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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

This was never going to be a huge event so 2-4" is very reasonable.

I also don't agree that if the NAO isn't negative that means no big storm especially with a favorable pacific and +PNA. Oh and usually we see a big storm when the NAO flips from negative to positive which is what happened over the past few days.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Definitely a bit disappointing tracking this week though I've picked up a couple of accumulating snows.

1st event: 1" of beautiful snow Christmas eve but changed to freezing drizzle

2nd event: 2.5" of heavy snow but then changed to sleet and rain

3rd event: appears to be trending eastward into another minor storm

My seasonal totals are going up, and I'm nursing a small snowpack, but we aren't reaching our potential.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

I agree. 12z Euro should be interesting.

yea it was real interesting - goes to show you don't hang your hat on 1 run of a model -even if it is the EURO you weren't the only one..........12/13 still has the feel of 11./12 - coating to 3 inches looks really reasonable now for the weekend storm and wouldn't be surprised at all if it trends even weaker..........

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

yea it was real interesting - goes to show you don't hang your hat on 1 run of a model -even if it is the EURO you weren't the only one..........12/13 still has the feel of 11./12 - coating to 3 inches looks really reasonable now for the weekend storm and wouldn't be surprised at all if it trends even weaker..........

The fact that there's even snow threats automatically makes this completely different from last winter. There was pretty much zero chance of us getting anything last winter and we got really lucky with that mid January system because it was a thread the needle event.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

The fact that there's even snow threats automatically makes this completely different from last winter. There was pretty much zero chance of us getting anything last winter and we got really lucky with that mid January system because it was a thread the needle event.

the models had snow threats and pattern changes on them all last winter that never happened - go check the threads here from last year...........

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

The pattern changes last year were always modeled well in advance and never came to fruition for actual short term snow threats. This year, the pattern HAS changed as far as sensible weather is concerned for us, and the pattern HAS produced short term snowfall chances. It's not like last winter at all.

1. 12/13 - hurricane prior to start of season - 11/12 hurricane prior to start of season

2. 12/13 - very early season snowfall(s) = 11/12 very early season snowfall

3. 12/13 -December much above normal temp - only 0.4 inch snow at newark

11//12- December much above normal temp - 0 inches snow

FEELS LIKE 11/12 !!

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
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Posted

1. 12/13 - hurricane prior to start of season - 11/12 hurricane prior to start of season

2. 12/13 - very early season snowfall(s) = 11/12 very early season snowfall

3. 12/13 -December much above normal temp - only 0.4 inch snow at newark

11//12- December much above normal temp - 0 inches snow

FEELS LIKE 11/12 !!

Anyone with even a slight ability to recognize the pattern knows that this is nothing like last year. End of story.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Anyone with even a slight ability to recognize the pattern knows that this is nothing like last year. End of story.

pattern might be different in some ways but so far the results have been almost identical through today - also forgot to mention after yesterdays heavy rains Newark is now above normal precip for the month and last year december was above normal, BUT both months much below normal snowfall.

also regarding saturdays possible snowfall DT mentioned in his latest update that Northern NJ and NYC has the biggest bust potential with the least amount of snow saturday - we have to remember that fits right in with what has happened so far in the immediate metro area.......comparison to last year promises of storms but they fail to materialize...........

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

First of all EWR only averages around 3" of snow in the month of December and they could easily reach that after Saturday. Secondly the bust potential for our area has nothing to do with the pattern but the storm itself and where it will be bombing off the coast.

pattern might be different in some ways but so far the results have been almost identical through today - also forgot to mention after yesterdays heavy rains Newark is now above normal precip for the month and last year december was above normal, BUT both months much below normal snowfall.

also regarding saturdays possible snowfall DT mentioned in his latest update that Northern NJ and NYC has the biggest bust potential with the least amount of snow saturday - we have to remember that fits right in with what has happened so far in the immediate metro area.......comparison to last year promises of storms but they fail to materialize...........

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Pls dont forget to bookmark the one from early dec when I said dec 20 change

Pls advert ur attention to the 18zgfs. I will book mark ur less than 6 inches combined call as well

Bookmark this. One of the BEST 2 to 3 week period you have seen in a Long time

Hey PB GFI when is this Best 2 -3 week period beginning again ????? Also my call for less then 6 inches combined for the 24th storm and 27th storm verified in the NYC immediate metro with room to spare

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

1. 12/13 - hurricane prior to start of season - 11/12 hurricane prior to start of season

2. 12/13 - very early season snowfall(s) = 11/12 very early season snowfall

3. 12/13 -December much above normal temp - only 0.4 inch snow at newark

11//12- December much above normal temp - 0 inches snow

FEELS LIKE 11/12 !!

I have two legs, you have two legs. I have two arms, you have two arms. I have a brain, you have brain. we must be the same person!!

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Snowfall For 2012-13 Season

(Through the 27th except for a couple of Northern New England spots where totals from yesterday's storm are pending)

Caribou: 26.3"

Burlington, VT: 21.4"

Binghamton: 16.2"

Worcester: 16.2"

Bridgeport: 11.4"

Albany: 9.0"

Portland, ME: 8.9"

Hartford: 8.7"

Newark: 7.0"

Concord, NH: 5.5"

NYC Central Park: 5.1"

NYC JFK: 4.3"

Islip, NY: 4.3"

Allentown: 4.3"

Scranton: 3.3"

Providence: 3.0"

Atlantic City: 2.5"

NYC LaGuardia: 1.7"

Washington Dulles: 1.3"

Boston: 1.1"

Baltimore BWI: 1.0"

Washington National: 0.2"

Wilmington, DE: T

Philadelphia: T

Salibury, MD: 0.0"

Richmond: 0.0"

Norfolk, VA: 0.0"

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