Momza Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm at the point where I'm weary of how the Pacific looks... how the Atlantic looks...how your bathtub looks...maybe just listen to 1010 WINS radio like the old days...a far simpler time. Waiting for NOAA Radio to update 3 times a day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 0z Euro ensembles look even better for threat on Dec 21-22. The low transfers quicker off NJ. I think the third wave has most potential to be a snow producer down to coast. Better ridge behind it out West and 18-19 system acting like a 50/50 low. I agree. You can see the GEFS picking up on the main features with this potential now as well. The block retrograding over Central Canada is arguably the most important feature in this entire set up. The Euro has this feature very apparent by 140 hours -- and it becomes a dominant feature as the storm occurs, forcing the initial surface low development southeast, underneath it, to redevelop off the coast of New Jersey. The Operational GFS is not nearly as strong with this feature. One thing to consider is that, if the Euro or its ensembles are building this feature in too fast, the storm will not have a chance of giving us snow. So we have to watch that carefully. For now, the potential in this general time frame looks good. Also check out the ridge spiking out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The GFS superensemble analogs focused on Dec. 22, included dates for 12/21/10 snowstorm that affected Eastern New England and the Boxing Day Blizzard: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The midweek storm is ugly on the GFS . Way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The midweek storm is ugly on the GFS . Way inland. None of these are snow events for this area . Going to need patience in this pattern the next 7 days . We will be stepping towards a better set up but the next 2 or 3 systems are Rain . That gets you to Christmas . Then lets see if this was all worth the wait . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Is the low the gfs drags through as a strong cold front the storm the euro shows because I could see it being a big storm if it gets forced south underneath the block. If not then we will have to wait until after Christmas most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Is the low the gfs drags through as a strong cold front the storm the euro shows because I could see it being a big storm if it gets forced south underneath the block. If not then we will have to wait until after Christmas most likely. Yes, looks like the GFS is moving towards the Euro in that regard. Confidence seems to be increasing that if we do get something it will be of the miller B variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 As a few of us discussed earlier if the blocking is weaker for the Dec 21 - 23rd storm, it won't reform as far south. The 12z Euro confirms this with slightly weaker blocking..the sfc low reforms over NYC. It's still a powerful system and close to being snow...might be on the back end especially over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 As a few of us discussed earlier if the blocking is weaker for the Dec 21 - 23rd storm, it won't reform as far south. The 12z Euro confirms this with slightly weaker blocking..the sfc low reforms over NYC. It's still a powerful system and close to being snow...might be on the back end especially over the interior. on the bright side, hr 240 looks very good, yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 on the bright side, hr 240 looks very good, yet again. The set up still looks fine inside 180 hours. Things will change with the nuances of the set up. But having the blocking signal with a deep trough signaled on last nights ensembles is a very good sign. This run is a little weaker with the blocking so the primary goes farther north initially and the secondary reformation isn't quite as strong. But a strong signal for potential remains. That's all we can say at this point. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/f180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The set up still looks fine inside 180 hours. Things will change with the nuances of the set up. But having the blocking signal with a deep trough signaled on last nights ensembles is a very good sign. This run is a little weaker with the blocking so the primary goes farther north initially and the secondary reformation isn't quite as strong. But a strong signal for potential remains. That's all we can say at this point. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f180.gif quite a few similarities w/regard to placement of the major features across the NH: and: not to mention the vort dropping into the upper plains and the shape of contours at the h5 level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Not sure if i buy that ridging out ahead of the s/w with the 50/50 in a good spot and of course the blocking. Also the +PNA starts to come alive by day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 12z GEFS say what PNA spike? FWIW. It's also interesting to note that the 2 of the last 3 operational runs have featured a positive AO and on the 12z OP it was massively positive starting around the 23rd. That obviously would not bode well for any sort of arctic intrusion into the CONUS anytime soon. If you look at this Day 10 prog, the GFS features that seemingly elusive -EPO ridging into AK and we also have our PNA spike that that point but we're not able to tap into any truly arctic air with the PV locked up over the Pole. Sort of a bizarre looking pattern. I'm sure it will change a million times anyway, just looking for something to talk about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 As a few of us discussed earlier if the blocking is weaker for the Dec 21 - 23rd storm, it won't reform as far south. The 12z Euro confirms this with slightly weaker blocking..the sfc low reforms over NYC. It's still a powerful system and close to being snow...might be on the back end especially over the interior. There's also that issue and the fact that while the PNA spike helps, it might not help in time. There's definitely a better chance that it helps in time than for the prior wave, but it seems that things evolve too quickly. A very convoluted pattern to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 18z GEFS has a miller B. Secondary on Cape Cod. