wncsnow Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa....iew_12Dec10.pdf I remember this event well,there were no WWA much less WSW for the mountains and foothills of WNC, which was not surprising considering getting snow out of frontal band moisture is pretty much unheard of in these parts. The night before the event, the sky remained relatively clear and allowed the temperature and dewpoint to drop enough to allow for optimal evaporative cooling. Anyways its a great read, and gives you hope that you dont always have to get a perfect setup for snow in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Don't forget this one in MS and AL: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/misc/971214.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 12, 2012 Share Posted December 12, 2012 Ah yes, I remember well. 32 and rain for Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The storm was my introduction to Roberts forecasting prowess. He called that one right on when the NWS forecast was for rain. Here are some of his posts from that thread. Posted 11 December 2010 - 07:58 AM 06z NAM run came in colder for western NC. Right now Asheville's wetbulb is 27, Boone's is 24. I know they're going to rise today, but theres always been shown a cold pocket aloft , as well as surface, remaining there. Still think the prefrontal precip somewhere in there will be mostly snow, several quick inches. Posted 11 December 2010 - 08:34 AM I was thinking of one before the upslope starts. Somewhere in the mountains, maybe most of them in w. NC, will get snow ahead of the cold front, as well as behind. I'm waiting to see the 12z Posted 11 December 2010 - 09:35 AM "You still think so, huh? GSP is definitely not on board with that scenario and has mentioned (as have other offices) that the cold GFS is an outlier. From my experience, the warm nose is almost always underestimated in the mountains, so I think the frontal precip will be rain changing to snow. Sure would be nice to see all snow, though. Here's the million dollar question. If the NAM has been trending colder towards the GFS, then that may change everything!" Well I never committed, but have been watching this possibility for about 3 days now, and just always like to keep options open and watch/mention the possibility. Its hard to say who and where. Also, the same fears about the warm nose I definitely recall from about this time last year, not sure if it was you, but I do remember on the big Dec 18 event the same worries there. I'm not a forecaster who goes explicitly by soundings verbatim but always look at the big picture. The *possibility* is there, but not definite. I'll be honest, most of the 4" + snow events in Western NC aren't forecast ahead of time. I've lived and watched the wx here all my life, and know that to be true. Just because GSP is not on board doesn't preclude snow around here. That said, I haven't even begun to look at any 12z stuff yet, and will probably eat all these words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Bump for the upcoming event on Tuesday for the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 These little event coming up does seem similar to this one... although (it appears) there wont be a weak low off the SE coast providing INSITU CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 These little event coming up does seem similar to this one... although (it appears) there wont be a weak low off the SE coast providing INSITU CAD.I don't think that cad played much of a role in that. We stayed all frozen over here along with everyone else west of Asheville. Cad does not make it over here. Seems that it. Was all because of the low dew points and the main low being so far away. Would like to hesr Roberts thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I don't think that cad played much of a role in that. We stayed all frozen over here along with everyone else west of Asheville. Cad does not make it over here. Seems that it. Was all because of the low dew points and the main low being so far away. Would like to hesr Roberts thoughts. Wasn't that the one that Robert said would be snow for the mountains while everyone else was calling for rain? (correct me if I am wrong). He ended up being right while all other forecasts busted badly. Those gutsy calls that he makes is why he is one of the best around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 The case study mentions the low off of South Carolina help pulling NE flow in (INSITU CAD) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Wasn't that the one that Robert said would be snow for the mountains while everyone else was calling for rain? (correct me if I am wrong). He ended up being right while all other forecasts busted badly. Those gutsy calls that he makes is why he is one of the best around.sure was. No watches,warnings, or anadvisory. I think this is a great analog for the system tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The case study mentions the low off of South Carolina help pulling NE flow in (INSITU CAD)from what I read that did not help at all. Besides, it was all snow west of the divide and cad does not happen over here. Also hickory had rain, and they do well in cad situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Great read guys! Ya Robert is a great forecaster. I always lover hearing his analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 from what I read that did not help at all. Besides, it was all snow west of the divide and cad does not happen over here. Also hickory had rain, and they do well in cad situations. Areas east of the Blue Ridge did fairly well also here in Marion we recieved 3 inches despite being 1250 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.