Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[SnoSki14]

I'm going to predict a MECS with the post Christmas storm and a nice dusting for Christmas morning maybe up to an inch or two for some.

[Dan76]

www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/6214-nycphl-dec-26-27-boxing-day-blizzard-part-8/

The memories.....

[Absolute Humidity]

www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/6214-nycphl-dec-26-27-boxing-day-blizzard-part-8/

The memories.....

By far, that was the most awesome winter storm to track on this board or its predecessor, EasternWx.

[IsentropicLift]

00z NAM now showing over 1.5" QPF widespread for Friday

[Snowshack]

secondary is now further south on the oz gfs for the 27th...over north carolina at 174 and off the VA coast by 180...nice trend today. At least it gives us something to track while we put up with the soaker friday

[Weathergun]

[Kaner587]

00z gfs has a very long duration precip event for 26-27th. Looks cold...frozen interior more liquid coast although 850 line never makes it north of southern part of LI/NYC. Verbatim probably some snow for NYC and a good amount just inland. I like the evolution of the storm too with our block (and subsequent christmas day disturbance squashing heights a bit)suppressing what would otherwise be a cutter

[Superstorm93]

00z GFS has a beautiful storm on the 27th now with overrunning precip and throwback from the coastal. Looks like a solid snowstorm for much of the area. Pretty much illustrates what earthlight and other folks on this board have been hammering away at for the past few days. System tries to cut into the OHV/Lakes, but smashes into the block and transfers to the east where redevelopment occurs.

With a pretty decent cold source showing up, I'm actually somewhat interested in this event now.

[isnice]

Major ice storm in northern VA at 168.

[Kaner587]

Also if we are lucky enough to get a snowstorm from this threat (I have my doubts) as advertised by the GFS would be an enjoyable storm evolution. Overrunning precip with secondary redevelopment off HAT, increasing qpf. Lets see if it holds serve and how the other models trend over the next few days

[Dsnowx53]

The huge difference is that there is a solid area of confluence BETWEEN the system and the block. It's really a beautiful setup. Hopefully that confluence is for real.

[Kaner587]

00z GFS has a beautiful storm on the 27th now with overrunning precip and throwback from the coastal. Looks like a solid snowstorm for much of the area. Pretty much illustrates what earthlight and other folks on this board have been hammering away at for the past few days. System tries to cut into the OHV/Lakes, but smashes into the block and transfers to the east where redevelopment occurs.

With a pretty decent cold source showing up, I'm actually somewhat interested in this event now.

Totally agree. Lets see some model consistency for a change (doubt it lol)

[Kaner587]

The huge difference is that there is a solid area of confluence BETWEEN the system and the block. It's really a beautiful setup. Hopefully that confluence is for real.

Ya...and as much as it appears real, for the past couple storm threats that for one run or another showed us getting some kind of frozen precip, that confluence was decidedly absent. Huge implications for our potential storm threat.

[Kaner587]

Looks like an HECS incoming at 324 ha. Fantasy land

[Heisy]

earthlight, we truly do all of a sudden have some pretty sick confluence and a 50/50 low...Very interesting

[Dsnowx53]

Ya...and as much as it appears real, for the past couple storm threats that for one run or another showed us getting some kind of frozen precip, that confluence was decidedly absent. Huge implications for our potential storm threat.

Yeah. Of course I'm still skeptical. But the other runs for those "threats" had no true confluence in between the shortwave and the ridging in Canada. So those ridges just bridged together. Here, though, there is a constant area of screaming WNW flow and vorticity in between the shortwave and the block, which helps to flatten our heights. That's something you see in the classic overrunning/coastal systems and not even close to what we were seeing in the other "threats".

There is still room for the confluence to escape to the northeast, though. That's what I'm still worried about.

[Superstorm93]

Central Canadian block

[SnowGoose69]

Yeah. Of course I'm still skeptical. But the other runs for those "threats" had no true confluence in between the shortwave and the ridging in Canada. So those ridges just bridged together. Here, though, there is a constant area of screaming WNW flow and vorticity in between the shortwave and the block, which helps to flatten our heights. That's something you see in the classic overrunning/coastal systems and not even close to what we were seeing in the other "threats".

