earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro ensembles directly over the 40/70 bm at 144 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 To be fair, with ensembles, signals are often muted a bit. They smooth out the extremes. When taking that into account, the signals are clearly there for a PNA spike along with the NAO block. Perhaps the Aleutian ridge would bridge with them, too. It's still a bit far out in time but I still like the signals. Could the trough orientation be a bit too far east? Sure. But I feel like once you take into account that extremes are muted on ensembles, that problem becomes significantly less. It's not impossible. But when you have a -PDO type Pacific pattern, the Atlantic side blocking has to really dominate the Pacific like we had back in 2010. The Aleutians ridge needs to weaken and allow the -NAO ridge to complete the retrograde. A partial retrograde would just leave us with an omega block and mostly dry NW flow aloft. But we'll see what happens since it's beyond the 10 day ensemble mean range at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro ensembles directly over the 40/70 bm at 144 hrs So where does that put us in the tristate area? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The Euro ensembles have a really strong signal for a deep trough in the East at 192 hours, with a ridge spike out west and the huge blocking retrograding to the Davis Straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The Euro ensembles have a really strong signal for a deep trough in the East at 192 hours, with a ridge spike out west and the huge blocking retrograding to the Davis Straight. Thats when the operational was showing a miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The Euro ensembles have a really strong signal for a deep trough in the East at 192 hours, with a ridge spike out west and the huge blocking retrograding to the Davis Straight. Based on what you are seeing - how confident are you that this same signal will still be there at or less than 120 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 991 on the euro ensemble mean for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Based on what you are seeing - how confident are you that this same signal will still be there at or less than 120 hours out? Hard to say because there are so many shortwaves embedded within a very active flow. But seeing the Euro ensembles with such a robust negative height anomaly at that time is certainly encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This doesn't look bad at all for the system next week. 12z ECMWF ENS at hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 On the 12z ECMWF the Aleutian ridge connects up with -NAO over Northern Canada. Forcing cold air from Northern Canada down over the CONUS: now thats a much improved pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 now thats a much improved pattern The ensemble mean still has a poor looking Pacific pattern for us. This composite with a weakened Aleutians ridge is what we would need to see to get excited about a big snow here in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The 18z GFS looks like it's going to produce a different solution than the 12z GFS entirely. You can see noticeable changes in the 500 mb heights associated with the PAC s/w and with the weekend system at hour 87 on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Really warm run on the GFS. It did trend west and stronger though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 18z GFS ensemble mean has a 994mb low just south of Long Island at 132 hrs. and 5 of the 12 individual members bomb the low over Virginia down into the 980's or lower. Look at P002 down to 960mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 18z GFS ensemble mean has a 994mb low just south of Long Island at 132 hrs. And like the GFS, it is much too warm for pretty much everyone in the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 And like the GFS, it is much too warm for pretty much everyone in the CWA. Some members explode the storm near Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 0z GEFS is further west than the op. Red flag for the op. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12132.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 0z GEFS is further west than the op. Red flag for the op. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12132.gif Yes, it sure is. For the ensemble mean to show over .50 inches there must be a few members showing really good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 must be a few members showing really good hits. With rain. This is your antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 With rain. This is your antecedent airmass. If we get precipitation on Tuesday night or Wednesday as the models are indicating is a possibility, I believe we could get snow in Northern New Jersey. 850's are below freezing by then and the Euro showed surface temps in the low to mid 30's at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 If we get precipitation on Tuesday night or Wednesday as the models are indicating is a possibility, I believe we could get snow in Northern New Jersey. 850's are below freezing by then and the Euro showed surface temps in the low to mid 30's at that point Maybe the high elevations on the back end. This pattern both aloft and with the surface cold air available will make it very hard to get snow at sea level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro's got the surface low sitting over Philly at 102 hours. Looks like it's headed for Central LI at 108. Warm for everybody outside of Northern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 It is a deepening low from 992 near Cape May to 988mb just south of Long Island with a track that keeps it just off shore. This would keep it warm near the coast, but I really think the model is warming things up too much for a low of that magnitude that is deepening and remaining off shore as it passes by our location, and with that intensity of precipitation (around 1.25 inches of precip). I think you are too negative on this storm. it may still bomb out earlier too. And what if it tracks just slightly further off shore? Even with that track and that intensity of low pressure and precip, I just think it is too warm and it will verify colder. Maybe not cold enough for the city or the coast, but inland locations may get some decent snow, in my opinion. Don't argue with him, John. Obviously he knows what he's talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Don't argue with him, John. Obviously he knows what he's talking about. Good time for a subject change before I waste time on that one again... The Euro has a really ridiculous solution at 174 hours but it's really cool to see. This fits right into the Euro Ens signal from this afternoon for a potential big Eastern US trough. On this run the primary gets far north...Chicago...but the cold air hangs tough in the Northeast. Now the ULL has northern stream component and it is being forced underneath the block. Just like that...the blocking pays off..and we're close to a Miller B snowstorm at 186 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro is really amp'ed up with that 3rd wave. Which cuts into the lakes and then finds its way to the coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Wow....huge redevelopment off the coast or near the coast at 192 hours. QPF bomb...storm goes insane...down to the 980's. Warm near the coast with a warm tongue remaining but a QPF bomb major snowstorm over Western NJ/Northern NJ ... SE NY...CT...Philly...and Eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Euro is really amp'ed up with that 3rd wave. Which cuts into the lakes and then finds its way to the coast lol That wave can't go into the block. It's forced to redevelop. Hence the excitement by myself and a few others over the 12z Euro Ens signal. PS.....big snowstorm at 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 984mb low sitting off the NJ coast at 198 hours. Looks like the CCB develops overhead as the cyclone literally develops rapidly and matures in that spot. Big solution -- 12z Euro ensemble-esq. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 That wave can't go into the block. It's forced to redevelop. Hence the excitement by myself and a few others over the 12z Euro Ens signal. PS.....big snowstorm at 198. Woof. I love how that s/w comes in on the west coast really amped up, the blocking is already in place so a cutter solution unlikely. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Absolutely gorgeous 500mb height field....closed 500 low underneath Long Island. I think we have our first snowstorm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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