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**BANTER THREAD** Rolling into active period...wintry potential increasing, so are toaster sales

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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mattb65

mattb65

Posted
Posted

Yep forecast is sunny and 49 +7 or so on the high, we have no idea what cold is anymore, imagine if we got 3 or 4 days of -17 departures lol people crying for there mommas

I'm not so good with math, can you help me out and calculate the daily departure for Fairfield on a 49/24 day?

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
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I'm not so good with math, can you help me out and calculate the daily departure for Fairfield on a 49/24 day?

No idea but like I said yesterday, not a single below normal departure yesterday in the big 4 bos 0 orh +5 pvd and bdl in between, even when its cold its above normal.

Hopefully we can crack 50 today!

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

We made it through november just fine. A few days in a row of - double digit departures that month

LOL

Your coldest high at ewr in November was 40 degrees lol. Would be a little different in the heart of winter with three days of -17 departures. wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted

We made it through november just fine. A few days in a row of - double digit departures that month

To his point though, we've had two days of -17 cold in the last three years (none this year), and 13 such days going the other way. It's so lopsided at this point it's no longer funny. We've had one cold month in the last two years. One. That means you can bet warm and be right 96% of the time.

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easternsnowman

easternsnowman

Posted
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To his point though, we've had two days of -17 cold in the last three years (none this year), and 13 such days going the other way. It's so lopsided at this point it's no longer funny. We've had one cold month in the last two years. One. That means you can bet warm and be right 96% of the time.

I'm glad you pointed that out...my exact feelings also. We have gotten to the point where 2 or 3 above normal is now the new normal.

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

To his point though, we've had two days of -17 cold in the last three years (none this year), and 13 such days going the other way. It's so lopsided at this point it's no longer funny. We've had one cold month in the last two years. One. That means you can bet warm and be right 96% of the time.

Although two of those three years have brought me record snow. Even bdr had its snowiest november on record. Its been warm, we understand that. For every cold stat in the past 3 years, it can be top with four warm stats. When he beats it to the point of nause, it gets old.

A torch is not +1 for a daily departure. He seems to confuse that alot

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
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Although two of those three years have brought me record snow. Even bdr had its snowiest november on record. Its been warm, we understand that. For every cold stat in the past 3 years, it can be top with four warm stats. When he beats it to the point of nause, it gets old.

A torch is not +1 for a daily departure. He seems to confuse that alot

You seem to confuse what I say a lot Tim, my point was it would be nice to see some serious cold departures in WINTER, hopefully that happens this year. I like talking about current weather Tim, just so happens its been pretty darn warm the last two years, if that bugs you put me on ignore, last time I checked this was a WEATHERBOARD, not a fantasy lets ignore reality board.

Hopefully it snow soon, and by the way ewr is over +5 for the month, yeah I would say this month has been a torch, no confusing or misunderstanding that at all!

have a great day, should be a beauty.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

Man I was busy today. Looks like I missed a lot of action.

The stratospheric forecasts from late Dec into Jan are awesome. It seems like the Asia-North Pacific sector will not allow the polar vortex to get comfortable, knocking it off course every 10 days or so and causing a PV displacement.

Very NOT 2011-12 like...

All models show very impressive warming in that sector..the euro ensembles, canadian ensembles (yeah i know its the canadian) and the gfs op are all attacking the pole with pos temp anomalies at 10mb in the 11-15 day. Do we need the EP-flux vectors to turn more favorable for this to propogate down to the lower strat? or does it not matter as much this year given what weve seen out of the troposphere already?

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

To his point though, we've had two days of -17 cold in the last three years (none this year), and 13 such days going the other way. It's so lopsided at this point it's no longer funny. We've had one cold month in the last two years. One. That means you can bet warm and be right 96% of the time.

I'm glad you pointed that out...my exact feelings also. We have gotten to the point where 2 or 3 above normal is now the new normal.

Do you have a firehouse siren that goes off in your house alerting you whenever someone posts, "Warmth is the new normal"? Like a ghost appearing out of thin air.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

All models show very impressive warming in that sector..the euro ensembles, canadian ensembles (yeah i know its the canadian) and the gfs op are all attacking the pole with pos temp anomalies at 10mb in the 11-15 day. Do we need the EP-flux vectors to turn more favorable for this to propogate down to the lower strat? or does it not matter as much this year given what weve seen out of the troposphere already?

Some of the raw temperature data at 10mb over Siberia is absolute insanity in the 11-15 day. Some of the GFS suite has been taking temperatures up to the 55-60°F range at 10mb!!

The EP vectors are ALWAYS important and especially true for wave 1 disturbances in the mid stratosphere. We need to get these EP vectors poleward facing, otherwise the vortex is just one giant "spinning top" that periodically gets displaced off the NP.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

Some of the raw temperature data at 10mb over Siberia is absolute insanity in the 11-15 day. Some of the GFS suite has been taking temperatures up to the 55-60°F range at 10mb!!

The EP vectors are ALWAYS important and especially true for wave 1 disturbances in the mid stratosphere. We need to get these EP vectors poleward facing, otherwise the vortex is just one giant "spinning top" that periodically gets displaced off the NP.

Nice visual analogy there. Hope we get those pointing in the right direction by the end of the month

I saw the 0c line pop up on those gfs 10mb panels over Siberia, and I thought to myself, "that doesn't look very normal" lol.

Do we more or less have the "spinning top" displacements going on recently with the vortex kind of swinging across from the atlantic across to asia, not exactly sitting on the pole, along side the continued asian/canadian warming influences?

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Nice visual analogy there. Hope we get those pointing in the right direction by the end of the month

I saw the 0c line pop up on those gfs 10mb panels over Siberia, and I thought to myself, "that doesn't look very normal" lol.

Do we more or less have the "spinning top" displacements going on recently with the vortex kind of swinging across from the atlantic across to asia, not exactly sitting on the pole, along side the continued asian/canadian warming influences?

Latest GFS forecasts were colder but one of them yesterday was going way above 0c at 10mb. But yeah, that's some serious warming being modeled on the GFS and likely probable given the snow cover, Hadley Cell and solar/QBO.

Initially, we did get a wave 2 type of configuration which is why the EP vectors were not as important but they have had a poleward average to them. But now and the future will have a displaced spinning top type of thing going. It is interesting because if you take that PV, displace it and the jet begins mixing in the warmer air, it can be its own worst enemy.

So while you have the N PAC-Asian Wave 1 force acting to take jabs at it (and a possible knock out in January) with wave refraction currently more poleward directed, the night jet being displaced also is able to produce mixing / transport on the surf zone. This mixing and mountain upwelling from below is why the temperatures become sooo warm. The night jet will advect it around. At some point, these two forces will kill the vortex.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Everything right now is "bogus" if you think abou it. Do we have anything true? The MJO signal is bogus, the west based -NAO is really bogus and the modeling has been bogus. I'm still expecting my rainfall over the next 10 days and I'm not so sold on a cold finish; although, I can still support a gradient pattern.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Everything right now is "bogus" if you think abou it. Do we have anything true? The MJO signal is bogus, the west based -NAO is really bogus and the modeling has been bogus. I'm still expecting my rainfall over the next 10 days and I'm not so sold on a cold finish; although, I can still support a gradient pattern.

Yea, and the gradient is 10 miles to my north :lol:

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HM

HM

Posted
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Yea, and the gradient is 10 miles to my north :lol:

Glad to have you on team HM.

I think a few good cold shots are certainly in order before the end of 2012 but I don't think they stick around. They may help to get that blasted gradient south though.

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