Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well I don't think we can lose total faith but confidence these past 12-13 months has to have taken a hit. We've continually heard things are about to get better seemingly forever. I don't blame the forecasters, they are reliant on signals and model outputs that have proven to be very unreliable. I still have hope for the pre-xmas and just after xmas period. Other than that I see a return to mush around NYE. I think the weak enso signals combined with shorter wavelengths and an absolutely putrid Pac have really complicated things. Just goes to show how the Pac dominates the pattern most times if its ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 This bootleg cold and block was not match..........50s and rain in parts of sne with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 This is actually really deflating from a NNE perspective. Oh no, not you too! At this point I'm just sort of laughing at it all... crazy to think about folks that locked in the coldest solutions two days ago that showed days and days of snow so far south and east. Those runs that were so far SE they missed us completely up north, lol. It just really goes to show it is not worth the time to get excited about a threat until inside of like 72 hours. Not 144+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Brown Christmas chances increasing. As are the chances for more ski area bankruptcies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The euro even cuts the secondary up through the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 How about the 21st storm? or the one early next week? Any promise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Ski resorts need tues to be white. Period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 If I was in nne and raining tues I would tie the rope, this pattern busted for them if tues is a driving rainstorm, just unacceptable, and depressing type wx. Rain in stowe? Rain in berlin,nh?I'm still skeptical nne is a rainer tues! Man you guys are all losing it, lol. It will snow at some point... we'll all get ours. Its the holiday period, be thankful for what you've got. Its another beautiful sunny day right now on a white capped mountain. Really hard to get down about it. When its pouring on Tuesday, maybe I'll feel differently, haha. Thank god for snowmaking and being able to spend so much time on snow regardless of what nature wants to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Kevin we said this midweek deal was highly questionable. There is zero surprise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Oh no, not you too! At this point I'm just sort of laughing at it all... crazy to think about folks that locked in the coldest solutions two days ago that showed days and days of snow so far south and east. Those runs that were so far SE they missed us completely up north, lol. It just really goes to show it is not worth the time to get excited about a threat until inside of like 72 hours. Not 144+ hours. If I was in nne and raining tues I would tie the rope, this pattern busted for them if tues is a driving rainstorm, just unacceptable, and depressing type wx. Rain in stowe? Rain in berlin,nh?I'm still skeptical nne is a rainer tues! Yeah, I'm going to remain skeptical about rain at Sugarloaf, Jay, Stowe, etc. until it's actually falling. Enough of this nonsense talk of rain up to Quebec city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 How about the 21st storm? or the one early next week? Any promise? in nyc thread there was pretty good discussion how the trough looks to set up a bit too far west and leads to cutters or if we have strong blocking, then maybe something. I dunno man, this period just seems like its not workin out great. Watch it break into a mega torch for early jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Man you guys are all losing it, lol. It will snow at some point... we'll all get ours. Its the holiday period, be thankful for what you've got. Its another beautiful sunny day right now on a white capped mountain. Really hard to get down about it. When its pouring on Tuesday, maybe I'll feel differently, haha. Thank god for snowmaking and being able to spend so much time on snow regardless of what nature wants to do. There's still hope up there for the storm late next week. I haven't given up hope yet for here either, but it's not worth worrying about this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 It's ugly. Congrats Green Bay though. I know it has already been mentioned by some, but what is up with these short wavelengths? I noticed that. With respect to the first system, would a Miller B type scenario really only transfer from KBUF to KBDL? That primary is obnoxious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Kevin we said this midweek deal was highly questionable. There is zero surprise here. The talk was after the 10th winter would arrive with at least snow events..It doesn't matter. Rather than complain..I'll step away..Too many depressing events the last few days..wx being one of them but the least important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Upon us all a little rain must fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 The talk was after the 10th winter would arrive with at least snow events..It doesn't matter. Rather than complain..I'll step away..Too many depressing events the last few days..wx being one of them but the least important Take the family north to Santa's Village after this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Oh no, not you too! At this point I'm just sort of laughing at it all... crazy to think about folks that locked in the coldest solutions two days ago that showed days and days of snow so far south and east. Those runs that were so far SE they missed us completely up north, lol. It just really goes to show it is not worth the time to get excited about a threat until inside of like 72 hours. Not 144+ hours. Yeah, I mean it's laughable at this point, but its really sickening to have this much promise, just to end up this mild even with this set up. Oh well. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 the euro has 50s up to ORH tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Upon us all a little rain must fall... rain makes the corn..........corn makes the whisky.........whisky makes my blizzy a little bit frisky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Kevin we said this midweek deal was highly questionable. There is zero surprise here. The issue is folks just lock stuff in at obscene lead times... and the amount of model data available out to obscene lead times gets in the head when there are favorable solutions out there. Of course after watching a storm for like 10-12 days there's going to be *some* model runs that show a favorable snowy solution. Then we use those very snowy solutions as a benchmark to compare every other model run too. It would be the same if this thing went to Bermuda... everyone would be moaning cause no one would get any snow. I'm pretty sure everyone was still saying over the past few days that the cone of possiblities was essentially Buffalo to Bermuda. Looks like its closer to BUF than Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Maybe I post too much and my thoughts get lost, but let me be clear again. You can make fun of me all you want if nothing happens. After we flush this garbage out at the end of the week, we'll be able to have a much better shot at events. The stupid NAO block weakens and colder air eventually comes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The euro even cuts the secondary up through the Hudson Valley. That would be joyless. It would probably be raining on top of Mt Washington if that were the case. At least it would be good fodder for an entertaining, dark irony post from Tip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The issue is folks just lock stuff in at obscene lead times... and the amount of model data available out to obscene lead times gets in the head when there are favorable solutions out there. Of course after watching a storm for like 10-12 days there's going to be *some* model runs that show a favorable snowy solution. Then we use those very snowy solutions as a benchmark to compare every other model run too. It would be the same if this thing went to Bermuda... everyone would be moaning cause no one would get any snow. I'm pretty sure everyone was still saying over the past few days that the cone of possiblities was essentially Buffalo to Bermuda. Looks like its closer to BUF than Bermuda. Truth. We also mentioned the caveats too, but those fall on deaf weenie ears. I admit, the 10th just didn't work out, but we also mentioned why and discussed the details as the time approached. Many times, this block works out and we saw the key players there, so it's not a bad fail. These are the features that many times give us snow, but the Pacific side just killed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I will say..I have lost 100% faith in any long range forecasting. you set yourself up for letdowns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Powderfreak,u will be singin a diff tune on tues when the trees are all green (if tues is as the euro shows today), I hope ur trees are all white btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 rain makes the corn..........corn makes the whisky.........whisky makes my blizzy a little bit frisky This post, paired with your avatar disturbs me slightly. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 the euro has 50s up to ORH tuesday Whatever falls will melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Some of the incredibly ridiculous analogs being thrown around did not help, they just added to the fire meanwhile the red taggers never wavered. They said time and time again, that the pattern offered chances but, those chances could turn wet not white. They never mentioned this period as a lock for winter weather, not once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I like ampeds posts but scolling thru that long signature is a pain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 That was ugly, I will wait until 0z to throw the towel in on wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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