nzucker Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 12z GFS has a large Nor'easter around Christmas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 as of yesterday NYC is averaging 45.2...Today could drop it to 45.1...The second half has to average 35.0 which is near average to end up as a top 20 warmest out ofb 145 years of record...It will have to get as cold as 1980's second half to get below average...I don't see that happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 as of yesterday NYC is averaging 45.2...Today could drop it to 45.1...The second half has to average 35.0 which is near average to end up as a top 20 warmest out ofb 145 years of record...It will have to get as cold as 1980's second half to get below average...I don't see that happening... December is averaging 2F warmer than November finished at this point. Incredible turn-around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Interesting that the GFS now brings in a classic west based block that actually blocks in colder air around christmas. Great setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The 12z GFS today, would have you believe that these crappy systems next week, will potentially setup something bigger near Christmas. More west to east oriented -NAO over the Davis Strait and 50/50 low over SE Canada. Ridge over Western Canada too: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 even during the warm December of 1998 we saw a white Christmas...It could still happen this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Euro brings in low to mid 50s by tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I hate to sound like a broken record but i have been banging this drum about the lack of cold air due to the strong pac jet and displaced PV. If the psuedo NAO block isnt as strong and west based as was modeled, its a torch pattern. Even with the block, a storm passing south of the area does not equal snow with all of Canada basically torched (relative to the means) As I feared, the NAO block doesnt look strong enough nor west enough to push the storm track south or over the area. The end result is a torch all of this week, maybe some hope closer to xmas but like I warned last week, I would not put any trust in the models trying to flip this pattern. We need to displace the vortex and low heights over AK with ridging to get any sort of change going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 As I feared, the NAO block doesnt look strong enough nor west enough to push the storm track south or over the area. The end result is a torch all of this week, maybe some hope closer to xmas but like I warned last week, I would not put any trust in the models trying to flip this pattern. We need to displace the vortex and low heights over AK with ridging to get any sort of change going. You will turn cold starting fri sat. The key will b for how long. Canadian and euro r cold. Will need higher heights in alaska i agree I just thnk its gona b hard to achieve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 As I feared, the NAO block doesnt look strong enough nor west enough to push the storm track south or over the area. The end result is a torch all of this week, maybe some hope closer to xmas but like I warned last week, I would not put any trust in the models trying to flip this pattern. We need to displace the vortex and low heights over AK with ridging to get any sort of change going. Agree. However after the failed miller B, the euro looks fantastic for a very cold and perhaps snowy christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Prob is nothing looks like the pattern is going to flip and stay like that. Like other people are saying it might turn cold and then 10 days later we're in trouble again... Again I might be reacting fast but last winter has to come to mind..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Agree. However after the failed miller B, the euro looks fantastic for a very cold and perhaps snowy christmas GFS and Euro look great after next Friday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Prob is nothing looks like the pattern is going to flip and stay like that. Like other people are saying it might turn cold and then 10 days later we're in trouble again... Again I might be reacting fast but last winter has to come to mind..... We're again seeing how relatively bad neutral ENSOs are, regardless of the NAO/AO when the Pacific pattern is bad. If we can hold the AO/NAO we'll be alright for Jan/Feb/Mar, if we don't however we'll likely see this be similar to 96-97 or 99-00 where we get that nasty 2 week period where it gets cold and then it goes warm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 That's exactly what I'm afraid is going to happen snowgoose. Really going to suck if it does. Like I said I hope I'm wrong and look like the biggest ass for jumping too quick...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 That's exactly what I'm afraid is going to happen snowgoose. Really going to suck if it does. Like I said I hope I'm wrong and look like the biggest ass for jumping too quick...... I wouldn't worry just yet. Now I will start to worry if this same pattern continues into January. Indications are that it will not continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I'm at the point where I'm weary of how the Pacific looks... how the Atlantic looks...how your bathtub looks...maybe just listen to 1010 WINS radio like the old days...a far simpler time. In fairness, all these indices and such are indicative of advances in the science of weather forecasting and *do* aid us immeasuably in putting out a forecast. The problem is that one, the complete and absolute impact of all these factors, both individually and collectively, is not yet fully understood, (or cannot fully be calibrated) and two, weather is simply not an exact science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 2003 - 2006 was great until 2008 through Jan 2011 came and these were spectacular. We're spoiled folks. Last winter and this are really not that different than 1989 - 1992 and 1997 - 1999. Craptackular. We may be due for another muti year period of crap. Let's hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 2003 - 2006 was great until 2008 through Jan 2011 came and these were spectacular. We're spoiled folks. Last winter and this are really not that different than 1989 - 1992 and 1997 - 1999. Craptackular. We may be due for another muti year period of crap. Let's hope not. In 2010, our area didn't see snow until 12/26. I'm not worried yet. It's not even winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The tide of cold won't be turned now, it just won't. This December will be average at best, probably warm. However, as we all know, all it takes is one big storm for "snowy" to verify. And this is one thing we sometimes forget...this whole area is, generally speaking, not a particularly good area for snow from a climatological standpoint. Even if we say the average is near 30 inches or so...there were several years when, even though the mean was achieved...an exceptionally high percentage of the snowfall budget was wrapped up in a single storm, a la 1982-83 or 2005-06. So even in winters that appeared "normal" snow wise, snow fans endured endless weeks of weeping...and wailing...and gnashing of teeth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 But by Dec 1st 2010, it was cold and the pacific looked much better. It was just a matter of time before we jack potted. This December not even close. I'm just glad many of us had our Dec in Nov. One thing good is nothing was even remotely modeled last Dec for snow. At least we have 10 day GFS fantasy storms for Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 This Miller B is not going to work out because the "block" is connected with the ridge out ahead of the shortwave. That's not going to keep anything suppressed. The best blocks have a strong negative anomaly beneath them, which creates a sustained area of confluence and cold, and we don't have that here. Plus, the Pacific pattern is still in transition. After that storm becomes a stalled out ULL, we can hope that negative anomaly stays underneath the block while the Pacific improves, setting the table for a threat around Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The Pacific improves greatly after the Dec 21-22 storm. There is a cutoff ridge that moves into Alaska and lots of cold air is funneled into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS show back to back snowstorms. One on the 23 and the other one on the 26th. The 26th is a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS show back to back snowstorms. One on the 23 and the other one on the 26th. The 26th is a monster. The first one is on the 24th, but yes. It's fun to see what can result when a block is actually locking in a cold, confluence zone, combined with an improved Pacific pattern. Energy can drop down the ridging in western Canada and shoot down the pipeline so to speak leading to plenty of snow chances. Hopefully the models are right how the pattern evolves post Dec 21-22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS show back to back snowstorms. One on the 23 and the other one on the 26th. The 26th is a monster. I swear the sec I saw the 18z GFS u came immediately to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 This Miller B is not going to work out because the "block" is connected with the ridge out ahead of the shortwave. That's not going to keep anything suppressed. The best blocks have a strong negative anomaly beneath them, which creates a sustained area of confluence and cold, and we don't have that here. Plus, the Pacific pattern is still in transition. After that storm becomes a stalled out ULL, we can hope that negative anomaly stays underneath the block while the Pacific improves, setting the table for a threat around Christmas. Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised to see an energy transfer but if it occurs, it will be too far N/W for our area to benefit. Maybe NNE can get some snow out of it but that's about it. We're going to need some cold air to establish itself first, and that will come w/ the improving NPAC by D5-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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