bmc10 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I continue to believe that if we have a strong area of confluence to our north and some blocking that all solutions remain viable. Yes I understand the pac is causing warmer temps, but the reality is that although marginal, there is cold enough air available. We need a few things to hold true, starting with the confluence and block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Changes on the Euro through 84 are all over the place...hard to see any trends because things are jumping around in every which way with every piece of energy. Ensembles become really useful in these situations...and model physics are clearly playing a role in the solutions because every models ensemble mean is following the OP in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM goes nuts with the final wave at 180 hours...same wave the Euro blows up..but farther offshore. Edit: Temperature maps haven't updated yet. I could be wrong (obviously), but I believe that the chances that we are cold enough during a major storm prior to December 22nd are extremely remote. Heights are just too low on the west coast that any intensifying storm in the east would hook too far to the left prior to the 22nd. After then, all bets are off. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I could be wrong (obviously), but I believe that the chances that we are cold enough during a major storm prior to December 22nd are extremely remote. Heights are just too low on the west coast that any intensifying storm in the east would hook too far to the left prior to the 22nd. After then, all bets are off. WX/PT It's certainly more likely about 25 miles west of the city and coast, but yes...it's pretty hard. The pattern is turning volatile very quickly, though. I think we're heading into a really active period and that we'll have plenty of chances through mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I could be wrong (obviously), but I believe that the chances that we are cold enough during a major storm prior to December 22nd are extremely remote. Heights are just too low on the west coast that any intensifying storm in the east would hook too far to the left prior to the 22nd. After then, all bets are off. WX/PT Not to pick a dispute with you...you are an excellent met...but I have been reading you for years...and one common thread in your outlooks (or at least it has *appeared* to me this way) is that whatever the GFS says is given *exceptional* weight...a different run at 12z from that model would potentially change your whole outlook, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The 0z GGEM is stronger with the second wave. So third wave is colder and farther south. But this the first run that the GGEM has developed third wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 992mb on the euro outside the BM. Focusing on the 2nd wave still. I'd imagine if we had some good precip it would be snow but precip is patchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 992mb on the euro outside the BM. Focusing on the 2nd wave still. I'd imagine if we had some good precip it would be snow but precip is patchy Que es la hora? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Finally matures at 168 but too late for us. H5 is a tad messy over the south. Not a bad run but many changes still lie ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Nice snowstorm for parts of New England, monster storm 980mb. A bit earlier capture/development and we might have actually seen a decent run for our area. Good confluence to the north would also support strong winds it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Ends up being a really nice run for much of Central/Eastern New England away from the coast...they wind up getting both waves. But the Euro still holds with the big storm solution. It's just a late bloomer this run and a lot of that has to do with the first wave being so strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 PNA coming alive towards the end of the run as well with tremendous cold and blocking for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro is setting up for something nice on xmas eve/xmas day probably. Really great setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 HPC THE MODELS SHOW NOTICEABLE DIVERGENCE EVEN BEFORE SUN/DAY 3 OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE PAST WEEK. NONETHELESS... ALL AGREE THAT AS ENERGY TRANSLATES DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE PAC NW IT IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AMPLIFY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD SET OFF AT LEAST TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC. THE RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS ALONG WITH ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN MAINTAIN A QUICKER PROGRESSION OF THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN LAG BEHIND BY ROUGHLY 24 HRS. THE SEPARATION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DECREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST... ESPECIALLY IN THE SPECIFICS. THOUGH MEMBER SPREAD WITHIN EACH ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HRS... IT IS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THAT HAS MAINTAINED ITS FORECAST TROUGH AXIS POSITION/AMPLITUDE. GIVEN HPC CONTINUITY AS WELL... DECIDED TO GIVE THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN THE BULK OF THE WEIGHT IN THE FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro is setting up for something nice on xmas eve/xmas day probably. Really great setup Yeah, that OP day 10 Euro is one of the best looking patterns we've seen since...well December 2010. It's like a weenie drew the map. The Aleutian Ridge, the PNA ridge, and our NAO block are all bridging together. This would be a sustained, blockbuster pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 0z GFS ensembles are all over the place http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_0z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Euro ensemble mean has the low going over the benchmark. It is warm for coastal areas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 6z GFS is really disorganized and warm for the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 6z gefs look much better than the op. It has 3 waves and focuses on the third wave. Ends up on the bm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 6z GFS is really disorganized and warm for the northeast. Yesterdays 12z had a -22C @850mb (for the morning of the 28th. over NYC) now just 3 runs later it indicates