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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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ag3

ag3

Posted
Posted

NWS has a cold pattern coming for here towards the middle and end of the week.

Tuesday: 37/19

Wednesday: 28/15

Thursday: 25/15

Friday: 25/13

Looks as if the first week of January should average around -10F departure here.

Last nights euro had NYC with a low of 7-8 degrees and highs of 18-23 degrees for both Thursday and Friday.

Tonight's run is coming out now. If it has those temps again, many in the north and west might be flirting with below 0 temps.

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

Posted
Posted

After nearly 2 months, I can't fathom to not see any storm deliver snowfall rates and amounts that even come close to the 11/7 storm. That 11/7 storm so easily achieved a blinding and drifting snow in a seemingly worse synoptic and climatalogical pattern than we are in now.

As December comes to a close, I have not received any measurable snow ever since the 11/7 storm granted me 4 inches of paste in Southern Brooklyn. My 2012-2013 annual snowfall is so far parallelling the same snail's pace of snowfall-gathering of 2011-2012. Moreover, to add insult to injury, both of the storms next week are likely to get suppresed and the GFS has backed off on the intensity of the cold blast next week. Also, Don S. stated that we will likely have a 2-week warm period in the middle of January.

I have to regret that the predictions from Storm at Sea, NJ Winter, ace, uncle W and NEG NAO have been dead-on so far with their bearish outlooks on these NYC "storm threats."

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Absolute Humidity

Absolute Humidity

Posted
Posted

Some winters deliver and some don't. Some deliver the goods unevenly and I believe this is one of those winters. I too only saw three snow flakes in between the rain but hey, that's how weather goes. Hang in there. You'll get yours. We still have a lot of winter to go and like the sports analogy says, if it doesn't happen, there's always next year.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

I think I jinxed this winter by getting my kids sleds for Christmas. I also got them and my nieces and nephews these things where you can color on the snow. I'll take the blame if this winter is total crap! :-)

Seems like we are just south of the real gradient. Like in the junk zone.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

After nearly 2 months, I can't fathom to not see any storm deliver snowfall rates and amounts that even come close to the 11/7 storm. That 11/7 storm so easily achieved a blinding and drifting snow in a seemingly worse synoptic and climatalogical pattern than we are in now.

As December comes to a close, I have not received any measurable snow ever since the 11/7 storm granted me 4 inches of paste in Southern Brooklyn. My 2012-2013 annual snowfall is so far parallelling the same snail's pace of snowfall-gathering of 2011-2012. Moreover, to add insult to injury, both of the storms next week are likely to get suppresed and the GFS has backed off on the intensity of the cold blast next week. Also, Don S. stated that we will likely have a 2-week warm period in the middle of January.

I have to regret that the predictions from Storm at Sea, NJ Winter, ace, uncle W and NEG NAO have been dead-on so far with their bearish outlooks on these NYC "storm threats."

For the record I am always hoping for as much snow as possible but this winter which officially began in early december has been high on expectations so far and low on results - for instance JB is expecting single digit lows according to the models he has been advertising on his twitter site this coming friday morning in NYC - think that will end up verifying ? Also he forecasted 4 - 8 inches of snow for the 12/25 and 12/27 event combined in eastern NJ we ended up with 0.4 at Newark both combined - not sure what he was predicting yesterday - but i am sure with our 1.5 at newark was much lower then his forecasts -wasn't just him forecasting higher amounts many others did too.........

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

After nearly 2 months, I can't fathom to not see any storm deliver snowfall rates and amounts that even come close to the 11/7 storm. That 11/7 storm so easily achieved a blinding and drifting snow in a seemingly worse synoptic and climatalogical pattern than we are in now.

As December comes to a close, I have not received any measurable snow ever since the 11/7 storm granted me 4 inches of paste in Southern Brooklyn. My 2012-2013 annual snowfall is so far parallelling the same snail's pace of snowfall-gathering of 2011-2012. Moreover, to add insult to injury, both of the storms next week are likely to get suppresed and the GFS has backed off on the intensity of the cold blast next week. Also, Don S. stated that we will likely have a 2-week warm period in the middle of January.

