Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 It looked like it was going to be a warm solution initially but this is the beauty of a block with a PNA spike. Also, when the storm was amplifying and heading towards Iowa, we were still on the downstream side of a progressive ridge. It's not like the entire eastern US pattern was amplified. Our NW flow aloft combined with the block forced the storm to redevelop well to the SE of its primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Deeper than that earthlight, more like 980 mb. Almost 3" QPF...wtf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The block over Central Canada is classic at 198 hours..you can see it force the h5 trough underneath it. Total weenie solution but the ensemble support certainty has my interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The block over Central Canada is classic at 198 hours..you can see it force the h5 trough underneath it. Total weenie solution but the ensemble support certainty has my interest. Plus the PNA has already spiked and the antecedent airmass isn't nearly as terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 198 hour 500mb/MSLP plot is as good as it gets. A gorgeous block in Canada forces a giant closed off low underneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Given the Euro solution at 200hrs, are you guys at all worried about the BL at that point? At face value it shouldn't be an issue with a low developing and sliding offshore under LI. But face value the 2m temps at least to start are a little high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Given the Euro solution at 200hrs, are you guys at all worried about the BL at that point? At face value it shouldn't be an issue with a low developing and sliding offshore under LI. But face value the 2m temps at least to start are a little high. Since its 2am and there's nothing else to do....there might be some BL and even ML temp problems near the coast at first. But the system deepens so rapidly and the lift is so extreme in that type of situation that you'd probably dynamically cool the column pretty rapidly. That's a total bomb of a solution. So although it might be warm for an hour...you'd rip snow to the coast for the majority of that once the mid levels cool and the surface would follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The block just sits over Canada even after the big storm. Really awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Since its 2am and there's nothing else to do....there might be some BL and even ML temp problems near the coast at first. But the system deepens so rapidly and the lift is so extreme in that type of situation that you'd probably dynamically cool the column pretty rapidly. That's a total bomb of a solution. So although it might be warm for an hour...you'd rip snow to the coast for the majority of that once the mid levels cool and the surface would follow. Clearly it's pretty cold in the ML unlike the messes we're going through with these first couple of chances. Interesting, and note another wave in the Gulf at D10. I still think that may try to make a pass too. Be interesting to see how it plays out in terms of which of these features gains prominence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Clearly it's pretty cold in the ML unlike the messes we're going through with these first couple of chances. Interesting, and note another wave in the Gulf at D10. I still think that may try to make a pass too. Be interesting to see how it plays out in terms of which of these features gains prominence. The first couple of storms are going to be crap in this area...there's a better chance for something frozen on the front end once you get into CT and SNE at least. But down here we have almost no chance. Any time you're in Dec and dealing with an antecedent airmass with 2 temp anomalies of +4 to +8 (on the GEFS means) ... you've got an issue. But the block hasn't even split south of Scandanavia yet. As you can see with tonight's Euro..having that block/positive height anomaly west and south/west of Greenland makes a huge difference. Getting the low level cold is going to be a little tedious at times since the Pac isn't perfect...but the pattern will be much better in about 6 to 8 days time from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The first couple of storms are going to be crap in this area...there's a better chance for something frozen on the front end once you get into CT and SNE at least. But down here we have almost no chance. Any time you're in Dec and dealing with an antecedent airmass with 2 temp anomalies of +4 to +8 (on the GEFS means) ... you've got an issue. But the block hasn't even split south of Scandanavia yet. As you can see with tonight's Euro..having that block/positive height anomaly west and south/west of Greenland makes a huge difference. Getting the low level cold is going to be a little tedious at times since the Pac isn't perfect...but the pattern will be much better in about 6 to 8 days time from now. Agreed on all accounts. Have a good night and thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 GGEM supports the idea of a pna spike and an amplified pacific wave, but its solution is ridiculous. The storm early next weeks becomes the 50/50 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Since its 2am and there's nothing else to do....there might be some BL and even ML temp problems near the coast at first. But