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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

you will be lucky this winter to see 6 inches not including the freak November accumulations - next weeks totals should be a couple inches at most for both systems combined in most of NYC metro and those cold temps seen on the 12Z GFS longer range cannot be believed.................

Dude , there are 3 systems on the playing field now between now and new years for snow or something wintry

It's not just the GFS the euro ensembles show it 20 below normal for the entire week after new years. Im curious what models or analysis r u using to come up with ur forecast

You said the same thing when most of us pointed to dec 20 as a pattern change

How about ths for a forecast

You are goin to see one of the best 2 to 3 week turnarounds that we've seen around here in a long time

Most weeklies point to it. And it's almost being modeled everywhere

So if you like snow and winter this is it.

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Neblizzard

Neblizzard

Posted
Posted

Dude , there are 3 systems on the playing field now between now and new years for snow or something wintry

It's not just the GFS the euro ensembles show it

20 below normal for the entire week after new years. Im curious what models or analysis r u using to come up with ur forecast

You said the same thing when most of us pointed to dec 20 as a pattern change

How about ths for a forecast

You are goin to see one of the best 2 to 3 week turnarounds that we've seen around here in a long time

Most weeklies point to it. And it's almost being modeled everywhere

So if you like snow and winter this is it.

And don't forget the CFS which basically shows the US in the icebox for January...

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Dude , there are 3 systems on the playing field now between now and new years for snow or something wintry

It's not just the GFS the euro ensembles show it 20 below normal for the entire week after new years. Im curious what models or analysis r u using to come up with ur forecast

You said the same thing when most of us pointed to dec 20 as a pattern change

How about ths for a forecast

You are goin to see one of the best 2 to 3 week turnarounds that we've seen around here in a long time

Most weeklies point to it. And it's almost being modeled everywhere

So if you like snow and winter this is it.

I am going to save your post and seeif you are correct

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

I am going to save your post and seeif you are correct

Pls dont forget to bookmark the one from early dec when I said dec 20 change

Pls advert ur attention to the 18zgfs. I will book mark ur less than 6 inches combined call as well

Bookmark this. One of the BEST 2 to 3 week period you have seen in a Long time

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Pls dont forget to bookmark the one from early dec when I said dec 20 change

Pls advert ur attention to the 18zgfs. I will book mark ur less than 6 inches combined call as well

Bookmark this. One of the BEST 2 to 3 week period you have seen in a Long time

OK game on then !

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Arctic tundra out there compared to the last year or so of winter conditions.

Eh... I couldn't help thinking all day today that a big cold front went through on December 21st and it stayed near 40 til sunset... even now its only 39 here. Not exactly an arctic or even cold air mass. Next couple days look like low 40s for highs... i.e. normal.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

I could be wrong but I think Dec. 1-21, 2012 is warmer that Dec. 1-21, 2011 even though 12/21/11 was 62 degrees...Last year ended up averaging 43.3...A top five warmest...So far 2012 is averaging 44.7...Dec. 2012 will probably end up averaging just less than November...Dec. was never warmer than Nov. in any year...The 29 min is the only day below freezing...It could set a new monthly record if the cold air continues to be fantasy on the models...

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Eh... I couldn't help thinking all day today that a big cold front went through on December 21st and it stayed near 40 til sunset... even now its only 39 here. Not exactly an arctic or even cold air mass. Next couple days look like low 40s for highs... i.e. normal.

There's a reinforcing cold shot Sunday when we see the core of -10C 850s moving into the area. I would imagine we'll be in the low 20s here Sunday night and mid 30s for highs Monday and Tuesday, which is below normal.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

you will be lucky this winter to see 6 inches not including the freak November accumulations - next weeks totals should be a couple inches at most for both systems combined in most of NYC metro and those cold temps seen on the 12Z GFS longer range cannot be believed.................

Unfortunately I am still going with this couple inches total for both of next weeks storms with the couple inches 12/25 - nothing for 12/27..................its apparent that the what actually verifies is less cold and storm tracks too far inland - extreme cold and big snowstorms on the extended GFS is complete nonsense it has been trying to pull all month...

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