Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 As are the chances for more ski area bankruptcies. What we are going to learn - if this pattern continues for much of the winter with little/no snow in the major cities particularly NYC south - is how reliant they all are on snow in the cities. They can make all the snow they want but if the masses don't motivate because they're out golfing that's not good. The talk was after the 10th winter would arrive with at least snow events..It doesn't matter. Rather than complain..I'll step away..Too many depressing events the last few days..wx being one of them but the least important You know it's bad when the consensus was around the 10th, heat miser hope killer (me) was around the 20th and it looks like everyone busted. the euro has 50s up to ORH tuesday I told you, been here long enough to know these first two were ugly. Tip posted a great paper about model cold biases as of late. Particularly with stale air that has already reached it's furthest southern point is a recipe for heart break. My hope is the series of disasters here lays down snow to our north and west which can begin to alter the pattern. The Pac rules the roost and it's still firing fastballs our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Some of the incredibly ridiculous analogs being thrown around did not help, they just added to the fire meanwhile the red taggers never wavered. They said time and time again, that the pattern offered chances but, those chances could turn wet not white. They never mentioned this period as a lock for winter weather, not once. I said two weeks ago that the pattern looked horrid. People were getting excited about a weak east-based NAO block when we have a roaring PAC Jet due to the +EPO as well as strong troughing in the west bringing snow down to central AZ and NM. The consensus was that winter wouldn't get going here until after the 20th, so why are people surprised that these early threats are rain? I know my climo favors rain heavily until about XMAS time, then things start to swing around....so I'm not worried about punting 2 weeks of December because as long as we close out the month with cold/snow chances remain for a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I said two weeks ago that the pattern looked horrid. People were getting excited about a weak east-based NAO block when we have a roaring PAC Jet due to the +EPO as well as strong troughing in the west bringing snow down to central AZ and NM. The consensus was that winter wouldn't get going here until after the 20th, so why are people surprised that these early threats are rain? I know my climo favors rain heavily until about XMAS time, then things start to swing around....so I'm not worried about punting 2 weeks of December because as long as we close out the month with cold/snow chances remain for a good winter. We've had many times where we were able to grab some snow in similar setups. Like anything in weather, sometimes you cash in, sometimes you don't. Any little difference in the height field or placement of a vortex or ridge means everything. I think a good idea for people to look at, is the H5 height fields and try not to read into the text values of the NAO,EPO, and look more at those features. Just cast aside the analog packages, but remember those packages features years with bad stretches. You have to look back at what all those years produced. It also reinforces how similar patterns can produce different results in a specific region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Euro shows some big severe potential for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 GFS really at rough glance just shows a rinse/repeat pattern through the end of the month. Not cold enough for snow, system after system cuts up over/near us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The Euro and euro ens had multiple snow events for us on the Wed 12z run. That's not that far out in time. 3 short days ago. It went from that to 5 soaking rainstorms into Canada. Something is wrong with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The Euro and euro ens had multiple snow events for us on the Wed 12z run. That's not that far out in time. 3 short days ago. It went from that to 5 soaking rainstorms into Canada. Something is wrong with that. Euro did have second wave as snow which we said may be wrong as the GEFS still were all over the place and spread was huge. Again, weenies falling in love with questionable patterns is their own fault. Myself, Ryan, Will, Phil all threw flags out. Lesson learned. GEFS didn't have the mid week storm that the euro ensembles had. At this point we were over 7 days out, an ETERNITY in the weather world, which again we stated firmly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Ya saki Its hard to have faith in calls for real cold and snow over a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Euro did have second wave as snow which we said may be wrong as the GEFS still were all over the place and spread was huge. Again, weenies falling in love with questionable patterns is their own fault. Myself, Ryan, Will, Phil all threw flags out. Lesson learned. GEFS didn't have the mid week storm that the euro ensembles had. At this point we were over 7 days out, an ETERNITY in the weather world, which again we stated firmly. The block was supposed to keep us marginal cold with at least mixed events..not 60 to ORH..Not that is what will happen..but this world, this atmosphere,,models..something just doesn't make sense. We lose a whole freaking month of winter now..and who knows what happens beyond in Jan and Feb.. I'm still holding out hope for snow for the holiday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Euro did have second wave as snow which we said may be wrong as the GEFS still were all over the place and spread was huge. Again, weenies falling in love with questionable patterns is their own fault. Myself, Ryan, Will, Phil all threw flags out. Lesson learned. GEFS didn't have the mid week storm that the euro ensembles had. At this point we were over 7 days out, an