a +4C @850mb, or nearly a 50 degree F difference!. This is cartoonish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yesterdays 12z had a -22C @850mb (for the morning of the 28th. over NYC) now just 3 runs later it indicates a +4C @850mb, or nearly a 50 degree F difference!. This is cartoonish! thats normal at 15 days out - whats not normal is how only 5 days away the 6Z GFS OP says "what Dec 18 - 20 storm ? " this model in particular so far should be thrown out for this storm.....ensembles have to be looked at more closely right now. If you look at HPC Maps for next week they are showing a storm with a perfect track for NYC Metro BUT the most important ingredient is missing - enough cold air and strong enough high pressure in southeast Canada - http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The set up on the forecast models for this storm system is becoming increasingly progressive aloft, especially to the west over the Central US where this is already a mid level ridge building in now on almost every model that is extending into the OH Valley. There is still plenty of time to go here, but the combination of a poor antecedent airmass, relatively muddled upper air set up, and a progressive pattern suggest to me that the chances of most of us seeing snow with this storm are low and the chance of seeing it near the coast are even lower. I think our better chance could come just after 12/20, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The set up on the forecast models for this storm system is becoming increasingly progressive aloft, especially to the west over the Central US where this is already a mid level ridge building in now on almost every model that is extending into the OH Valley. There is still plenty of time to go here, but the combination of a poor antecedent airmass, relatively muddled upper air set up, and a progressive pattern suggest to me that the chances of most of us seeing snow with this storm are low and the chance of seeing it near the coast are even lower. I think our better chance could come just after 12/20, but we'll see. I have been saying this over in the sne forum. With such a crappy airmass, both of these storms will be rain outside of nne. I think we all agree our chances are best during christmas timeframe. Fwiw dt is woofing about it on his latest fb status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The Euro and GFS ensemble means are in good agreement that even a track east of us won't be cold enough for the coastal sections due to all the warmth preceding the storm. Euro GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The set up on the forecast models for this storm system is becoming increasingly progressive aloft, especially to the west over the Central US where this is already a mid level ridge building in now on almost every model that is extending into the OH Valley. There is still plenty of time to go here, but the combination of a poor antecedent airmass, relatively muddled upper air set up, and a progressive pattern suggest to me that the chances of most of us seeing snow with this storm are low and the chance of seeing it near the coast are even lower. I think our better chance could come just after 12/20, but we'll see. Whether we wind up seeing rain or snow, the 18-20th storm has to be big enough for those following threats to work out for us. Otherwise we'll be dealing with a progressive flow, until at least Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 I would just like to take the time to remind certain people that not everyone in this sub-forum lives on or near the coast. This pattern reminds me an awful lot of December 2010. If people remember correctly we just missed out on a threat a few days earlier that eventually paved the way for Boxing Day less than a week later. Sometimes you need to sacrafice a few lambs before you can harvest the crops. I will expand this thread to include the entire week of December 18-26th as a possible flashpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Can't get truly cold air here until there's some ridging out west. Otherwise, one/two days of relative cold and then it warms up enough to rain. We gotta have both the -NAO and somewhat of a +PNA. WX/PT The Euro and GFS ensemble means are in good agreement that even a track east of us won't be cold enough for the coastal sections due to all the warmth preceding the storm. Euro GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I would just like to take the time to remind certain people that not everyone in this sub-forum lives on or near the coast. This pattern reminds me an awful lot of December 2010. If people remember correctly we just missed out on a threat a few days earlier that eventually paved the way for Boxing Day less than a week later. Sometimes you need to sacrafice a few lambs before you can harvest the crops. I will expand this thread to include the entire week of December 18-26th as a possible flashpoint. I am not sure of what the day to day synoptics will look like past the day ten mark, but the -AO is not nearly as strong as it was back in mid-December 2009 and 2010. We also had cross polar flow established for over 3 weeks before we got the Boxing Day Blizzard here with record cold temps in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I am not sure of what the day to day synoptics will look like past the day ten mark, but the -AO is not nearly as strong as it was back in mid-December 2009 and 2010. We also had cross polar flow established for over 3 weeks before we got the Boxing Day Blizzard here with record cold temps It got down to -3.0 a few days ago, which is not that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 13, 2012 Author Share Posted December 13, 2012 I am not sure of what the day to day synoptics will look like past the day ten mark, but the -AO is not nearly as strong as it was back in mid-December 2009 and 2010. We also had cross polar flow established for over 3 weeks before we got the Boxing Day Blizzard here with record cold temps in the Southeast. Good points, and I'm not trying to say that the two events are identical setups because they aren't. It seemed like that year we had an endless supply of cold air to work with. My thinking matches that of a lot of people with regards to the system around the 18-20th setting the stage for a bigger potential around Christmas. Taking a look at the latest Analogs off the CIPS site, they continue to honk at big snowfall potential for most of New England and Westward into PA and NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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