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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

I wish eduggs would come back to post in our forum. He's being attacked in the NE forum because he interprets what models actually show. He finally responds to the constant barrage and is immediately threatened by a mod. Odd bunch.

I was wrong because my maps did not have the 0.01 for ct.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

12Z Euro shows blocking not strong enough so an inland solution giving us mainly liquid 12/27 event - good luck going against the Euro at this range ..............

The Euro has been wrong before in this timeframe. Not saying it's wrong but we have 6 days to go for this storm.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

12Z Euro shows blocking not strong enough so an inland solution giving us mainly liquid 12/27 event - good luck going against the Euro at this range ..............

Nah, dont put too much stock in this 1 solution at day 7 a. the ensembles have been consistent with coming up east of the mtns and forming a secondary of the va coast .

2 .this is still 1000 miles east of where it was at day 9

wait for ensembles ......

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Nah, dont put too much stock in this 1 solution at day 7 a. the ensembles have been consistent with coming up east of the mtns and forming a secondary of the va coast .

2 .this is still 1000 miles east of where it was at day 9

wait for ensembles ......

yea forgot about those ensembles - whewwwwww :)

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

yea forgot about those ensembles - whewwwwww :)

For the last 3 days the Ensembles argued a system coming up the Tenn Valley and redevoloping off the VA coast , at that time the operational had the system over WI ,

3 days later the Ensembles haven`t changed and the Operational now has the system up the APPS , thats 1000 mile treack east in 3 days fwiw , systems dont like to climb the apps they usually like the ocean when they get far east . The GFS - JMA - CMC are all east of the mtns , so Its possible the Euro operational takes a day or 2 to catch on .

The xmas storm does hold the key , so 4 days out on the Euro goin up west of the apps concerns me more than a day 7 operational .

so I will wait for the Ensembles

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

Upton takes away any precip christmas day and mainly liquid for the mid/late week storm

http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html

Mount Holly the same

http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KPHI.html

HPC's gridded forecasts are quite different, but that may be due to the fact that they discounted the 12z ECMWF.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

It's the GFS operational and emsembles , the JMA , the Canadian and the European ensembles that take the primary through the Tenn Valley then develop a secondary off the VA coast vs the European operational at this time which takes the storm up the Apps and west of all the other global models . As it is the European operational is some 800 miles east of where it was 2 days ago . Something to hang your hat on . It's what HPC believes as the Euro operational is alone right now . And at 7 days away I wouldn't worry about rain snow lines , just focus ths cutting under the block and coming further east before it makes it turn

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

And you live on LI, you shouldn't be expecting snow in this pattern, you need a perfect track.

That is quite a remarkable insight...

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dbc

dbc

Posted
Posted

12z OP GFS get extremely cold, though it keeps getting pushed back. 2mT down to -9°F!

verycold.jpg

That looks identical to January 1994. First real freezing rain threat next week in a long time. Was an El Nino winter. 1994 was an analog that was floating around in my head for this winter. Maybe, just maybe.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

I want 60 inches of snow from late December - the end of January like 2011 :snowwindow:

you will be lucky this winter to see 6 inches not including the freak November accumulations - next weeks totals should be a couple inches at most for both systems combined in most of NYC metro and those cold temps seen on the 12Z GFS longer range cannot be believed.................

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isnice

isnice

Posted
Posted

you will be lucky this winter to see 6 inches not including the freak November accumulations - next weeks totals should be a couple inches at most for both systems combined in most of NYC metro and those cold temps seen on the 12Z GFS longer range cannot be believed.................

The Euro looks pretty nice too in the long range...

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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted

you will be lucky this winter to see 6 inches not including the freak November accumulations - next weeks totals should be a couple inches at most for both systems combined in most of NYC metro and those cold temps seen on the 12Z GFS longer range cannot be believed.................

A statement like this is a clear indication that you're the kind of weenie that has a built-in optimism defense mechanism. It's a coping tool that only the most extreme weenies utilize to defend against disappointment. You and Anthony have a lot more in common than you might think. :weenie::weenie:

In all seriousness, I think making any definitive statements about the rest of winter is rather silly considering how difficult just forecasting the next week will be.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

A statement like this is a clear indication that you're the kind of weenie that has a built-in optimism defense mechanism. It's a coping tool that only the most extreme weenies utilize to defend against disappointment. You and Anthony have a lot more in common than you might think. :weenie::weenie:

In all seriousness, I think making any definitive statements about the rest of winter is rather silly considering how difficult just forecasting the next week will be.

Reverse psychology I was trying to use

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