N Plains Winter Storm? - Dec 15th

[prinsburg_wx]

Looks like another winter type storm shaping up for portions of the northern plains this fri-sat. Most models are taking a L

from Omaha to WI during this period with the 20121212 12z GFS catching on to this track as well. Looks like a warmer system

than the one that buried MN with snow last weekend so i'm sure precip type will be an issue on the north side of the storm

& rain/tstorms to the south.

[AgeeWx]

::EDITED::

Yeah GFS shows temps above freezing North of the Cities at 12Z on Saturday. Gotta figure this is going to be more rain than snow, at least initially.

[prinsburg_wx]

::EDITED::

Yeah GFS shows temps above freezing North of the Cities at 12Z on Saturday. Gotta figure this is going to be more rain than snow, at least initially.

Yeah, this will probably be a low total snow event but freezing rain is also possible but how much & where is still a ?.

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

337 PM EST WED DEC 12 2012

DAY 3...FRI EVE TO SAT EVE...

THE RAPIDLY LIFTING SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE

SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL REACH THE MIDWEST BY LATE

SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES THE PLAINS STATES ON

FRIDAY...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN ONCE THE SYSTEM

MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND WILL NOT START PRODUCING FROZEN

PRECIPITATION UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS

COLDER AIR OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST.

INITIALLY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY BE BELOW FREEZING AND

FREEZING RAIN IS A POSSIBILITY FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS

NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO COOL AS

DYNAMIC COOLING AS WELL AS REACHING DEEPER COLD AIR ALLOWING SNOW

TO FALL FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO

WISCONSIN. WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH OF THE

PRECIPITATION FALLS AS EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW...HAVE

INDICATED MOSTLY ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES

OF SNOW AT THIS POINT.

[baroclinic_instability]

I haven't looked much...mainly because it isn't going to be a pretty storm. Lots of liquid.

[MnWeatherman]

Freezing rain appears to be my main concern for this system with small snow accumulations as prinsburg_wx mentioned. GFS has been making a persistent northward shift lessening the chances even more for significant snowfalls.

[prinsburg_wx]

Freezing rain appears to be my main concern for this system with small snow accumulations as prinsburg_wx mentioned. GFS has been making a persistent northward shift lessening the chances even more for significant snowfalls.

12z Nam is consistent with it's past couple of runs of surface temps not getting above 32 during the event and qpf around 0.50...would not be surprised if MPX issued some type of weather headline as the event nears.

[prinsburg_wx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

242 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST ACROSS MUCH OF

CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND A SMALL PART OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE

ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT...NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRANITE

FALLS...TO ST CLOUD AND BALSAM LAKE...FROM 3 AM TONIGHT TO 3 PM

SATURDAY. THIS IS FOR THE POTENTIAL COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN

FOLLOWED BY ACCUMULATING SNOW.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE

TONIGHT AND MOVE OUT SATURDAY EVENING. FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS

AFTER PRECIPITATION STARTS...IT IS EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AS

LIQUID. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AS THIS OCCURS...

AND WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...THE PRECIPITATION

WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...

THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN AND SNOW...WITH 1

TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE

CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

MNZ041>045-049>053-057-WIZ014-150500-

/O.EXA.KMPX.WW.Y.0010.121215T0900Z-121215T2100Z/

DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-

ISANTI-CHISAGO-KANDIYOHI-POLK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...

LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...ELK RIVER...

CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...WILLMAR...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE

242 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST SATURDAY.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE ADVISORY AREA

AFTER 3 AM. IT WILL LIKELY FALL AS RAIN FOR THE FIRST FEW

HOURS...WITH THIS BEING FREEZING RAIN WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN

BELOW FREEZING. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION WILL

TRANSITION TO RAIN OR SNOW...THAT WILL TAPER OFF IN THE

AFTERNOON.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WHERE

TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...FOLLOWED BY 1 TO 3 INCHES

OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

[msp]

looking like a cool few tenths of an inch of rain here in the metro. should melt a chunk of the snowcover quite nicely.

[ksstormhunter]

SmartCast for 15/08Z to 16/08Z

Looking at a general 2” accumulation for the next 24 hours across the MN/WI areas. Areas around the Chandler, MN looking for 3-6” of snow accumulations.

Chandler, MN Area: Looking for Snow to begin around 19Z, with visibilities down to ½ mile. Looking at snow accumulations of around 5” for the period.

Hibbing, MN Area: Looking at periods of Freezing Rain from 10Z to 14Z, then rain/snow mix til 22Z, then changing to snow. Snow accumulations of 2.4” possible for the period.

Brainerd, MN Area: Looking for snow to begin around 22Z, with snow accumulations of 2.2” possible for the period.

