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**BANTER THREAD** Rolling into active period...wintry potential increasing, so are toaster sales

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Gefs look good after about 156 hours. Little warm prior

I like that little 99? nuke it has at 144hrs. If that can manage to lay down a half a foot, you get exertion from the N operating over snow pack boundary layer - that's a transitive variable for the following main player.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I like that little 99? nuke it has at 144hrs. If that can manage to lay down a half a foot, you get exertion from the N operating over snow pack boundary layer - that's a transitive variable for the following main player.

Many different solutions so far. We will see. Odds on the euro jumping around from its earlier run are pretty good

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Many different solutions so far. We will see. Odds on the euro jumping around from its earlier run are pretty good

Not as much so as the other guidance types, though. We are not in the Euro's bow-down wheel house yet, but, since these waves are coming off the Pac on a low angle trajectory, even the Euro is susceptible to modeling black out - with the GFS, that's that period of time where it loses the system, only to bring it back around 96 hours or so.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Not as much so as the other guidance types, though. We are not in the Euro's bow-down wheel house yet, but, since these waves are coming off the Pac on a low angle trajectory, even the Euro is susceptible to modeling black out - with the GFS, that's that period of time where it loses the system, only to bring it back around 96 hours or so.

I'd like to see the euro stay cool for storm 1. Not loving the idea personally of "days and days" of cold non snow as we wait for an eventual changeover.

Ensembles are probably the way to go at this range. ? Is which ones.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

Posted
Posted

Looking at the GWO it appears we should see a shots of "relatively" colder air making its way across the Midwest or Northeast between Dec. 21-23 and then another Dec. 27-30. Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3 moving over the Midwest and/or NE (maybe coldest air of season so far based on magnitude of temp spike). All just theory on GWO and strat temps but it looks like end of dec. should be good and chilly if theory pans out.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Yes where to post? The GGEM agrees with CT Kev. Days and days of snow. There would be some 20" or 30" 4 day totals with that depiction (outside the mountains).

The CMC says everybody outside of Maine gets in on it.

The GFS says nobody outside of Maine gets in on it.

What to believe?

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

I really like the BOX forecast for mby. Tough to get POP's this high so far in advance--even if it ends up coming in wetter than white.

Sunday: Snow likely. Cold with highs in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Sunday Night And Monday: Snow and sleet likely. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

Monday Night: Snow likely. Near steady temperature around 30. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Tuesday: Cloudy with a chance of snow and rain. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Near steady temperature around 30.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Near steady temperature in the upper 20s.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

Fantastic stretch of weather down here over the next three days, sunny and 45-50...........the torch rolls on, and on, and on.

We've moved from a severe torch to seasonable. Don't really see any serious cold anywhere next week or so...maybe a bit below climo-steps in the right direction at least....

-

nice to see some frost last 2 mornings too. You know it's been bad when a below freezing morning gets me excited.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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Normal for most yesterday and today. Above tomorrow then seems normal or possibly below/above depending on storm track. Certainly not torch going on and on like you claimed.

Its been a torch for 23 months, not really sure what you are talking about, I look at the big picture, I see no below normal days for any length of time on the horizon. Where is the cold?

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Meltdowns are going to be some of the best ever.

Why? No one on the coast should be expecting anything except a change back to snow after rain. From the get go this has been an interior threat. You and Messenger make things up as you go along. Its getting a little old the constant demeaning of what are some pretty intelligent folks who dominate these threads. 99% of the folks who post here are level headed and have a great grasp on current and future weather systems. Most are seasoned veterans of this board. You mistake tongue and cheek and model interpretation as expectation.

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