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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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earthlight

earthlight

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The head moderator is a good man and very intelligent...but that does not mean he is 100% immune from any type of questioning or comments that are not entirely favorable.

Well I just think the snarky comments are unnecessary and out of place...in the spirit of the holiday season I'll just accept it for what it is and not start any more arguments.

But I will say this: the thread is pinned because it is a discussion thread on the future pattern. Posts that were moved/deleted from that thread for a reason -- because they were better suited for the banter thread or OBS/Disco thread or a specific storm thread.

That's the only reason. This forum is a great place for plenty of opinions and thoughts, but we need to make our best effort to try and keep them organized.

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

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At least two high-profiled mets in the Medium Range Winter Thread on the main forum state that our brief 3-week winter period will end on January 15 as tropical forcing becomes unfavorable again along with a remaining cold upper stratosphere. After January 15, we will probably revert back to December 2012's pattern again for the rest of the winter. :axe:

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tmagan

tmagan

Posted
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At least two high-profiled mets in the Medium Range Winter Thread on the main forum state that our brief 3-week winter period will end on January 15 as tropical forcing becomes unfavorable again along with a remaining cold upper stratosphere. After January 15, we will probably revert back to December 2012's pattern again for the rest of the winter. :axe:

I have been starting to wonder if we can have another top ten warmest winter.

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rcad1

rcad1

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That sucks if they turn out to be right. ESP after listening to DT and reading others posts about how Jan looked so good and that even Feb wasn't looking too bad. I knew this winter was reminding me alot of last winter!!!

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tim

tim

Posted
Posted

At least two high-profiled mets in the Medium Range Winter Thread on the main forum state that our brief 3-week winter period will end on January 15 as tropical forcing becomes unfavorable again along with a remaining cold upper stratosphere. After January 15, we will probably revert back to December 2012's pattern again for the rest of the winter. :axe:

...Larry Cosgrove is still very bullish on the cold/stormy period

coming up...he outlined the period after the wed/thurs storm is when

the cold will show up in ernest..with the new years storm certainly a better

chance for I-95..also said cold to stick around thru january..

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
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you will be lucky this winter to see 6 inches not including the freak November accumulations - next weeks totals should be a couple inches at most for both systems combined in most of NYC metro and those cold temps seen on the 12Z GFS longer range cannot be believed.................

I am beginning to wonder if my amounts are too high......Happy Festivus !
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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

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Anyone see a pattern, this could just be coincidence though.

Over the past few years, there have back to back weather events:

• Winters of 09-10 and 10-11 were back to back snowy winters

• Summers of 2010 and 2011 were back to back warm and humid summers

• 2011 had Hurricane Irene, 2012 had Hurricane Sandy (back to back years with landfalling tropical systems)

• Oct 2011 had a early season snowstorm, Nov 2012 had an early season snowstorm

• Winter of 11-12 was warm, could that mean we have a back to back warm winter this winter?

Could just be a coincidence but I hope we don't have back to back warm winters, even though this one is beginning to look like it.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Anyone see a pattern, this could just be coincidence though.

Over the past few years, there have back to back weather events:

• Winters of 09-10 and 10-11 were back to back snowy winters

• Summers of 2010 and 2011 were back to back warm and humid summers

• 2011 had Hurricane Irene, 2012 had Hurricane Sandy (back to back years with landfalling tropical systems)

• Oct 2011 had a early season snowstorm, Nov 2012 had an early season snowstorm

• Winter of 11-12 was warm, could that mean we have a back to back warm winter this winter?

Could just be a coincidence but I hope we don't have back to back warm winters, even though this one is beginning to look like it.

I don't think its a coincidence -add to that list :

11:/12 - long range forecasters bust - sure looks like a good possibility in 12/13 with allthe model hugging that goes on - we won't even get into that some of them charge $$ for inaccurate forecasts........... Happy Festivus !!

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EasternLI

EasternLI

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The premise for his forecast is that the WAA is overdone on the GFS which leads to the SLP zipping north as opposed to transferring to the coast earlier (ie: Euro) if the WAA was less.

Your too kind, he just jumps on the snowiest solution and has for quite some time now. I remember back in the day I used to like him.

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Storm At Sea

Storm At Sea

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I'm not being kind; he states this clearly in his tweet. He is basically going with a JMA/Euro scenario. Ever since he left Accuweather, his forecasts have become quite questionable. It's almost as if he no longer has the supervision to correct for some of the outlandish calls. I think this storm is pretty text book for an App. cutter with possible transfer. The only places it really matters for is from Poconos to Worcester as a transfer would probably mean a decent thump snow for those areas.

Your too kind, he just jumps on the snowiest solution and has for quite some time now. I remember back in the day I used to like him.

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Edge Weather

Edge Weather

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amazing that JB is still sticking with this map and with the 27th storm being frozen

https://twitter.com/i/#!/BigJoeBastardi/media/slideshow?url=pic.twitter.com%2FR2cTBpYb

This is definitely a Euro/UKMET/JMA call. The Euro currently shows Sussex County, NJ receiving more than 1 inch of precip with both the surface and 850 levels below freezing, with it rising above freezing only as the precip is coming to an end. If the Euro/UKMET/JMA are correct, this call will be pretty close to accurate. It was kind of funny to wake up this morning and look at the Euro change back to looking like the NOGAPS looked before I went to sleep last night. And the UKMET has consistently consolidated this low over Virginia and kept it south and east of us and somehow that model has the second highest 500mb accuracy ratings, no matter how much people may hate it. My gut is that people hate it because we only have it in 24 hour steps, so it is difficult to use, but it has clearly kept this low in a favorable spot for us the entire time.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
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1978 had a cold rain Christmas eve and morning but well north and west there was almost 10" of wet snow...That was a close call for the city...I saw a few wet snow flakes mixed in Christmas Eve...1978-79 was an analog for this year by some...That year was wet and then cold...early January snows and the February arctic blast with PD1 storm...I think it's wishfull thinking to expect another winter like that...

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

I'm not being kind; he states this clearly in his tweet. He is basically going with a JMA/Euro scenario. Ever since he left Accuweather, his forecasts have become quite questionable. It's almost as if he no longer has the supervision to correct for some of the outlandish calls. I think this storm is pretty text book for an App. cutter with possible transfer. The only places it really matters for is from Poconos to Worcester as a transfer would probably mean a decent thump snow for those areas.

the interesting part of all of this is how he puts his spin on how he was actually right about his map when he was obviously wrong while he counts the dough he is bringing in from subscriptions to his dumbell I mean weatherbell forecasting business - I will eat my words if his map verifies for the NYC metro and issue an apology but I doubt I will have too - by the way HAPPY FESTIVUS !!! BTW Festivus is the day you actually tell people what you think of them!

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