I have to regret that the predictions from Storm at Sea, NJ Winter, ace, uncle W and NEG NAO have been dead-on so far with their bearish outlooks on these NYC "storm threats."

analogs suggest we get at least one cold month with above average snowfall...But my confidence is lower...19-20 warm December winters had less than 30" of snowfall...Most of them less than average...We have 5.1" officially so far...We could end up over 20" if we get very cold?...The models look good but 'it's only make believe' for now...Hey that's a song lol...

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

After nearly 2 months, I can't fathom to not see any storm deliver snowfall rates and amounts that even come close to the 11/7 storm. That 11/7 storm so easily achieved a blinding and drifting snow in a seemingly worse synoptic and climatalogical pattern than we are in now.

As December comes to a close, I have not received any measurable snow ever since the 11/7 storm granted me 4 inches of paste in Southern Brooklyn. My 2012-2013 annual snowfall is so far parallelling the same snail's pace of snowfall-gathering of 2011-2012. Moreover, to add insult to injury, both of the storms next week are likely to get suppresed and the GFS has backed off on the intensity of the cold blast next week. Also, Don S. stated that we will likely have a 2-week warm period in the middle of January.

I have to regret that the predictions from Storm at Sea, NJ Winter, ace, uncle W and NEG NAO have been dead-on so far with their bearish outlooks on these NYC "storm threats."

The bottom line is this was always goin to be a 3 week , Dec 20 - Jan 10th pattern change , then as the Euro says the trof goes back into the west for 2 weeks . There were 2 big storms , problem was we got squeezed 1 big one went off to our west - and 1 big one off to our east . bad things happen sometimes . The 3 week cold didnt yield the coast what we wanted .

Props to the NAM for locking on to its 925 intrepatation and progging closing the low too late for the coast yesterday . I didnt buy it , so it won and i lost . Like i said sometimes bad things happen .

Theres a chance you just see it really cold but dry for the next 5 days , that happens in pos PNA patterns , U get stuff go off too far south . This is not the 1 st time things in weather didnt go your way .Random probabilty sometimes throws you a strike or sometimes just hits you in the temple .

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Central Park, JFK, and Newark are all slightly above normal for snowfall season to date....Bridgeport is way above normal....the snow may not have fallen when you wanted to...i.e. much of it in early November...but it all counts in the record books just the same. The bottom line is you can't fight climatology...the NYC area does not have an average annual snowfall in the neighborhood of only 30 inches (a bit less in the past 40 years) for a nearly 150 year climate record by accident.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Central Park, JFK, and Newark are all slightly above normal for snowfall season to date....Bridgeport is way above normal....the snow may not have fallen when you wanted to...i.e. much of it in early November...but it all counts in the record books just the same. The bottom line is you can't fight climatology...the NYC area does not have an average annual snowfall in the neighborhood of only 30 inches (a bit less in the past 40 years) for a nearly 150 year climate record by accident.

Hello old friend! I hope you are well, old man winter has been kind to us across the pond even though its been an absolute torch this month. Beautiful scene this morning, Happy New Year .........health and happiness.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I'm optimistic about the end of January and February :)

We said that on DEC 15 about the end of dec into jan . Im sure I know where you are getting that , bro they all keep moving the goal post . You may get 10 days of cold dry weather , followed by 2 weeks of Pacific air in the pattern .

And then wait for FEB now ? ahhhh not that excited ant .

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Taking a look at years with a snowy Nov and bad Dec..

1882-83 0 0 0 0 14.0 T 9.4 10.1 10.0 0.5 0 0 44.0

In this year, we had a 12"+ Nov followed by nothing in Dec, ended up a great winter.

Good analog for my area so far, 12" Nov, and 0.2" Dec.

1898-99 0 0 0 0 19.0 1.5 5.3 25.3 4.8 0 0 0 55.9

Another year with a great Nov and bad Dec, ended up excellent..

1906-07 0 0 0 0 1.0 0.3 11.0 21.8 13.3 5.8 0 0 53.2

Bad through December, ended up with over 50".

1938-39 0 0 0 0 12.8 1.7 10.3 5.5 7.0 T 0 0 37.3

Less than 2" in Dec after a good Nov, finished above normal.

1978-79 0 0 0 0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 0 0 29.4

Didn't get going until Jan really, finished with normal snowfall in 78-79.

Given the snowstorm in Nov, the number of analogs are already low, but interestingly enough, many of those snowy Nov years featured bad Dec patterns, and then better Jan-Mar. So all hope is not lost with a poor Dec.

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