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Dec 16-20 Snow/Mix events - Going over like a fart in church


HoarfrostHubb

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stop misquoting everyone on the board, the EURO trended toward the GFS that was the main takeaway of the overnight runs.

I don't agree with that. In fact, if anything, I'd say GFS/ vs the overall vibe of cmc/euro.

Euro was not as cold as 12z but that was extreme most of us thought.

GFS seemed in its own with the management of the waves.

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So were now pretty much left with the GGEM in terms of snowy solutions (throwing out the Norlun on the 6z GFS).

I think this trend has been coming for a while with the models closing the gap between the two storms and not letting the second wave dig enough.

???

Euro was snowy for many as well and similar to the ggem. Kevin isn't making that up. Look at the two model runs.

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I don't agree with that. In fact, if anything, I'd say GFS/ vs the overall vibe of cmc/euro.

Euro was not as cold as 12z but that was extreme most of us thought.

GFS seemed in its own with the management of the waves.

The bottom line is the trend in guidance is what I said would probably happen yesterday...the colder wave will be deemphasized, and the larger one will trend warmer.

In the end, most folks in sne will not see much snow out of them.

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Bottom like is that it is way too early to say all rain, all snow, feet upon feet, days and days of snow....we just don't know yet and will not know for a few days. This set up is very complicated and conflicting.

Bryce knows. Newborns have awareness but can't verbalize it. Channel him nd you'll hVe a forecast.

:snowman:

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As Will has mentioned a few times, a lot depends on just how strong the cold push is this weekend and what kind of - if any - wave tries to develop along the boundary south of us Monday AM. That'll have an impact on the follow-up second system.

I.e. can the interior lock in a cold drain or does the low level flow gradually just bend E then SE and "use up" the cold

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Many in cne north. Will flat out said south of the pike may not like the run and it wasn't from lack of qpf!

Sunday looks more and more lik nuisance snows which means the real action is still d4+

Yes he did, We have some that read as far as it says cold and snow and don't read the rest of the post

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Yes he did, We have some that read as far as it says cold and snow and don't read the rest of the post

And the euro ensembles were warmer than the op which if this was the dead of winter would be a sultan of ct yellow flagger for worrying about a warmer solution.

If the first wave keeps coming in weaker the caa behind it will barely be strong enough to fuss the hair on Kevin's head setting the stage for a run on non-grounded toasters on eBay.

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Bottom like is that it is way too early to say all rain, all snow, feet upon feet, days and days of snow....we just don't know yet and will not know for a few days. This set up is very complicated and conflicting.

What we do know is that it's trending towards less snow....I know that angers some, but its reality.

Could that reverse, sure...but I wouldn't bet on it.

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And the euro ensembles were warmer than the op which if this was the dead of winter would be a sultan of ct yellow flagger for worrying about a warmer solution.

If the first wave keeps coming in weaker the caa behind it will barely be strong enough to fuss the hair on Kevin's head setting the stage for a run on non-grounded toasters on eBay.

Yeah, As i had mentioned in another place, I would prefer a stronger 1st wave as i could still cash from that and then from any follow up ones as well, All the emphasis has to be placed on this 1st one to really figure out what happens with the next one or ones

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