the system deepens so rapidly and the lift is so extreme in that type of situation that you'd probably dynamically cool the column pretty rapidly. That's a total bomb of a solution. So although it might be warm for an hour...you'd rip snow to the coast for the majority of that once the mid levels cool and the surface would follow. There is a huge warm tongue on that guy, its a lot like 3/31/1997. It probably would eventually turn at the coast but a huge amount of precip would be wasted before then. IIRC in Boston in that one (which is where NYC seems to be depicted in this one), it rain/snow mixed all day long before finally changing over to pure snow in the evening. Fortunately for them it kept ripping, but it was a massive waste of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 There is a huge warm tongue on that guy, its a lot like 3/31/1997. It probably would eventually turn at the coast but a huge amount of precip would be wasted before then. IIRC in Boston in that one (which is where NYC seems to be depicted in this one), it rain/snow mixed all day long before finally changing over to pure snow in the evening. Fortunately for them it kept ripping, but it was a massive waste of precip. With 25.4" at Logan...even those who enjoy snow were probably not all that dismayed with the lost accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 With 25.4" at Logan...even those who enjoy snow were probably not all that dismayed with the lost accumulation. I probably shouldn't have to mention how much NYC got thanks to the persistent warm tongue.... they kept saying "its gonna change over, its gonna change over..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I probably shouldn't have to mention how much NYC got thanks to the persistent warm tongue.... they kept saying "its gonna change over, its gonna change over..." Something like a slushy inch for the uninitiated; near a foot and a half on the Westchester / Putnam line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Something like a slushy inch for the uninitiated; near a foot and a half on the Westchester / Putnam line. Essentially... which ranged from a trace at Central Park to 1.5" at JFK. 2.8" at EWR, 7" at White Plains, 8.8" at TTN. Anyway, point being that if the warm tongue is really strong (and you need one really strong to drop the sort of precip depicted), those who are unlucky enough to get stuck under it will get ripped off. Over 2" of liquid fell in the city on 3/31-4/1/1997. For an average of maybe 1" of slop. I'm not saying that's going to happen, I'm not saying I buy the EC depiction, I'm not saying big snow is impossible or guaranteed. I'm just saying... be cautious. Don't get excited for next week, unless you are OK with a big let down, because odds probably favor the let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm just saying... be cautious. Don't get excited for next week, A guy at the office asked me my thoughts on next Friday's Mayan End of the World deal yesterday morning...told him I never look that far ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 0z Euro ensembles look even better for threat on Dec 21-22. The low transfers quicker off NJ. I think the third wave has most potential to be a snow producer down to coast. Better ridge behind it out West and 18-19 system acting like a 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 6z GFS would be popular in psych wards...at least through hour 129. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 6z GFS would be popular in psych wards...at least through hour 129. OMG!!! Wraparound snow east of the mountains at 204 hrs on 6z GFS....And I believe in the tooth fairy and the fact that everyone gets treated equally, no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 What a joke of a numerical weather model...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 What a joke of a numerical weather model...... I think the joke is on us...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I think the joke is on us...lol. It usually is, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 It usually is, isn't it? I'm at the point where I'm weary of how the Pacific looks... how the Atlantic looks...how your bathtub looks...maybe just listen to 1010 WINS radio like the old days...a far simpler time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I'm at the point where I'm weary of how the Pacific looks... how the Atlantic looks...how your bathtub looks...maybe just listen to 1010 WINS radio like the old days...a far simpler time. Lol, how'd you know? I think end of next week holds quite a bit of promise for us. We've got the DS blocking scheme as a lock at this point, just need that +PNA spike to come to fruition and the job should get done before Xmas. There is something to be said for the old days...loved the drama and excitement listening to 1010 and 880 as things unfolded.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yes, please..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The setup at 192 hours on the GFS/Euro looks so eerily similar to 4/6/82 and by that I mean nationwide as far as the entire pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The 00z ECMWF ENS look nice for the system on the 22nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Next weekend's storm has a lot more colder air to work with than Wednesday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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