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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

CFSv2 has been consistent with a cold January and February.

They also showed up to 2 ft of snow cover by New Years from back in mid Dec . All I am saying is that we face a week to 10 days of cold but dry followed by 10 days of the trough into the West .

That gets you to Jan 20 , Sound familiar ? we had the exact same convo back in early Dec .

Now I am not saying its goin to happen but so far from DEC 1 CPK hasnt recorded an event with an inch of snow and that may b on the table until the 3 rd week in JAN .

Now it may happen but you have to admitt that is being modeled that way as of now .

The Euro and GFS look really cold , but dry thr day 10

Euro weeklies take the trof into the west for 10 days . on the otherside the Strat warm , I see it , but sometimes that gets dumped into the mid section of the country first and takes time to spread out . So i am feeling cautious ant .

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I wrote up a quick post mortem on this storm

http://www.nymetrowe...n-recent-storm/

Great piece , The 1 st thing i saw last Sun AM was the trof into the west coast my first thought was that it would wide right .

Secondaries are always a timing issue , true it closed off too late for us and i was REALLY REALLY wrong not buying the NAM s 925 intrepatation .I just really thought it was too aggressive .

I saw the deepening and said ahhh it pushing the heat out of ahead of it . lucky we werent in the 20s would have been an ice storm .

Well in the end , was a good system for SNE .

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Hello old friend! I hope you are well, old man winter has been kind to us across the pond even though its been an absolute torch this month. Beautiful scene this morning, Happy New Year .........health and happiness.

Great to hear from you...it hasn't been quite so kind to us just across the Sound...but we did manage to eek out just under 2 inches last night...after 7 hours of snowfall...as I type, most of it is still here...even still sticking to the branches. Might not have had a white Christmas...but should eek out a white New Year's.

Not ready to mail it in on the winter...as Lou Manheim said in Wall Street...."good things sometimes take time".

The upcoming cold spell is hardly without value...it should knock several degrees off the ocean water temps...

Oh, and since you shared a photo...see the link for the web cam from Miller Place...a town about a mile or two to my east:

http://www.avogadro-...e_Pro_Plus.html

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Great piece , The 1 st thing i saw last Sun AM was the trof into the west coast my first thought was that it would wide right .

Secondaries are always a timing issue , true it closed off too late for us and i was REALLY REALLY wrong not buying the NAM s 925 intrepatation .I just really thought it was too aggressive .

I saw the deepening and said ahhh it pushing the heat out of ahead of it . lucky we werent in the 20s would have been an ice storm .

Well in the end , was a good system for SNE .

I mentioned this at work yesterday, damn good thing it was not colder. Its possible though if we had a stronger cold air mass in place the secondary low would have been pushed out to sea.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Great piece , The 1 st thing i saw last Sun AM was the trof into the west coast my first thought was that it would wide right .

Secondaries are always a timing issue , true it closed off too late for us and i was REALLY REALLY wrong not buying the NAM s 925 intrepatation .I just really thought it was too aggressive .

I saw the deepening and said ahhh it pushing the heat out of ahead of it . lucky we werent in the 20s would have been an ice storm .

Well in the end , was a good system for SNE .

Yeah the last thing we need is an ice storm with more tree damage. Don't know about your area of the town, but most neighborhoods around here still have piles of debris lining the streets. Town luckily picked up ours fairly quick. There was a 20'+ pile of tree debris in our street.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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Posted

I mentioned this at work yesterday, damn good thing it was not colder. Its possible though if we had a stronger cold air mass in place the secondary low would have been pushed out to sea.

I thnk it was back in 08 ? The famous NAM BL 10 degree bust from 12 hrs out , temps got stuck in the mid 20`s and we had about 6 inches of sleet on the North Shore . I thnk a lot of pp did .

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Yeah the last thing we need is an ice storm with more tree damage. Don't know about your area of the town, but most neighborhoods around here still have piles of debris lining the streets. Town luckily picked up ours fairly quick. There was a 20'+ pile of tree debris in our street.

The CN property is up on Wyndcrest , Zero damage by us . Very lucky and any trees that came down around pp had em hauled off quick

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Taking a look at years with a snowy Nov and bad Dec..

1882-83 0 0 0 0 14.0 T 9.4 10.1 10.0 0.5 0 0 44.0

In this year, we had a 12"+ Nov followed by nothing in Dec, ended up a great winter.

Good analog for my area so far, 12" Nov, and 0.2" Dec.

1898-99 0 0 0 0 19.0 1.5 5.3 25.3 4.8 0 0 0 55.9

Another year with a great Nov and bad Dec, ended up excellent..

1906-07 0 0 0 0 1.0 0.3 11.0 21.8 13.3 5.8 0 0 53.2

Bad through December, ended up with over 50".

1938-39 0 0 0 0 12.8 1.7 10.3 5.5 7.0 T 0 0 37.3

Less than 2" in Dec after a good Nov, finished above normal.

1978-79 0 0 0 0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 0 0 29.4

Didn't get going until Jan really, finished with normal snowfall in 78-79.

Given the snowstorm in Nov, the number of analogs are already low, but interestingly enough, many of those snowy Nov years featured bad Dec patterns, and then better Jan-Mar. So all hope is not lost with a poor Dec.