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS, EC, NOGAPS, GEM, all on board for the next 3 systems next week being lakes cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS, EC, NOGAPS, GEM, all on board for the next 3 systems next week being lakes cutters. I think the only interesting question the rest of the month is whether the Arctic air from 168 hours on keeps Central Park from its second consecutive top ten warmest Decembers. I think we end up just outside the top ten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS, EC, NOGAPS, GEM, all on board for the next 3 systems next week being lakes cutters. Yes, but with the Friday system the main question is whether there will be re-development of the main surface low that cuts to the Great Lakes on Thursday, and how far south will it re-develop. The cold air will wrap in very quickly after the transfer, if there is one. The EC ensemble gives us some hope that possibly it could re-develop far enough south for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yes, but with the Friday system the main question is whether there will be re-development of the main surface low that cuts to the Great Lakes on Thursday, and how far south will it re-develop. The cold air will wrap in very quickly after the transfer, if there is one. The EC ensemble gives us some hope that possibly it could re-develop far enough south for our area. Well the problem with a redeveloper is that they rarely have any good wraparound that far south as you would think if the low got to that position on its own. Yeah, maybe there could be a bit of light snow in NW Jersey where you live, but for the majority of readers here, I'd put the chance of snow next week at 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well the problem with a redeveloper is that they rarely have any good wraparound that far south as you would think if the low got to that position on its own. Yeah, maybe there could be a bit of light snow in NW Jersey where you live, but for the majority of readers here, I'd put the chance of snow next week at 20%. The real problem now is that the guidance is weakening the blocking and doesn't have it building as far south as some of the runs the other day. So what's happening is the primary is moving much farther north and this is becoming nothing more than a glorified cold front. We need the blocking to be farther south to force the H5 low underneath it, that's how you'll get redevelopment off the NJ Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The real problem now is that the guidance is weakening the blocking and doesn't have it building as far south as some of the runs the other day. So what's happening is the primary is moving much farther north and this is becoming nothing more than a glorified cold front. We need the blocking to be farther south to force the H5 low undernea th it, that's how you'll get redevelopment off the NJ Coast. I dont think thats goin to happen and thats why u see the models rotating new trofs into alaska and asia. The block is further north and its forcing the cold back over the top. And with the pac ridge pulling it north and west and not shunting it south then east There is no mechanism to turn the cold under instead it heads back west. We will see the trof come to the east coast nxt wknd but then it prob gets pulled back again. 2 great winters sometimes get followed by 2 ones. Just makes it normal. Thats just been in the back of my mind all dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I believe the pattern will give, but it will take until end of the month for any snow, I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I believe the pattern will give, but it will take until end of the month for any snow, I would say. The GFS keeps on showing a storm right after Christmas. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F15%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=276&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The GFS keeps on showing a storm right after Christmas. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M unfortunately the GFS has always been showing a storm at that range all month - can't be believed IMO -- can only shake your head at this pattern and wonder if we are going to relive the nightmare for snowlovers we went through in 11/12 - alot of high profiled METS looking kind of foolish so far this month also ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 unfortunately the GFS has always been showing a storm at that range all month - can't be believed IMO Yes but if we do get a storm , it will most likely be cold enough. The model again brings in really cold air just in time for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yes but if we do get a storm , it will most likely be cold enough. The model again brings in really cold air just in time for Christmas. Time will tell Snow - lets keep our fingers crossed but this whole pattern and month has been a humbling experience so far for the METS that have been forecasting a cold snowy December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Time will tell Snow - lets keep our fingers crossed but this whole pattern and month has been a humbling experience so far for the METS that have been forecasting a cold snowy December The tide of cold won't be turned now, it just won't. This December will be average at best, probably warm. However, as we all know, all it takes is one big storm for "snowy" to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The tide of cold won't be turned now, it just won't. This December will be average at best, probably warm. However, as we all know, all it takes is one big storm for "snowy" to verify. This December will most likely average slightly above normal( temps ). I agree about the snow part. All it takes is one big coastal storm to get more than the average snowfall in December.Looks like the 2nd half of December holds promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 12z Ukie has a miller b way further south than the GFS for the end of next week. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 12z Ukie has a miller b way further south than the GFS for the end of next week. http://meteocentre.c...&fixhh=1&hh=144 Thats a bit further south, but probably not enough to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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