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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

DT is now calling for an icestorm with the big storm next week lol

he was not calling for it he was saying how if the current model runs were correct which he still thinks they are not there would be an icing event east of the mountains away from the big cities !! "The northwest third of New Jersey and the lower half of the Hudson Valley in Southern New York and interior portions of Connecticut and Rhode Island."

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

Posted
Posted

he was not calling for it he was saying how if the current model runs were correct which he still thinks they are not there would be an icing event east of the mountains away from the big cities !! "The northwest third of New Jersey and the lower half of the Hudson Valley in Southern New York and interior portions of Connecticut and Rhode Island."

Ack! I live in that mentioned area. :(

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Look at the GFS surface temps maps under that precip at hr 192 . - 850`s plus 5 or greater - surface at 30 - lower hudosn valley ,???

maybe DT seeing that....Looked to me me like the model was trapping low level cold air as it picking up on a secondary

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Right now I can see a front end to snow to rain and thats about it. The storm is likely too far west on today's OP runs of the GFS/Euro because the pattern is simply too progressive along the West Coast at the time of the storm to allow such a bowling ball feature to form over OK/AR and then track nearly due north at the same time. Still, I don't think the track will be far enough east for this to come close to being an all snow event but I could see something with several inches on the front end, the high position is good and there would likely be some sort of advanced overrunning.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

NWS Upton

IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NW EJECTS A PIECE OF ENERGY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ENERGY DIGS QUICKLY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A LOW AT THE SURFACE FORMS AND WILL TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE GFS BEING THE QUICKER SOLUTION. AT THIS TIME...THICKNESS AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA IF THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLS OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AND DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF. THIS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
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Snowshack

Snowshack

Posted
Posted

Upton has mid 40's and rain for Nassau county Wednesday Nice pattern change!!!

ISP hasnt had a day in December with a high temp lower than 42 degrees...so the forecast temperatures for early next week illustrate the changing pattern pretty well. This was never expected to be a turn on a dime type change. Hopefully by January the storm track is more favorable for us on the CP, but we have some chances before then as well and that also is a change from the last three weeks.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

It's still there but to our south.

lifted this off the New England thread just for you .

Wxrisk.com

‎***ALERT *** 12z wed A afternoon run of the European ensemble Model is WAAAAAY EAST of the 12z operational or regular European Model ( which has the Low near Chicago).

12z ECMWF ensemble mean Has 2ndary LOW off the southeast VA coast on morning of DEC 27 with the 0 degree ISOTHERM at 850 MB (rain snow line) ROA to DCA to RDG to ABE to POU to PVD... BOS mostly snow

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