Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[earthlight]

Euro is east, better, less amplified, stronger block..you name it.

[Dsnowx53]

Euro is east, better, less amplified, stronger block..you name it.

It evolves very differently from the GFS, though.

[Dsnowx53]

The Euro definitely had more blocking than its previous runs and actually an even lower height field in parts of Canada that led to the storm not gaining much latitude at all initially -- it gained less latitude than the GFS. However, as the run goes on, there is not as much confluence in our vicinity as the GFS had, and the flow is SW to NE as opposed to NW to SE at the 500mb level during the storm's approach.

[earthlight]

Euro still warm and wrapped up...but much improved aloft.

Speaking of which the CMC is not on NYC..it's south of LI.

[Weathergun]

Storm still cuts on Euro, because there is no low in the 50/50 low position, at 24hrs prior.

[NYCSuburbs]

For the little that it's worth, the CMC p-type maps have a mix along I-95 and a snowstorm for the interior NE with NW Sussex county near the snow/mix line. Still going to keep changing though, the CMC isn't too much of a reliable model especially in its longer range.

[CooL]

Storm still cuts on Euro, because there is no low in the 50/50 low position, at 24hrs prior.

The Xmas vort is way more amped up this run (which is an outlier btw)..It actually cuts to our west and pumps heights. We loose our confluence this way because it connects with the block and allows for storm 2 to cut.

Nothing supports the euro with that xmas storm atm

[MJO812]

0z GGEM for the Christmas wave

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro's track is more or less not possible, it goes right up the Apps...we've seen that before maybe 3 times in 50 years, most recently in March 08 but its highly unlikely. Its interesting to see the Euro/Canadian both still show something for Christmas.

[MJO812]

0z GEFS members.

Only 2 members are amped with the Christmas wave.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zf132.html

[earthlight]

[CooL]

UKMET has a very very favorable look to it at 144

[SnowGoose69]

This currently appears to me to be the first calendar year since 1998 without a 6 inch snowstorm for Central Park, we've got 12 days to change that.

[Guest Pamela]

This currently appears to me to be the first calendar year since 1998 without a 6 inch snowstorm for Central Park, we've got 12 days to change that.

The only thing I recall from 2007 was the sleet and snow storm in late March...was it 6 inches +?

Edit...seemed to be 5.5 inches...monthly total was 6.0"....but 0.5" fell a couple weeks earlier in that month.

[MJO812]

Euro ensemble mean looks like the gefs.

[NYCSuburbs]

UKMET has a very very favorable look to it at 144

It's much faster with the clipper compared to the ECM, while at the same time showing a stronger clipper than the GFS, with a 1002mb low in SW PA racing towards Nova Scotia. I'm not sure if that produces snow here though as the UKMET's long range is only in 24-hour intervals. At least in the US, it's closer to the CMC than the ECM.

[MJO812]

6z GFS is more north with the Christmas wave. Looks similar to the GGEM. Maybe slightly more north.

[MJO812]

6z GFS is OTS with the big storm. Looked like a miller a on this run.

[Rtd208]

Typical GFS, it will eventually come back to a solution similar to what we saw at 0z, I doubt the 6z run is correct. In my opinion, I think our chances of us seeing our first significant snowfall of the 2012-2013 winter are quite good.

6z GFS is OTS with the big storm. Looked like a miller a on this run.

[MJO812]

6z gefs has a nice track. Further northwest than the op.

[bluewave]

Right now I would guess that the GFS ensemble mean is further east than the Euro due to

its bias of knocking down the SE Ridge too soon.

Euro

GFS

[NEG NAO]

6z ges has a nice track. Further northwest than the op.

this is actually very good news that the 6z GFS OP is a miss to the south and east at this range because that is what the GFS is famous for at that range - a cutter is becoming less likely - also good that the ensembles are west of the OPhttp://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemblep12180.gif

[JBG]

The only thing I recall from 2007 was the sleet and snow storm in late March...was it 6 inches +?

Edit...seemed to be 5.5 inches...monthly total was 6.0"....but 0.5" fell a couple weeks earlier in that month.

I think the March 17, 2007 storm was over 6" for most of the area; not sure about KNYC though.

[Edge Weather]

The 6z DGEX looks nearly identical to the two prior GFS runs and is in line exactly with the means of both the GFS and the Euro, with a redevloping surface low near the Delmarva that scoots east, south of Long Island, while intensifying. That is currently the consensus. Will it end up being reality? That is the question.

[West Milford Highlander]

The 6z DGEX looks nearly identical to the two prior GFS runs and is in line exactly with the means of both the GFS and the Euro, with a redevloping surface low near the Delmarva that scoots east, south of Long Island, while intensifying. That is currently the consensus. Will it end up being reality? That is the question.

Tis' always the question, good to see more of a consensus, unfortunately well too early as we've seen the past 3-4 weeks....

[bluewave]

The 6z DGEX looks nearly identical to the two prior GFS runs and is in line exactly with the means of both the GFS and the Euro, with a redevloping surface low near the Delmarva that scoots east, south of Long Island, while intensifying. That is currently the consensus. Will it end up being reality? That is the question.

The Euro ensemble mean is showing the middle of the road idea of the primary cutting west of the Apps

with a transfer to the new low near the coast. It still looks like even the secondary runs inside ORF and

goes near Southern NJ and out to Suffolk. Interior sections would stay cold under this solution but

the coast would have p-type issues due to too much onshore flow initially.

[Weathergun]

Right now I would guess that the GFS ensemble mean is further east than the Euro due to

its bias of knocking down the SE Ridge too soon.

Euro

GFS

I think it might also have to do with the Baffin Island block and 50/50 low being stronger beforhand, on the GFS ensemble mean than on the Euro ensemble mean.

[bluewave]

I think it might also have to do with the Baffin Island block and 50/50 low being stronger beforhand, on the GFS ensemble mean than on the Euro ensemble mean.

Yeah, it also looks like the Euro ens builds the ridging further southward just off the East Coast

allowing the storm to track further west than the GFS is showing. It may be the energy coming

into the West Coast at the time not allowing the ridge out west to build enough at the time.

That extension south of the ridge just east of us is what spoiled the Valentine's Day storm here.

[PB GFI]

Christmas Morning , Nice to see

[Sampson]

I wish eduggs would come back to post in our forum. He's being attacked in the NE forum because he interprets what models actually show. He finally responds to the constant barrage and is immediately threatened by a mod. Odd bunch.