ETERNITY in the weather world, which again we stated firmly. Another lesson is not to take the Euro is the end all be all in every outcome. GFS did fairly well, even though it was tossed by many on a daily basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The block was supposed to keep us marginal cold with at least mixed events..not 60 to ORH..Not that is what will happen..but this world, this atmosphere,,models..something just doesn't make sense. We lose a whole freaking month of winter now..and who knows what happens beyond in Jan and Feb.. I'm still holding out hope for snow for the holiday The block can only work to help keep storms suppressed, which they are over the next two days, otherwise we would be in thongs. But 540 thicknesses just can't cut it. There is no cold, the Pacific did it to us. Blocks are not automatics for snow, see march 2010. They bascially say, ok...I'm gonna help keep this further south, but you deal with the airmass. Remember part of a block like that, is an ULL for confluence to the northeast. We only have a ridge there right now, we have no real confluence or 50/50 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 However, we would be in great shape if the airmass was a bit colder. Alas it is not, and this is the Pacific fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The block can only work to help keep storms suppressed, which they are over the next two days, otherwise we would be in thongs. But 540 thicknesses just can't cut it. There is no cold, the Pacific did it to us. Blocks are not automatics for snow, see march 2010. They bascially say, ok...I'm gonna help keep this further south, but you deal with the airmass. Remember part of a block like that, is an ULL for confluence to the northeast. We only have a ridge there right now, we have no real confluence or 50/50 low. And that missing confluence and the cold, dry high underneath it would help modify the airmass to our north and help. Meh meh meh. It's been a tough 24 hours at work. Haven't looked at much of anything... doing wx tonight though so will have to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 And that missing confluence and the cold, dry high underneath it would help modify the airmass to our north and help. Meh meh meh. It's been a tough 24 hours at work. Haven't looked at much of anything... doing wx tonight though so will have to catch up. Not much to catch on. 5 days of rain isn't hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The Euro and euro ens had multiple snow events for us on the Wed 12z run. That's not that far out in time. 3 short days ago. It went from that to 5 soaking rainstorms into Canada. Something is wrong with that. meteorology, not modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Our local 4km wrf model has a nice surge of colder sfc air coming down out of NH late sunday night/early monday. Verbatim, it's just below freezing at ORH all day Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Our local 4km wrf model has a nice surge of colder sfc air coming down out of NH late sunday night/early monday. Verbatim, it's just below freezing at ORH all day Monday. Our WRF does the same as the low leaves. Tucks colder air closer inside 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Our WRF does the same as the low leaves. Tucks colder air closer inside 495. Probably going to be close to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Eekster Is that cold air surge during or after precip for orh ne to ne mass, and is it in mid levels also. Much thks perhaps icing for hubb dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Heavy ice incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 And that missing confluence and the cold, dry high underneath it would help modify the airmass to our north and help. Meh meh meh. It's been a tough 24 hours at work. Haven't looked at much of anything... doing wx tonight though so will have to catch up. OT: Yikes, I can't imagine having to be in the newsroom environment yesterday. Brutal and draining I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well---I'm at the American girl store (ftl) at the natick mall (ft worse loss). This place is a total cluster--makes the ec look like a thing of beauty. Looks like it's still 37 at the pit. Toasty here in the big city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 OT: Yikes, I can't imagine having to be in the newsroom environment yesterday. Brutal and draining I'm sure. I was off but rushed into work around noon. Was in Newtown until midnight or so for our wall-to-wall coverage. Important to tell people's stories and get information out but it was undoubtedly the hardest day of my career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well---I'm at the American girl store (ftl) at the natick mall (ft worse loss). This place is a total cluster--makes the ec look like a thing of beauty. Looks like it's still 37 at the pit. Toasty here in the big city. Pf changs Go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Probably going to be close to reality. Yeah I mentioned yesterday it might cause them to start as ice again when round II comes knocking. Enjoy the snow and ice up there. I'm close to taking a ride up north to my folks cottage on the Lake, but too much going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I was off but rushed into work around noon. Was in Newtown until midnight or so for our wall-to-wall coverage. Important to tell people's stories and get information out but it was undoubtedly the hardest day of my career. I can't imagine what that was like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Pf changs Go ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 What are the current analogs for the tue-wed deal t (Anything to hope for?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 ??? Yummy food. In the mall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 What are the current analogs for the tue-wed deal t (Anything to hope for?) Feb 69, Jan 05, Feb 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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