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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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snywx

snywx

Posted
Posted

Forecast from Upton is quite snowy for next week. :)

  • A chance of rain and snow between 9pm and 3am, then a chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

  • Sunday

    A chance of snow and freezing rain before noon, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


  • Sunday Night

    A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


  • Monday

    A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


  • Monday Night

    A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


  • Tuesday

    A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


  • Tuesday Night

    A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


  • Wednesday

    A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted

Boxing Day redux ? :)

We are long overdue for a snowstorm greater then 6 inches on the dates 12/24 into 12/25 - that would be the most desirable dates - and I am sure many would wait till then if it was guaranteed....but next weeks storm on the 18 - 20 is mainly liquid except far north and west and maybe a the end here could mix with or end as snow - the period 12/23 - 12/27 should be looked at closely now.....

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

We are long overdue for a snowstorm greater then 6 inches on the dates 12/24 into 12/25 - that would be the most desirable dates - and I am sure many would wait till then if it was guaranteed....but next weeks storm on the 18 - 20 is mainly liquid except far north and west and maybe a the end here could mix with or end as snow - the period 12/23 - 12/27 should be looked at closely now.....

you have to go back to 1966 for a snowstorm on Christmas Eve...I'll take the first snowfall around then...

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Guest Pamela

Guest Pamela

Posted
Posted

Winter has been absent for about 22 months / February 2011 so I'm anxious to see something pleasantly surprising. Worst recent stretch would be March 1987 - February 1993 / about 71 months. There was a nice local storm on 12/13/88 though...and also one in 1/1988...the good one in November 1989...the Norlun event out east in 2/1990...and a couple minor things thereafter. But essentially, February 1993 marked winter's first appearance in six years.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Please wake me up when this is over, I really hate watching carnage in slow motion. So a snowless DEC is on the table. How close are we to a top 10 warmest DEC ? Is that on the table ?

I will not even pretend to knw now where this pattern is going. I will tell you from watching weather , pattern changes take a long time to evolve and we are no where near any type of transition phase

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

Yes. But the GEFS still has higher heights across the AK region. And maintains a cross-polar longer than Euro ensemble mean. A system will break away from the NE Pacific trough, sometime between 25-27th. If we still have the cross-polar flow and the west-based -NAO in place, we can see snow.

First it was the 18 th. then oh wait it's the 21 st. No no. Wait. It's Xmas eve. Wait it's really dec 27. Do yourself a favor so you don't get disappointed , dont look past day 4 on the models as you get closer u see the models saying 1 Any energy that comes out will cut. 2 nothing is breaking away from the western trof. If anything the models are showing you that the trof axis gets pulled back over and over and over again. Look mayb I'm just getting cranky at this age , but be very cautious when the models keep moving the goal post. All these fantasy snowstorms look nice when you toggle thru an app but that's where it's gona stay

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rcad1

rcad1

Posted
Posted

Can anyone see last year pooping up in there mind when seeing that now the euri is backing off the change listen I hope too god I'm wrong and I look like a total ass for saying this but im sorry your lying if you say you haven't thought about last Winter when seeing everything always being ten days out again so far this winter

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

First it was the 18 th. then oh wait it's the 21 st. No no. Wait. It's Xmas eve. Wait it's really dec 27. Do yourself a favor so you don't get disappointed , dont look past day 4 on the models as you get closer u see the models saying 1 Any energy that comes out will cut. 2 nothing is breaking away from the western trof. If anything the models are showing you that the trof axis gets pulled back over and over and over again. Look mayb I'm just getting

cranky at this age , but be very cautious when the models keep moving the goal post. All these fantasy snowstorms look nice when you toggle thru an app but that's where it's gona stay

I think Weathergun knows this. He's not a weenie at all. He is a realist.

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