Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[MJO812]

The latest forecast for the winter from the Jamstec model. Cold.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

[NEG NAO]

The latest forecast for the winter from the Jamstec model. Cold.

http://www.jamstec.g...orecast.html.en

that shows the entire country below normal - very unlikely

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

[Snowshack]

Wet christmas on the 12zgfs...i hope that system can trend further south as we get closer.

[ace0927]

The big system post-Christmas seems to be trending east on all models, so potentially a snow threat here. The blocking looked much stronger on the 0z ECM, and the 6z GFS runs a leading wave ahead of the main system, which depresses heights on the East Coast and sets up a much more favorable track. Very cold air after that system for sure with the -EPO developing.

where is any cold air on the 0Z Euro...nowhere to be found. I said 2 weeks ago to punt this month...from the looks of it, the longer range doesnt look much better.

That is a pathetic looking map for the end of December...pretty much globally.

[WintersGrasp]

Looks like if the Christmas small storm trends colder the next larger one will trend warmer and cut up the Great Lakes ? Seems to be how the models have been showing it....just switching them up run to run

[PB GFI]

Look at the GFS surface temps maps under that precip at hr 192 . - 850`s plus 5 or greater - surface at 30 - lower hudosn valley ,???

[IsentropicLift]

Major rains on the 12z GFS, this all falls in 60hrs. Ending at hr 192.

[NEG NAO]

Major rains on the 12z GFS, this all falls in 60hrs. Ending at hr 192.

have to wait till the ensembles come out - this solution is suspicious at best - should call this the fiscal cliff storm just like the talks going on down in DC- when things start looking better we take a step backwards with this run - notice how the storm is about to go into Canada ?? with the blocking still there ? weird

[NorEaster27]

nothing changes, blocking actually weakens and the -PNA shows no sings of easing. Its not going to snow in that pattern... its a rain->cold->rain pattern

12z GFS continues to show this pattern.

[MJO812]

12z GEFS pops a low on the coast. Warm but different than the op.

[PB GFI]

12z GEFS pops a low on the coast. Warm but different than the op.

Dude its a 50 degree rain storm , will you pls stop with a low pops off the coast . Its such a meaningless sidebar .

[PB GFI]

Step off the Ledge , next weeks system is 50 and rain , however after that , the heart of the cold is in Central and Eastern Canada ,

and not in Alaska . A subtle change but may help down the road .

[Snowshack]

Dude its a 50 degree rain storm , will you pls stop with a low pops off the coast . Its such a meaningless sidebar .

True...but we're talking 8 days out...the OP GFS has the low west of Buffalo at 192, while the GEFS has it right on the coast. Still plenty of time for this to trend favorably or not.

[SnoSki14]

Models are flopping around too much, I'm first focused on the christmas day low around Day 5, that looks kind of interesting. The run to run differences are pretty huge even up to Day 5, I think it's more likely the storm ends up further south under the block like it's been trending and I wouldn't discount some snow for Christmas.

[MJO812]

True...but we're talking 8 days out...the OP GFS has the low west of Buffalo at 192, while the GEFS has it right on the coast. Still plenty of time for this to trend favorably or not.

This post ftw. I don't know what his problem is but all I was trying to say is that the mean has a low on the coast.

[supermeh]

Step off the Ledge , next weeks system is 50 and rain , however after that , the heart of the cold is in Central and Eastern Canada ,

and not in Alaska . A subtle change but may help down the road .

That is amazing you can tell the exact temp and conditions 8 days out. I really wouldn't focus on this storm. it is going to change with every model run.

[PB GFI]

This post ftw. I don't know what his problem is but all I was trying to say is that the mean has a low on the coast.

Ant , If this cuts thru the Ohio Valley ENE and transfers early then kool . But " if " it gets to the lakes the surge of precip ahead of hit comes with all the warm air , so any secondary thats pops over us will take off with all the energy with it a most of the precip would be over .

I know JB and DT still believe this is cutting under , but until I see it modeled its just hard to buy , thats all bro

[PB GFI]

That is amazing you can tell the exact temp and conditions 8 days out. I really wouldn't focus on this storm. it is going to change with every model run.

Lets see plus 7 air at 850 , surface progged at 50 bet 172 - 186 , a sprawling system cuttting to the lakes ! your are right its this should be a 15 degrees with 2 inches QPF on a SE wind with blizzard.

