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**BANTER THREAD** Rolling into active period...wintry potential increasing, so are toaster sales

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Sorry guys for the meltdown. I've probably had less sleep than CoastalWx this week and last night was especially bad so you could say my fuse is short. That was unprofessional of me though so I apologize for jumping on a few people. In the end it isn't that big of a deal...when you're unconscious sometimes you aren't yourself. Randy didn't know we were trying to keep the threads separate either so no harm no foul. Maybe the pattern got to me. lol

Enjoy the snow, your pattern is about to get pretty damn good up there.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Sorry guys for the meltdown. I've probably had less sleep than CoastalWx this week and last night was especially bad so you could say my fuse is short. That was unprofessional of me though so I apologize for jumping on a few people. In the end it isn't that big of a deal...when you're unconscious sometimes you aren't yourself. Randy didn't know we were trying to keep the threads separate either so no harm no foul. Maybe the pattern got to me. lol

You didn't need to apologize we all have our moments and you guys are trying to do the right thing.

is the call of 5-7 days of continuous snow looking good still?

If you shake a snowglobe I can see that happening. 204 hours of pure excitement although the Euro may be setting up something good just beyond that...yay.

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radarman

radarman

Posted
Posted

Today is the 5 year anniversary of the some of the worst traffic in New England history. Dec. 13th 2007 snow. Came in like a wall shortly before rush hour.... Panicked, unprepared drivers clogged up the treacherous streets.

I remember a great presentation about this at one of the SNE weather conferences, see if I can dig it up. What a mess that was.

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
Posted

Today is the 5 year anniversary of the some of the worst traffic in New England history. Dec. 13th 2007 snow. Came in like a wall shortly before rush hour.... Panicked, unprepared drivers clogged up the treacherous streets.

I remember a great presentation about this at one of the SNE weather conferences, see if I can dig it up. What a mess that was.

I remember that, I had family getting home hours late from work, all from traffic. Ridiculous.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

by sunday there's a 50/50 shot he will be lock'd in his bathtub w toaster. Till then I hope it trends cooler as well at all levels. I just wonder if it takes to sat pm runs to sort out when the pulses of qpf arrive and , if temps will make this a nowcast situ

I hope all you guys get snow.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

by sunday there's a 50/50 shot he will be lock'd in his bathtub w toaster. Till then I hope it trends cooler as well at all levels. I just wonder if it takes to sat pm runs to sort out when the pulses of qpf arrive and , if temps will make this a nowcast situ

naked rocking back and forth murmuring "forkyfork, forkyfork, forkyfork"

SUN INTO MON...

AN OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT APPEARS LIKELY ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY

ACROSS NORTHERN MA INTO S NH. THE COLUMN WILL INITIALLY BE COLD

ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS SNOW EVEN ALONG THE COAST...EXCEPT

PERHAPS FOR THE ISLANDS WHERE PRECIP WILL PROBABLY BEGIN AS RAIN.

HOWEVER...ELY BL WIND WILL WARM THE LOW LEVELS WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN

IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR

MIXED PRECIP NOT OCCURRING TIL SUN EVENING ACROSS N MA INTO S NH.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LIES WITH WHEN THE HEAVIER QPF WILL

FALL...SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ECMWF PLACES MORE EMPHASIS ON MONDAY WAVE

WITH HEAVIER QPF DURING THIS TIME. NAM/GFS HAVE HEAVIER QPF DURING

SUNDAY WHILE GFS MOVES THE WAVE OUT BY MONDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY

CONDITIONS. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON POTENTIAL SNOWFALL

AMOUNTS AS ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST ONLY MINOR ACCUM SUNDAY WITH HEAVIER

QPF FALLING MOSTLY AS RAIN DURING MONDAY AS ENOUGH WARMING OCCURS

EVEN IN THE INTERIOR. GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM WOULD HAVE THE

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES ON SUNDAY ACROSS N MA AND S NH WITH

MINOR ACCUMS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN FACT...BOTH NAM/GFS SUGGEST

BANDING POTENTIAL OVER N MA AND S NH SUN AFTERNOON. BUT OF COURSE

WE CANT DISCOUNT THE ECMWF SO WE NEED TO TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE

APPROACH FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT. THE POTENTIAL

EXISTS FOR ADVSY SNOWFALL FOR N MA AND S NH BUT THERE IS A LOT OF

UNCERTAINTY SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

Man I was busy today. Looks like I missed a lot of action.

The stratospheric forecasts from late Dec into Jan are awesome. It seems like the Asia-North Pacific sector will not allow the polar vortex to get comfortable, knocking it off course every 10 days or so and causing a PV displacement.

Very NOT 2011-12 like...

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Man I was busy today. Looks like I missed a lot of action.

The stratospheric forecasts from late Dec into Jan are awesome. It seems like the Asia-North Pacific sector will not allow the polar vortex to get comfortable, knocking it off course every 10 days or so and causing a PV displacement.

Very NOT 2011-12 like...

How accurate is it to roll forward analog dates up to three weeks? I was messing around with the last 50 dates shown on the D+8-11 progs and every one pointed towards a very west based block with a very cold wintry east coast even had a 2-3 day thaw period before reload.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

With the MJO going into phase 1 and the 5-7 day lag for MJO induced waves to traverse the eastern US it would set us up for a wave to arrive in the east between Dec. 18-20 which is progged on the 180hr GFS and Euro moving across the upper Midwest or Great Lakes. The same wave also ushers in relatively "colder" air and plays nicely into the idea I spoke of the other day in my post about the pocket of relatively "colder" air arriving during the Dec. 21-23 time frame based off of GWO analogs for the eastern US.Using that same concept for the GWO I expect another batch of colder air Dec. 27-30. And Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3. 

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

I feel like this is the first time I've been optimistic about a weather pattern in quite some time

you weren't optomistic when blizz was calling for days and days and feet and feet yesterday

all joking aside the period from 12/20 into the new year looks solid for winter in the Cplain. that is exciting news for the wx board. we just have to survive the days and days of (likely mostly rain) first

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