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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

"Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man mad."

...Red of "Shawshank"

I hear ya - going to be interesting to see how the Bastardi's and the Tolleris' deal with their "hope" because they have been banging the arctic cold - snowstorms drums for a while now and refuse to back down- maybe we should ressurect the old topic about the famous mets here..............

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

I hear ya - going to be interesting to see how the Bastardi's and the Tolleris' deal with their "hope" because they have been banging the arctic cold - snowstorms drums for a while now and refuse to back down- maybe we should ressurect the old topic about the famous mets here..............

The next 10 days *do* look very good for snow over the southern half of the province of Quebec and perhaps northern NY State.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Expect the worst, hope for the best is a good saying to live life by as well. Also, good old Murphy's law -- anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.

Most of my philosophy / outlook is based on that song...

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

18z GFS gives the distinct impression that one is on a treadmill...and the target goal is consistently pushed into the future at the rate one is moving...and seemingly forever out of reach.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

18z GFS gives the distinct impression that one is on a treadmill...and the target goal is consistently pushed into the future at the rate one is moving...and seemingly forever out of reach.

agreed 100% - this is the same ole pattern - but don't tell that to JB and DT - who insist cold and snow is on the way xmas week

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12264.gif

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

These models keep on flip flopping to no end

can't believe them when they are showing cold and snow here - because they have been showing that at 7 - 10 days plus for most of this month then when we get within a few days they reverse and cut the storms - don't you notice that ?

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

can't believe them when they are showing cold and snow here - because they have been showing that at 7 - 10 days plus for most of this month then when we get within a few days they reverse and cut the storms - don't you notice that ?

Yes but the tide will turn. Just be patient.

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
Posted

Yes but the tide will turn. Just be patient.

Yeah just like last winter, oh wait nvm.

In all seriousness I wouldn't be surprised to see another horrific winter, the pacific just does not want to cooperate with us and any blocking is not strong enough to overcome it. We would need a 09-10 type block to really overcome the pacific.

In fact we'd probably see a ton of snowstorms with a powerful block with all of the constant pacific energy coming in.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

Yeah just like last winter, oh wait nvm.

In all seriousness I wouldn't be surprised to see another horrific winter, the pacific just does not want to cooperate with us and any blocking is not strong enough to overcome it. We would need a 09-10 type block to really overcome the pacific.

In fact we'd probably see a ton of snowstorms with a powerful block with all of the constant pacific energy coming in.

It's not even winter yet. People need to relax.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

18z GFS was cold after hour 120. It did warm up for the Christmas storm but that's over 200 hours. Other than that ,it was a cold run.

This was a great run...clearly shows the potential with the ULL drifting Northeast as another storm approaches following Christmas. Sure it could be a cutter as the 18z shows verbatim, but that's a nice cold airmass with -10C 850s that arrives around 12/22, coldest air of the season for sure.

The 18z run also continues to show the cut-off ridge developing over Alaska with brutal arctic air racing down the Plains and spilling into the Northeast by New Year. GFS has -20C 850s in here by New Year's, impressive. Sure it's way out there but the signal is growing for a cold outbreak at the end of December or beginning of January.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

This was a great run...clearly shows the potential with the ULL drifting Northeast as another storm approaches following Christmas. Sure it could be a cutter as the 18z shows verbatim, but that's a nice cold airmass with -10C 850s that arrives around 12/22, coldest air of the season for sure.

The 18z run also continues to show the cut-off ridge developing over Alaska with brutal arctic air racing down the Plains and spilling into the Northeast by New Year. GFS has -20C 850s in here by New Year's, impressive. Sure it's way out there but the signal is growing for a cold outbreak at the end of December or beginning of January.

18z GEFS is really cold throughout the whole run after the Friday storm. The storm near Christmas is a miller b on the GEFS with a transfer along the mid atlantic coast. Way different than the op .

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12264.gif

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
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I'd say the GFS is borderline useless outside of 120 hours just as the NAM is almost useless beyond 48. This is probably more pronounced in winter than summer...when they have sharper temperature and pressure contrasts to decipher.

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Snowshack

Snowshack

Posted
Posted

huh ? meteorological winter started december 1st

Most of the pro's that post here have been saying for weeks our best chances would come after 12/20...and the modeling continues to support that. Unless that time period comes and goes with no appreciable change, I think its premature to throw in the towel on the season.

18z gfs looks pretty cold to end the year

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Most of the pro's that post here have been saying for weeks our best chances would come after 12/20...and the modeling continues to support that. Unless that time period comes and goes with no appreciable change, I think its premature to throw in the towel on the season.

18z gfs looks pretty cold to end the year

Not to be in the business of correcting...but during the time of the near miss late November event...I recall a huge groundswell of support for potential snow the first week of December...which was continually pushed back once it became apparent it would fail to come to pass.

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Most of the pro's that post here have been saying for weeks our best chances would come after 12/20...and the modeling continues to support that. Unless that time period comes and goes with no appreciable change, I think its premature to throw in the towel on the season.

18z gfs looks pretty cold to end the year

Any season can turn around and surprise. 1994-1995 for instance was horrible until early February, then a KU storm. You should never completely throw the towel in on winter when it comes to snow. It didn't average above normal for snow, but the 1 KU event was nice.

That being said, December will average warm, this is pretty much said and done. So its up to January and February to turn the temperature regime around.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Any season can turn around and surprise. 1994-1995 for instance was horrible until early February, then a KU storm. You should never completely throw the towel in on winter when it comes to snow. It didn't average above normal for snow, but the 1 KU event was nice.

That being said, December will average warm, this is pretty much said and done. So its up to January and February to turn the temperature regime around.

I suppose the snow in Nevada has put you in a more optimistic frame of mind...

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

I suppose the snow in Nevada has put you in a more optimistic frame of mind...

It is only December 16th. Can't say for sure how the next 3 1/2 months will turn out. Just being rational. I am always skeptical of those who insist a pattern will turn cold and snowy as someone who is indulging in wishful thinking, but its not unreasonable to say that its possible for things to turn around.

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
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It is only December 16th. Can't say for sure how the next 3 1/2 months will turn out. Just being rational. I am always skeptical of those who insist a pattern will turn cold and snowy as someone who is indulging in wishful thinking, but its not unreasonable to say that its possible for things to turn around.

I agree 100%. Forecasting the movements of large masses of air is very difficult and Nature can be very unpredictable. If I do notate an incorrect forecast...be it my own or someone else's...be it short or long range...(mine would likely only be short range as I do not have sufficient knowledge for forays into LR forecasting)...it is not so much a knock on the forecaster...but either just a historical note for purposes of potentially avoiding where the forecaster went wrong in the future....or an effort to shed light on situations where I believe an attempt at misrepresenting the facts regarding a forecast has taken place or is in the midst of taking place.

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