When you look at the 12z GFS , what does the surface look like to you , or do you just ignore the model and " HOPE " this your christmas present .

And as far as changing - if you mean yesterdays center up over Wisc - this am west of buff and now back up over ILL , ask yourself are you seeing anything progged coming up east of the mtns ?

thats how you kinda come up with a warm scenerio . and until the models change - i dont just sit here , guess , hope and pray .

[MJO812]

Ant , If this cuts thru the Ohio Valley ENE and transfers early then kool . But " if " it gets to the lakes the surge of precip ahead of hit comes with all the warm air , so any secondary thats pops over us will take off with all the energy with it a most of the precip would be over .

I know JB and DT still believe this is cutting under , but until I see it modeled its just hard to buy , thats all bro

Good reasoning

[ace0927]

Dude its a 50 degree rain storm , will you pls stop with a low pops off the coast . Its such a meaningless sidebar .

THANK YOU.

for weeks, he has the same exact post about EVERY freaken model run. This pattern sucks no matter what the EC ensembles and GEFS say. There is NO COLD AIR anywhere near the US and if the EURO is to be trusted its not likely to be around anytime soon.

[forkyfork]

The ensemble mean looks colder because members with no storm at all skew it

[famartin]

Yes, technically a secondary will be popping over NYC on Friday morning too, but no one is saying anything about snow with that one anymore, either. A secondary is meaningless if there isn't any cold air left to tap.

[supermeh]

Lets see plus 7 air at 850 , surface progged at 50 bet 172 - 186 , a sprawling system cuttting to the lakes ! your are right its this should be a 15 degrees with 2 inches QPF on a SE wind with blizzard.

When you look at the 12z GFS , what does the surface look like to you , or do you just ignore the model and " HOPE " this your christmas present .

And as far as changing - if you mean yesterdays center up over Wisc - this am west of buff and now back up over ILL , ask yourself are you seeing anything progged coming up east of the mtns ?

thats how you kinda come up with a warm scenerio . and until the models change - i dont just sit here , guess , hope and pray .

I never said this should be a blizzard. I just wouldn't bank on any one solution 8 days out. All I am saying.

Also, you say ""hope" this your christmas present"...I never said the word "hope" anywhere and I am not hoping for this to be a blizzard as a christmas present.

[famartin]

I really wouldn't focus on this storm.

Period. No need to qualify this.

[MJO812]

Yes, technically a secondary will be popping over NYC on Friday morning too, but no one is saying anything about snow with that one anymore, either. A secondary is meaningless if there isn't any cold air left to tap.

No one is talking about Fridays storm anymore. That's going to be rain. People are already canceling the Christmas storm already which is premature at this moment.

[PB GFI]

I never said this should be a blizzard. I just wouldn't bank on any one solution 8 days out. All I am saying.

Also, you say ""hope" this your christmas present"...I never said the word "hope" anywhere and I am not hoping for this to be a blizzard as a christmas present.

I am just saying - until i see it modeled differntley thats what i am seeing .

I know there are METS who believe its not cutting . A. unless that first system xmas day can drag the trof to the coast and B whatever block is in canada nudges south , how can I deduce otherwise .

So maybe once xmas system comes thru , then mayb the models sniff a different route .

But I dont see that yet, thats all

blizzard comment - was me being a $%^&*

[famartin]

No one is talking about Fridays storm anymore. That's going to be rain. People are already canceling the Christmas storm already which is premature at this moment.

Yes, no one is talking about the Friday storm any more. Because the cold air moves out long before it gets there (in fact, I don't think it ever really moved in). Some cold will arrive behind that system but it appears to modify fairly quickly.

Is a bit of snow still possible with the Christmas storm? Yes. But I wouldn't bet on it.

[supermeh]

I am just saying - until i see it modeled differntley thats what i am seeing .

I know there are METS who believe its not cutting . A. unless that first system xmas day can drag the trof to the coast and B whatever block is in canada nudges south , how can I deduce otherwise .

So maybe once xmas system comes thru , then mayb the models sniff a different route .

But I dont see that yet, thats all

blizzard comment - was me being a $%^&*

No worries. Focus on the Christmas storm first. It will have down stream impacts on the next system. The energy may be too strong and closes off over the Plains for the 27th storm and we are screwed at that point.

[MJO812]

Watch out for that little storm before the main one on Christmas. Euro is coming in further south with it.

[BxEngine]

THANK YOU.

for weeks, he has the same exact post about EVERY freaken model run.