Uploaded my matrix for the area: http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

[prinsburg_wx]

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

416 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2012

A CLASSIC NEG TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID

MS VLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NEWRD THROUGH THE UPR MS VLY/WRN

GREAT LAKES ON SAT TO POTENTIALLY DELIVER ANOTHER HEAVY SNOWFALL

ACROSS PARTS OF MN. ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS OF A

SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM SERN NE/NERN KS TO CENTRAL WI... ENOUGH

VERTICAL LIFT AND RELATIVELY COLD AIR APPEARS PRESENT FOR A

CONCENTRATED BAND OF HVY SNOWFALL FROM EXTREME ERN SD AND SWRN MN

TO NRN/NERN MN. THE GUIDANCE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING

FROM 24 HRS AGO TO STRONGER DYNAMIC COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE

SYSTEM... A MORE DEVELOPED DEFORMATION ZONE AND HEAVIER QPF

AMOUNTS... THUS 4 AND 8 INCH HVY SNOW PROBS WERE ISSUED

[prinsburg_wx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

618 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012

...ICE STORM EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TODAY...

...ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

.AN ICE STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR YELLOW MEDICINE

AND LAC QUI PARLE COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RAIN IS

MOVING INTO THESE COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE

20S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL

DAY...WITH FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO

SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN

INCH ARE EXPECTED. BESIDE MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS...POWER

OUTAGES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS THE WEIGHT OF THE ICE COULD

BRING DOWN TREES AND POWERLINES. ONCE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS

MADE THIS AFTERNOON...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE

POSSIBLE ON TOP OF THE ICE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTH AND WEST OF A

LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO...TO ST CLOUD AND BALSAM LAKE. IT IS IN

EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND

MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WI. THIS IS FOR

THE DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING.

PRECIPITATION IS QUICKLY SPREADING NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS

MORNING. TEMPERATURES THOUGH HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE

ENTIRE ADVISORY AREA. AS A RESULT...RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE

PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH NOON TODAY...BUT AFTER NOON...A

TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL

MINNESOTA. HOW MUCH SNOW IS SEEN WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW

QUICKLY THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. CURRENTLY...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW

IS EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A GRANITE FALLS TO MORA LINE. IF AN

EARLIER TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS...THEN 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW

WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME PLACES. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY

NORTHWEST OF A MORA TO MILLE LACS LAKE LINE.

BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

MNZ054-064-152030-

/O.UPG.KMPX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-121216T0000Z/

/O.NEW.KMPX.IS.W.0001.121215T1218Z-121216T0000Z/

LAC QUI PARLE-YELLOW MEDICINE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MADISON...GRANITE FALLS

618 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS

EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS

MOST OF LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY AND LOCATIONS IN YELLOW MEDICINE

COUNTY WEST OF CLARKFIELD. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED UNTIL A

TRANSITION TO SNOW IS MADE IN THE AFTERNOON.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 TENTHS OF AN INCH.

* MAIN IMPACT...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL

LEAD TO TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ALONG THE WITH POSSIBILITY

FOR DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR

POWER OUTAGES AS WELL.

* OTHER IMPACTS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS

AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

[baroclinic_instability]

At least this cyclone looks nice on satellite.

[prinsburg_wx]

At least this cyclone looks nice on satellite.

Yeah, maybe i shouldn't of made the thread but oh well...

[baroclinic_instability]

Yeah, maybe i shouldn't of made the thread but oh well...

No it was worthy of a thread even if it doesn't dump snow. Any obs/reports?

[prinsburg_wx]

No it was worthy of a thread even if it doesn't dump snow. Any obs/reports?

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1139 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1130 AM SNOW MOTLEY 46.34N 94.64W

12/15/2012 M1.5 INCH MORRISON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

1138 AM SNOW CANBY 44.71N 96.27W

12/15/2012 E2.0 INCH YELLOW MEDICINE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN

1102 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

1100 AM SNOW 5 N PILLAGER 46.40N 94.48W

12/15/2012 M1.2 INCH CASS MN COCORAHS

1000 AM FREEZING RAIN 5 E LEADER 46.52N 94.54W

12/15/2012 E0.25 INCH CASS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

[msp]

0.04" of rain here... much less than expected. still has done a decent job of getting the snowcover down to only a couple inches.

[prinsburg_wx]

0.04" of rain here... much less than expected. still has done a decent job of getting the snowcover down to only a couple inches.

0.22" rain here...warm layer aloft was too much to overcome & i thought the deep snowpack would help keep surface temps down and give more of the area freezing rain but that didn't pan out either. Some spots in w MN getting some decent snow accumulation but it's spotty.