bluewave Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 It got down to -3.0 a few days ago, which is not that far off. The duration and intensity of the blocking was greater than we seeing this year. We set the 500 mb positive height anomaly record in December 2010. 2009 featured several days in a row of over 400 m anomalies with a much colder pattern in place than we are seeing this year. I am not saying that it would be impossible to see snow here before the month is finished, just that the lack of cold air will make it more challenging to get a storm of say 4-6 inches plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Good point about folks in the subforum. Up here in the hills of Sussex might be a good spot.. But the really warm solutions would even keep me shoveling cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 Good point about folks in the subforum. Up here in the hills of Sussex might be a good spot.. But the really warm solutions would even keep me shoveling cold rain This looks like a classic North and West of I-287 special to me, which is good for my backyard. Hopefully we do get something next week and it sets the stage for a major system that we can all cash in on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z GFS is OTS and really zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS tries to capture the system at the last second, pretty funny look actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z GFS is OTS and really zonal. This looks like the opposite of a zonal flow to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 WAY colder and pops some decent precip in Eastern PA and NJ. Bow to the Euro with a late capture idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS tries to capture the system at the last second, pretty funny look actually. Norlun signal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 850s are barely cold enough, surface is warm... the general theme of this whole period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Aside from the h240 on the 0Z Euro (which looked really good, but alas its 240 hours away, as usual), this pattern (at least what depicted on the GFS) in the longer term looks crappy, to put it mildly. Its a constant roll over western ridge, +epo, no real blocking, little room for amplification and NO COLD AIR anywhere...i am quite certain if the GFS comes to fruition there wont be any meaningful winter weather at our latitude for quite some time - First week of january at the soonest, probably longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 This looks like the opposite of a zonal flow to me It just looks horrid to me...the jet configuration seems way out of whack...that wouldnt be horrible with a split flow and have everything shoved a few thousand miles south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Aside from the h240 on the 0Z Euro (which looked really good, but alas its 240 hours away, as usual), this pattern (at least what depicted on the GFS) in the longer term looks crappy, to put it mildly. Its a constant roll over western ridge, +epo, no real blocking, little room for amplification and NO COLD AIR anywhere...i am quite certain if the GFS comes to fruition there wont be any meaningful winter weather at our latitude for quite some time - First week of january at the soonest, probably longer. Dont look at the GFS past 120 hrs - late next week is wrong , its just too fast with the trof into the West , so it knocks the hieght lines down and sends energy into the lakes Not if theres a block there , so dont look too far down the road . Its been having trouble with every piece of energy in the next 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z GGEM doesn't have anything up here http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Dont look at the GFS past 120 hrs - late next week is wrong , its just too fast with the trof into the West , so it knocks the hieght lines down and sends energy into the lakes Not if theres a block there , so dont look too far down the road . Its been having trouble with every piece of energy in the next 7 days its about the main players...i just dont see this as a pattern that will produce anything substantial (or for that matter at all)...the pacific is AWFUL. That needs to sort itself quick or we are in troubles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z GGEM doesn't have anything up here http://www.weatherof...ast/236_100.gif wait - didnt it show a bomb 2 or 3 runs in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 wait - didnt it show a bomb 2 or 3 runs in a row? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 its about the main players...i just dont see this as a pattern that will produce anything substantial (or for that matter at all)...the pacific is AWFUL. That needs to sort itself quick or we are in troubles... Maybe headed into a slightly better pattern . The PAC will never be perfect . Think it gets lost on pp that we live on the coast at a mid lattitude and theres always goin to be a fly in the ointment . Theres a lot of support in the Ensembles that point to storms flying accross with a block . So not sure if patterns gets to where it has too , but prob better than where we were . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 its about the main players...i just dont see this as a pattern that will produce anything substantial (or for that matter at all)...the pacific is AWFUL. That needs to sort itself quick or we are in troubles... You would want to see that block out near the Aleutians weaken enough to let the retrograding -NAO block end up further west than the day 10 Euro is depicting. Otherwise, the trough near the East Coast will be in a position to far east for a storm for us. Eastern New England could get lucky along with the possibility of an overrunning event in the Mid-Atlantic. Hopefully, the Pacific stops overpowering the Atlantic and it gets colder over the East further down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You would want to see that block out near the Aleutians weaken enough to let the retrograding -NAO block end up further west than the day 10 Euro is depicting. Otherwise, the trough near the East Coast will be in a position to far east for a storm for us. Eastern New England could get lucky along with the possibility of an overrunning event in the Mid-Atlantic. Hopefully, the Pacific stops overpowering the Atlantic and it gets colder over the East further down the road. I've been seeing for awhile now on the GEFS too. Even after the18-20th storms bombs out, the trough axis winds up too far east, for anything to turn more north up the coast. The period after the 20th to around Christmas, might just be cold and dry for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 988 mb just SE of the BM on the 12z ECMWF at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 144 Euro . Precip looks light - 850`s look ok , Gotta look underneath at BL in the absence of enough dynamics , but ive seen worse runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 wait - didnt it show a bomb 2 or 3 runs in a row? Why you don't read models verbatim 7-10 days out. Fun to look at but have to take many different factors into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro has gotten rid of the wound up system. However, there looks to be just enough cold air in place for areas north and west. I just want a consolation prize. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 12z euro at hr 186 has a late blooming miller B. Cold enough for snow looks like a 1-3 2-4 type deal. Then the whole country gets really cold for christmas week. Coldest air we seen since 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Maybe headed into a slightly better pattern . The PAC will never be perfect . Think it gets lost on pp that we live on the coast at a mid lattitude and theres always goin to be a fly in the ointment . Theres a lot of support in the Ensembles that point to storms flying accross with a block . So not sure if patterns gets to where it has too , but prob better than where we were . i will say the Op 12Z Euro in the long range (240) looks real good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You would want to see that block out near the Aleutians weaken enough to let the retrograding -NAO block end up further west than the day 10 Euro is depicting. Otherwise, the trough near the East Coast will be in a position to far east for a storm for us. Eastern New England could get lucky along with the possibility of an overrunning event in the Mid-Atlantic. Hopefully, the Pacific stops overpowering the Atlantic and it gets colder over the East further down the road. to me, the -nao block seems too far west...its impeding the cold air from getting down here...maybe im crazy (and wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The Pacific is greatly improved on the euro days 7-10. -EPO, +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 On the 12z ECMWF the Aleutian ridge connects up with -NAO over Northern Canada. Forcing cold air from Northern Canada down over the CONUS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 to me, the -nao block seems too far west...its impeding the cold air from getting down here...maybe im crazy (and wrong) The Pacific pattern hasn't been favorable for snow or cold here so far this month. The ensembles maintain too strong of a ridge south of the Aleutians overpowering the Atlantic. Cold and snowy December composite since 1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 To be fair, with ensembles, signals are often muted a bit. They smooth out the extremes. When taking that into account, the signals are clearly there for a PNA spike along with the NAO block. Perhaps the Aleutian ridge would bridge with them, too. It's still a bit far out in time but I still like the signals. Could the trough orientation be a bit too far east? Sure. But I feel like once you take into account that extremes are muted on ensembles, that problem becomes significantly less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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