Would be more interested to see what the rest of the winter holds after an extremely warm December, since that's probably a better judge of the pattern. I did the stats for Philly last night and they weren't promising. Some years reached normal. Most were below,

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Would be more interested to see what the rest of the winter holds after an extremely warm December, since that's probably a better judge of the pattern. I did the stats for Philly last night and they weren't promising. Some years reached normal. Most were below,

Yeah if you're looking at temps and not snowfall, most were below for NYC as well, following very warm Decs.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

After this period of cold and maybe a light snow threat, the pattern looks to turn increasingly zonal as we head into mid January with a +NAO and declining PNA. I think at that point, we have to wait until the stratospheric warming takes effect in order to see a more favorable pattern emerge. I do think late January and early February may hold something special considering the magnitude of the stratospheric warming.

Day 10 ECM doesn't look promising:

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Dont think people on the coastal plain around NYC understand that our time in this 3 week pattern may have ended in squeeze play normal temps with 1 storm bombing to your west and one to your Northeast . Now its 7- 8 days of cold and dry followed by a real zonal warm up .

Once the trof cuts off on the west coast its probably a 2 week process , that gets you in to week 3 of Jan before the reshufffling starts .

Easy with the STRT warming 1 . its a 10 day lag from when it begins and another 10 days before the cold shows up in Canada , ( hopefully) it even settles on our side of

the hemisphere ( if u one can remember way way back to ..... oh i dont know last year ) thats not a guarentee . If THAT all that works out the cold has an equal chnce of charging into the mid section of the counrty first as it does thru the lakes .and then that air modifies and comes east .

If we dont catch lightning in a bottle before this trof pulls out , then we have issues

We just finished DEC with CPK not recording an inch of snow for the month . and now Jan smells very similar for the first 2 or 3 weeks .

If you wana look towards FEB , me too cause pitchers and catchers report to camp and spring isnt far behind .

Happy New Year - i hope .

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nzucker

nzucker

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Posted

Dont think people on the coastal plain around NYC understand that our time in this 3 week pattern may have ended in squeeze play normal temps with 1 storm bombing to your west and one to your Northeast . Now its 7- 8 days of cold and dry followed by a real zonal warm up .

Once the trof cuts off on the west coast its probably a 2 week process , that gets you in to week 3 of Jan before the reshufffling starts .

Easy with the STRT warming 1 . its a 10 day lag from when it begins and another 10 days before the cold shows up in Canada , ( hopefully) it even settles on our side of

the hemisphere ( if u one can remember way way back to ..... oh i dont know last year ) thats not a guarentee . If THAT all that works out the cold has an equal chnce of charging into the mid section of the counrty first as it does thru the lakes .and then that air modifies and comes east .

If we dont catch lightning in a bottle before this trof pulls out , then we have issues

We just finished DEC with CPK not recording an inch of snow for the month . and now Jan smells very similar for the first 2 or 3 weeks .

If you wana look towards FEB , me too cause pitchers and catchers report to camp and spring isnt far behind .

Happy New Year - i hope .

A lot of times snow events catch us and surprise us in a cold pattern. We have a couple minor threats on the table, especially as the vortex lifts north around Day 8, so I wouldn't be surprised if we did have some snow in the first two weeks of January. We don't need a lot of QPF/precip to squeeze out a decent event with these temperatures. In any case, the fact that we're seeing a stratospheric warming at this time is perfect because it would produce a favorable pattern right at the end of January and beginning of February, when we've historically seen our biggest snowfalls. Thinking of Feb 2010, Jan 2005, Feb 2003, and countless others.

It's absolutely gorgeous here right now. Just took the dog for a walk...3" of snow cover in the woods, fresh powder covering up the icy crust from the 12/27 mix event, roaring NW winds, and temperatures dropping into the upper 20s. Perfect winter scenery with the sun setting over the Hudson River in the distance. Should be a nice wintry week.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Dude , there are 3 systems on the playing field now between now and new years for snow or something wintry

It's not just the GFS the euro ensembles show it 20 below normal for the entire week after new years. Im curious what models or analysis r u using to come up with ur forecast

You said the same thing when most of us pointed to dec 20 as a pattern change

How about ths for a forecast

You are goin to see one of the best 2 to 3 week turnarounds that we've seen around here in a long time

Most weeklies point to it. And it's almost being modeled everywhere

So if you like snow and winter this is it.

Hey PB I haven't forgotten about this - looks like Neg NAO 1 -- PB GFI 0.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

we haven't seen temperatures in the teens yet in NYC...Last year we saw the first one on Jan. 3rd...here is the list of the latest dates for the first temperature 19 or lower...

1932...Feb. 16th...

2002...Feb. 5th...

1975...Jan. 15th...

1906...Jan. 9th...

1982...Jan. 9th...

1949...Jan. 8th...

1985...Jan. 8th...

1991...Jan. 8th...

1909...Jan. 7th...

2004...Jan. 7th...

.............................................................................

we could see the first teen temp the first week in January but I wouldn't bet on it...

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

we could see the first teen temp the first week in January but I wouldn't bet on it...

They might be three of the worst UHI examples on the planet...but it will be hard for CPK, LGA, or JFK to avoid the upper teens for Thursday, Friday, or Saturday mornings...anyway, what is 19 F...six whole degrees below the normal low?

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