There is still room for the confluence to escape to the northeast, though. That's what I'm still worried about.

I think this run may be a bit too suppressed, the eventual solution will probably be something more north and west, still think we will not have a snowless December in NYC though even with a further west track, there would certainly be some snow to start.

[Kaner587]

Yeah. Of course I'm still skeptical. But the other runs for those "threats" had no true confluence in between the shortwave and the ridging in Canada. So those ridges just bridged together. Here, though, there is a constant area of screaming WNW flow and vorticity in between the shortwave and the block, which helps to flatten our heights. That's something you see in the classic overrunning/coastal systems and not even close to what we were seeing in the other "threats".

There is still room for the confluence to escape to the northeast, though. That's what I'm still worried about.

Agreed was just pointing out the absence of such a signal in threats that don't have a high chance of producing anything frozen, as with the most recent storm and the one affecting the Midwest currently. This definitely has a different feel to it. Maybe he GFS can score a coup

[CooL]

That is a hecs of a setup around new years

and oh yeah, before that i doubt that sytem gets that far north in the ohio valley, especially if the ridge out west continues to trend weaker..Also the block sends down a nice piece of confluence and then phases with the storm to our south

[IsentropicLift]

You don't really need a bombing secondary low in this setup, just a secondary. At hr 171 snow is on the doorstep and doesn't really stop until around hr 192-204 time frame. That's about close to a 24 hour event. Reminds me of PDII with the initial over running followed by the secondary. The secondary low itself wasn't all that impressive but it did its job. Could be one of those rare setups that only come around once every few years if that. The 00z GFS verbatim would be in excess of 1.00" QPF for everyone. More south.

[Dsnowx53]

That is a hecs of a setup around new years

and oh yeah, before that i doubt that sytem gets that far north in the ohio valley, especially if the ridge out west continues to trend weaker..Also the block sends down a nice piece of confluence and then phases with the storm to our south

If the GFS were to be right with its 500mb evolution and its constant pieces of confluence being sent downstream from the block, then yes, I would agree with this.

There is obviously synoptic confluence that will be evident on all model data. But there are also smaller scale "pieces" of vorticity that are strung out which -- although small scale -- can do a lot to suppress a system. 2/6/10 had similar pieces, though obviously that was a more suppressed pattern to begin with. But these smaller pieces are going to be harder to forecast this far out, and there's a very good chance that the Euro won't have these pieces and will show a very different solution.

[MJO812]

0z GGEM pops east of LI. .

[WEATHER53]

Yeah, the interior sections of the Northeast could stay cold if the ensembles don't trend any further

west over the next week. The GFS ensemble mean looks pretty close to the Euro ensembles at

this point.

I've seen this look before. Some real good DC snows started off looking like this.

[MJO812]

0z GEFS

[NYCSuburbs]

Hoping for something out of this one... I'm back in NE NJ for a while in late Dec and Jan, tomorrow marks the 11th month since the last time I saw over an inch of snow. The block is more impressive this time and definitely points to potential at least for the Northeast from the storm next week, perhaps for the NYC area as well if the initial track and transfer is far south enough. For what it's worth (which isn't much) the 0z CMC looks a bit more GFS-like compared to its 12z run yesterday, although the models haven't been consistent on this one, not that it should be any surprise 180 hours out. I'd like my chances better further inland than in NYC at this time but there's still time for trends hopefully in our favor.

So far the month has been snowless in NYC, I'd be surprised if it ends up this way by 12/31 and would expect at least some accumulations by then but I'd place my hopes on this storm or perhaps something around New Year's to get that to happen.

[Weathergun]

0z GEFS has stronger 50/50 low, comapred to 12z. :

12z:

http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNA168.gif

0z:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...mbHGHTNA156.gif

[earthlight]

0z GGEM pops a low right near NYC. So this run was a late pop.

That surface low is not even on Long Island.

[MJO812]

That surface low is not even on Long Island.

You have to excuse me, I just woke up. My eyes are being weird

[NYCSuburbs]

This is the most impressive signal I've seen modeled so far this month, more so than the 12/18 event in the medium range which ultimately turned into the rain event. The ridging in eastern Canada this week was both exaggerated by the medium range models and was weaker than the upcoming block. Interesting possibilities ahead...