of warmth before the 2 weeks of warmth in front of us starting Monday . ( and i am hoping its only 2 weeks ) . That gets you to week 3 Jan

That STRT warming that shows up in the US in10 days goes into the west first , so that doesnt help us .

Well if the rest of the winter sucks, I just hope I get to 10 inches of snow lol

[CoastalWx]

These 2 weeks was the anomaly in between the 3 weeks of warmth before the 2 weeks of warmth in front of us starting Monday . ( and i am hoping its only 2 weeks ) . That gets you to week 3 Jan

That STRT warming that shows up in the US in10 days goes into the west first , so that doesnt help us .

What?

[bluewave]

Even the cold this week is looking less impressive. Low 30s for highs and 20 for a low is barely -5 this time of year. EWR's normal low is 26 and they've yet to reach that this winter. With that said we don't need an arctic airmass in place to get a couple snow events in January as long as we're not torching.

That's right. The models are already backing off of the magnitude of the cold that was forecast

for this week here while trending warmer for next week. Where have we seen this show before?

[NEG NAO]

as I expected -12/13 going into January 2013 will continue the 11/12ish feel to it as the major players on the field are in the wrong places. That huge Vortex up north in the vicinity of Hudsons Bay is the main reason. The AO is rising and will remain in postive territory for at least the first couple of weeks in January. The position of this vortex is also helping to keep the NAO positive. This is all bad for winter storm development along the east coast. So January will start below normal with temps but all the real cold air remains locked up around that huge vortex and the flow will become a milder one so by mid month the averages will be close to normal or slightly above for the month..And a lack of snowfall here in the metro..........

[PB GFI]

What?

The Strat warming that u are seeing at 10 mb over the poles is a a tool thats used to forecast colder than normal temps in the lower 48 . im sure u know that .

The warming taking place now , 1 its a 10 day lag . 2 , when canada finally turns cold that cold will get released into the west first and stay take 10 days to spread east , not to mention modify

Should have read strt warming event . means cold pool goes into west

thats were trof is goin in 10 days - and may stay there for 10 days

[CoastalWx]

The Strat warming that u are seeing at 10 mb over the poles is a a tool thats used to forecast colder than normal temps in the lower 48 . im sure u know that .

The warming taking place now , 1 its a 10 day lag . 2 , when canada finally turns cold that cold will get released into the west first and stay take 10 days to spread east , not to mention modify

Should have read strt warming event . means cold pool goes into west

thats were trof is goin in 10 days - and may stay there for 10 days

I know what it is, I don't agree with your logic at all. It takes a very long time from 10mb. You have it all wrong. The cold in the west is not related to it.

[PB GFI]

I dont thnk you are following me , 1 the trof goes back into the west in 7 days because the PV thats in central canda is pulling back to alaska - ( i wrote that at 6 am )

secondly the strat warm when it shows up in canada in 10 days( i am very well aware of the lag ) will also go into the west that gets you to day 20 -( wrote that at 6 am ) - it matches up with Euro weeklies that stick the trof into the west for 2 weeks .

so the 2 arent related - they follow each other , thats my reasoning for saying our pattern is warm thru jan 20 ( wrote that at 6 am ) .

If you disagree . whats your forecast ?. where do we go ? where does the cold go and when after it shows up in canada ?

I know what it is, I don't agree with your logic at all. It takes a very long time from 10mb. You have it all wrong. The cold in the west is not related to it.