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**BANTER THREAD** Rolling into active period...wintry potential increasing, so are toaster sales

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

I am not sure what to say, lol. I haven't really been confident in December and have leaned warmer than most so it means a lot that I'm still someone's "rock." haha.. Look, we get the cold introduced into the pattern just in time for the holidays and then it will be a matter of flow. I really don't trust this block to do what we normally think they would do and it may actually be taken down to almost useless by the time the real deal cold gets involved. But either way, be careful of any modeled solutions that seem beefed up beyond day 7. It seems like every time this is projected to happen the models go..."whoops, there's another s/w coming from the Pacific." We could get a better gradient pattern though if we get a solid, fresh shot of Arctic Air and the SE ridge tries to come back.

So I wouldn't call the future horrible or snowless. If anything, things are going to continue to improve week by week, as not only climo would dictate but also the teleconnections and analogs. Stay tough friend!

Oh and I'm, like everyone else, downright saddened by the shooting. Miserable... sickening... etc.

lol it really is bootleg as you put it. its connecting in different ways across canada with different random shortwaves navigating within and around it, portrayed differently on each model run...no means to keep a 50/50 low around. Its chaos out there. just look at todays operational runs, they started looking awesome when they were cutting off that ULL in the pacific and allowing a great +PNA spike connecting over the top to alaska in the 6-10 day, and you figure positive height anomalies in davis straight we are looking great...but no, they cut the low up into the great lakes because of how the block was oriented in eastern canada/maritimes. At least its in good agreement that my birthday through christmas day will time nicely with our first reasonable cold shot in a while, as non-arctic as it ultimately shall be.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I am not sure what to say, lol. I haven't really been confident in December and have leaned warmer than most so it means a lot that I'm still someone's "rock." haha.. Look, we get the cold introduced into the pattern just in time for the holidays and then it will be a matter of flow. I really don't trust this block to do what we normally think they would do and it may actually be taken down to almost useless by the time the real deal cold gets involved. But either way, be careful of any modeled solutions that seem beefed up beyond day 7. It seems like every time this is projected to happen the models go..."whoops, there's another s/w coming from the Pacific." We could get a better gradient pattern though if we get a solid, fresh shot of Arctic Air and the SE ridge tries to come back.

So I wouldn't call the future horrible or snowless. If anything, things are going to continue to improve week by week, as not only climo would dictate but also the teleconnections and analogs. Stay tough friend!

Oh and I'm, like everyone else, downright saddened by the shooting. Miserable... sickening... etc.

I enjoy your posts. I just didn't see/missed the transition from hopeful to more pessimistic in the jumble of threads and was hoping that maybe I was missing something in my own look at the models. It's like you said I have hopes now for next weekend but are we going to end up with another muddled solution as we approach day 4 with a primary in the lakes and no real surface reflection in time? AKA a repeat...we'll see. Anyway thanks
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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Another day above normal. Hit 50F. Low of 20F.

Beat goes on Bob, stale dank nastiness

bos+5

bdl+4 (50)

pvd +2

orh +6

boring begets boring, seems like its either been the extreme or boredom the last 2 years, how about a simple clipper that drops 2-4.............do clippers even exist anymore, I love clippers!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Beat goes on Bob, stale dank nastiness

bos+5

bdl+4 (50)

pvd +2

orh +6

boring begets boring, seems like its either been the extreme or boredom the last 2 years, how about a simple clipper that drops 2-4.............do clippers even exist anymore, I love clippers!

That's pretty funny ... :) yeah, there's some truth to that... last year's plaguing bad Pac invasion and utterly 0 polar field incursions left us without a flow pretty much at any time conducive to a clip. That's so far true this year, as well - though perhaps for other reasons (maybe even bad f luck).

Clippers can be good and not just for 2-4 type deals; they can hit the Jersey coast and explode sometimes, too.

Btw, I mentioned shortly after Sandy that we may deal with a long while of relative quiescence -

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

That's pretty funny ... :) yeah, there's some truth to that... last year's plaguing bad Pac invasion and utterly 0 polar field incursions left us without a flow pretty much at any time conducive to a clip. That's so far true this year, as well - though perhaps for other reasons (maybe even bad f luck).

Clippers can be good and not just for 2-4 type deals; they can hit the Jersey coast and explode sometimes, too.

Btw, I mentioned shortly after Sandy that we may deal with a long while of relative quiescence -

It seems over the last 5 years in fact there has been a lack of clippers, and of course who does not love them going boom east of acy and watching radar returns blossom out of nowhere!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

It seems over the last 5 years in fact there has been a lack of clippers, and of course who does not love them going boom east of acy and watching radar returns blossom out of nowhere!

Last year through now, have not been a clipper pattern. 2010/2011 was almost a miller B fest, with clipper like disturbances blowing up offshore.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

stuck at 32, not sure why it's not dropping faster. Dead calm wind and not a cloud in the sky. Don't think we'll hit the predicted low of 24f tonight.

You only have to drop another 8F over the next 12 hours and you're not sure if you'll hit your forecast low? ;)

Dude its 36F up here with flurries (front moving through I think) and our forecast low is 13-16F. H85 temps plummet later on NW winds with CAA so I'm sure it'll be significantly colder when I wake up.

1,500ft at the base of the mountain is 34F right now and tomorrow's high temp is 23F so we'll be seeing some CAA overnight.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Sunday River up to 47 trails regardless. They've built a good base. I guess the name of the game is blow snow when you can. I've lost confidence in the post Xmas pattern give or take. Ski country should still be fine but I'm not sure we see much snow in December beyond the 22nd event/non event

SR is king of man-made. What would you say you average per winter? 40"?

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ChrisM

ChrisM

Posted
Posted

You only have to drop another 8F over the next 12 hours and you're not sure if you'll hit your forecast low? ;)

Dude its 36F up here with flurries (front moving through I think) and our forecast low is 13-16F. H85 temps plummet later on NW winds with CAA so I'm sure it'll be significantly colder when I wake up.

1,500ft at the base of the mountain is 34F right now and tomorrow's high temp is 23F so we'll be seeing some CAA overnight.

Clouds are supposed to move in here

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