Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[Allsnow]

Hr 186 snow from ttn north

Hr 189 metro area getting crushed

[FPizz]

Hr 186 snow from ttn north

Hr 189 metro area getting crushed

Nice, let's get this inside 100 hours

[isnice]

Ok, I know it's a longshot, but I'm just getting that strange feeling that the 25th "storm" will overperform. I mean, yes, it's a very weak low. But, if it maintains enough strength to get over the Apps, or if most of its energy is transfered to the coast, the Atlantic Ocean IS pretty warm for this time of year. We COULD be looking at some type of enhancement, right? It's worth watching IMO. That shortwave is more potent than is projected on the surface:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F19%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=132&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

[Snowshack]

Transfer to the VA coast, and 850's actually cool over our area at 192...id take this over 12z!

[Allsnow]

192 the coast flirts with change over. Central pa and north jersey get crushed. Low goes from delmarva to south of LI

[NEG NAO]

18z gfs looks to be alot more interesting with the storm after xmass. Hr 180 frozen preciep from mason dixon line south. Hr 183 new low over sc, plenty cold here for snow

low is developing over eastern VA

\

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12192.gif

then takes the classic track from VA coast northeastward remember this run this is probably the best run yet that makes the most sense

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12204.gif

[Heisy]

Wow pretty epic ice storm for some, 2m temps stretch from Philly all the way in the valley to NC! RH is overhead....I guess this is what DT is talking about how the storm will transfer.

[earthlight]

This type of pattern screams redeveloping surface low. The GFS has been trending stronger with this block over Central Canada for days. We'll see if it's got the right idea or not. Would like to see some other globals start catching on as well.

[Allsnow]

Verbatim this is a warning snowfall for the metro area, before any possible change over

[nzucker]

This type of pattern screams redeveloping surface low. The GFS has been trending stronger with this block over Central Canada for days. We'll see if it's got the right idea or not. Would like to see some other globals start catching on as well.

It also looks to me as if the Northern Hemisphere is cooling down, with more areas of below average heights on the map than we've seen since Winter 10-11. I really like the signal for a -EPO ridge moving into Central Canada and forcing the storm track south.

Two snow threats are on the radar: a weaker system on Christmas Day, and then the bowling ball on the 27th. Even if the second threat is mostly rain, it could still set the table as the airmass is getting progressively colder behind each of these systems, thanks to an improving Pacific and climo.

[PB GFI]

HR 192- so im not getting crazy but as per 18z GFS

surface temps in mid to upper 30`s

850`s minus 3 ,

with 1 in qpf - So the would easily bring cold air to surface . This is what the ensembles have been sniffing.

not to mention - this system will come on the heels of a cold air mass , and the models never prog low level cold air correctly a week out .

Fingers crossed , lets hope xmas system are the train tracks for where this redevolps

[CooL]

Great trends, but this is going to change a million times. I continue to think the monster LC idea is off the table

[Weathergun]

The Chrismas wave further south, keeps the baroclinic zone further south for the 26-27th storm.

[bluewave]

The Euro ensemble mean still has the transfer too far west for the city and coast.

[CooL]

The Euro ensemble mean still has the transfer too far west for the city and coast.

Yeah but the mean that far out, you just don't know. Some are probably in chicago, some are probably ots. That's the inbetween.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

As I said before, Due to the response of the November 7th, 2012 Nor'easter, there should be very blocky heights at East-Central Canada around Christmas Eve, which will prevent the primary from cutting and allowing the secondary to redevelop. The question is where will the secondary end up and will this go according to plan?

[NEG NAO]

this is very impressive

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnow192.gif

[bluewave]

Yeah but the mean that far out, you just don't know. Some are probably in chicago, some are probably ots. That's the inbetween.

Too much of a trough out west coupled with just enough SE Ridge for this to be cold enough for coastal

sections.

[MJO812]

The freezing line straddled the coast throughout the whole event, even before the low transferred on the GFS.

[RowanBrandon]

It's more latitude than anything especially on the first thump before the transfer.

[MJO812]

The great DT

"WHY the SHIFT EAST? The run of the gfs SEES the REX Block... and the REX BLOCK says"

[isnice]

You can tell the sad state of affairs of this winter. We're analyzing a 180+ run of the 18z GFS

Does no one else see the potential for the 25th? Or am I completely alone on that one?

[RowanBrandon]

Rex block must be the new catchphrase of 2012. I'm already tired of it.

[SnowGoose69]

You can tell the sad state of affairs of this winter. We're analyzing a 180+ run of the 18z GFS

Does no one else see the potential for the 25th? Or am I completely alone on that one?

If there was some sort of high to the north the 25th event could be somewhat significant because you'd get good overrunning but the high is a bit late making its way across central Canada so that event probably has to rely on the surface system being a bit stronger than most models currently show.

[MJO812]

If there was some sort of high to the north the 25th event could be somewhat significant because you'd get good overrunning but the high is a bit late making its way across central Canada so that event probably has to rely on the surface system being a bit stronger than most models currently show.

We could see snow showers from that little wave which would put down minor accumulations area wide.

[earthlight]

Too much of a trough out west coupled with just enough SE Ridge for this to be cold enough for coastal

sections.

If the block trends any stronger we could be looking at a significant winter weather event over the Interior.

[bluewave]

If the block trends any stronger we could be looking at a significant winter weather event over the Interior.

Yeah, the interior sections of the Northeast could stay cold if the ensembles don't trend any further

west over the next week. The GFS ensemble mean looks pretty close to the Euro ensembles at

this point.

[nzucker]

It's definitely a close call for the NW suburbs as currently modeled, speaking of the post-Christmas system. If we have a leading wave on Christmas, that could dampen out heights on the East Coast and allow this to track further south, supporting more of a frozen event for NYC metro. A lot depends on that leading wave and where it leaves the baroclinic zone.

[Guest Pamela]

It's definitely a close call for the NW suburbs as currently modeled, speaking of the post-Christmas system. If we have a leading wave on Christmas, that could dampen out heights on the East Coast and allow this to track further south, supporting more of a frozen event for NYC metro. A lot depends on that leading wave and where it leaves the baroclinic zone.

Any attempt to draw a rain / snow line 180 hours prior to an event is misguided...(not saying that you are doing that here...just discussing model output)...becomes a feasible task inside 96 - 72 hours.

[nzucker]

Any attempt to draw a rain / snow line 180 hours prior to an event is misguided...(not saying that you are doing that here...just discussing model output)...becomes a feasible task inside 96 - 72 hours.

I am just thinking it could be a snow-->rain set-up as the low approaches which often benefits areas north and west of the City, or at least outside the urban heat island like Long Island and Westchester. Similar events were 12/19/08, which had 8" here and like 4" at Central Park, and 1/28/09, where we had 6.5" and the City had 2-3"...there have been countless SW flow/overrunning examples like this over the years of course. 2007-08 also had a couple in December which gave Dobbs Ferry a few inches but almost nothing further south in NYC proper.