dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Feb 69, Jan 05, Feb 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yummy food. In the mall. Gotcha. Caught (birthday mall trip) wants cheesecake factory. Two things: I thing it's extra problematic that my zipper won't stay up and I'm in the American girl store. Secondly, why do they want $24-35 for a piece of rubber/plastic fir my phone??????? I'll findcheaper on line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 OoOops. Daughter's birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Euro ensembles are ugly for the 2nd storm all the way to the Canadian border. That one is pretty much toast for most of New England. Two main things went "wrong" in this system(s)...the cold push which had been trending better, trended back worse in the past 24-36 hours....and the shortwave to the west gained a lot more laittude on the models than previously. Those two combined factors hurt a lot. The airmass was not great to begin with but it was viable had those two things not worked in tandem to cause the warmer solution ultimately. Its happened plenty of times in the past with marginal airmasses and it will happen again. Marginal airmasses don't mean no snow...they just mean you are teetering on the edge...hence the word marginal. If they were completely hostile to snow, we would never bother thinking about snow in those setups. That said, storm 1 should have its interesting features to track with CAD and even a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Gotcha. Caught (birthday mall trip) wants cheesecake factory. Two things: I thing it's extra problematic that my zipper won't stay up and I'm in the American girl store. Secondly, why do they want $24-35 for a piece of rubber/plastic fir my phone??????? I'll findcheaper on line. lmao on first thing , prob funniest thing uve posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Hope folks toss gfs It's long range ate euros lunch for the upcoming system and probably the follow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well---I'm at the American girl store (ftl) at the natick mall (ft worse loss). This place is a total cluster--makes the ec look like a thing of beauty. Looks like it's still 37 at the pit. Toasty here in the big city. The Holyoke mall would have been a little closer to Shelburne. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well, I'm still planning on seeing a decent period of frozen precipitation here from storm #1 and enjoy it as best a weenie can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Maybe I post too much and my thoughts get lost, but let me be clear again. You can make fun of me all you want if nothing happens. After we flush this garbage out at the end of the week, we'll be able to have a much better shot at events. The stupid NAO block weakens and colder air eventually comes south. yep. i'd also watch that late week deal. i'm not sold that's a rainer yet. until then...meh. the hi-res 4k nam is pretty chilly in NH and N MA tomorrow...i don't know about much snow but still looks icy for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 yep. i'd also watch that late week deal. i'm not sold that's a rainer yet. until then...meh. the hi-res 4k nam is pretty chilly in NH and N MA tomorrow...i don't know about much snow but still looks icy for those areas. Yeah there is still time with that system for something other than rain, but I'm not banking on that at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 We puke this air out just in time for a White Christmas hopefully. Having number 2 cut sucks but sh it happens. A beautiful blanket of white snow for all on Christmas morning will be extra special for a lot of folks this year. Heavy hearts need some cheer, everyone loves snow on Christmas, hopefully some squalls and impulses like Will said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yeah there is still time with that system for something other than rain, but I'm not banking on that at the moment. yeah smart money is on liquid i agree. i just wonder if it gets squashed a bit. either way...pattern looks decent for a time beyond it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 It's long range ate euros lunch for the upcoming system and probably the follow up. Yep and that's why I'm cringing a little long term. If one went back a week or so the gfs had storm after storm riding up into marginal air. Still has that clear to 1/1. Until the PAC changes this pattern isn't changing and I think now we are looking at January and have to hope for a heights crashing snow bomb between now and then. December is toast otherwise. Just my opinion but I'd bet a dinner on it 12/22 or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Friday event may have a wintry appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yep and that's why I'm cringing a little long term. If one went back a week or so the gfs had storm after storm riding up into marginal air. Still has that clear to 1/1. Until the PAC changes this pattern isn't changing and I think now we are looking at January and have to hope for a heights crashing snow bomb between now and then. December is toast otherwise. Just my opinion but I'd bet a dinner on it 12/22 or bust just my $.02 but i don't think it looks that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 . Still has that clear to 1/1. . Just my opinion but I'd bet a dinner on it 12/22 or bust 12Z? GEFS? I am confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 just my $.02 but i don't think it looks that bad. 12/26-27 looks pretty decent synoptically, but a lot can change. I'm pretty down on 12/21 though...we'll need to see some changes over the next 2-3 days for that one to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Friday event may have a wintry appeal. Ryan by the way, thank you. I know that is the worst thing ever just thank you bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Will, the models are slowly going over towards the east on the 21-22nd storm system, showing it secondary and we are finally getting the PNA to go to neutral to positive in this period as it favors a snowstorm for someone, maybe NNE right now as it secondaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 12/26-27 looks pretty decent synoptically, but a lot can change. I'm pretty down on 12/21 though...we'll need to see some changes over the next 2-3 days for that one to come back. we could certainly get skunked through NYE but there are worse patterns we could be in i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 12Z? GEFS? I am confused I've done okay the last few years roughly looking at operational models at this range. Gefs/euro ens have been looking good for 3 weeks at 1-2 weeks It's my opinion. Will see come later Sunday but if 12/22 fails I think it's curtains until after 1/1 for major synoptic snows in a lot of sne as we repeat the pattern of poorly timed cold air. I may well be wrong and haven't given up on 12/22 and just after Xmas yet but again my opinion it's getting close to that point. Again just my opinion only. If fella was in a betting mood i am about ready to bet less than 1" in Boston thru 12/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Will, the models are slowly going over towards the east on the 21-22nd storm system, showing it secondary and we are finally getting the PNA to go to neutral to positive in this period as it favors a snowstorm for someone, maybe NNE right now as it secondaries. The 21st-22nd system is actually trending west/warmer the last couple days. Its still a ways out, so no need to nitpick, but its not looking great. The system this Tuesday that was once going to be a nice 50/50 anchor, just slides east as the whole height field isn't as impressive as it looked a couple days ago. We actually get a pretty decent airmass in here behind that one, and the height field finally gets crushed a bit...so the system just after Christmas holds promise. We'll see how everything evolves, because if there is one thing we can be certain of when talking about the long range....there will be some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 we could certainly get skunked through NYE but there are worse patterns we could be in i think. Persistence forecasting can be the way to go but sometimes it can bite ya. The Sunday storm seems to be warmer than first thought and the flow up much warmer, a persistence pattern for Dec. Those that rode that persistent train of thought will probably turn out to be right. I agree with you though, seems to change rather abruptly with a cold ULL dropping in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Ryan by the way, thank you. I know that is the worst thing ever just thank you bro. Thanks, Steve. I think we should set up a thread specifically for obs/discussion of tomorrow's wintry mix. Looks icy in the hills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Thanks, Steve. I think we should set up a thread specifically for obs/discussion of tomorrow's wintry mix. Looks icy in the hills! Timing? Foxboro flakes? wish it was a day thing, a nice long snowy ride into NMass/SnH would ease the soul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Looking at the NAM/GFS BUFKIT soundings I'm not sure there will be much snow at all tomorrow down here. May go straight -FZRA with dry air and little lift below -5c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Lovely... quite the mixed bag turning to rain and then back to snow. We may be able to end this with white on the ground if we can get any NW flow orographic enhancement with the CAA on the backside. Zone forecast: Sunday: Cloudy. Snow likely...mainly in the afternoon. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 70 percent. Sunday Night: Snow until midnight. Sleet. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Monday: Sleet or rain likely. Little or no additional sleet accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. Monday Night: Snow likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 70 percent. Tuesday: Rain with a chance of freezing rain in the morning. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of rain 80 percent. Tuesday Night: Rain or snow likely. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 huh? 10-14"?? Highest QPF amounts of snow I've seen are the nam with .7-.8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 12/26-27 looks pretty decent synoptically, but a lot can change. I'm pretty down on 12/21 though...we'll need to see some changes over the next 2-3 days for that one to come back. Just for shoots and giggles, 12/27/12 vs. Feb 78: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 huh? 10-14"?? Highest QPF amounts of snow I've seen are the nam with .7-.8... lol, That matched up with the 12z Nam, I highly doub't we see those totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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