mitchnick Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 NAM is much flatter...just look at the height lines out ahead of the system. This is due to the GFS having a really involved 2nd s/w. Toggle those two: http://www.meteo.psu...N_0z/avn84.html http://www.meteo.psu...F_0z/wrf84.html to my weenie eyes, they both had the surface just west of the GL, the 0 line at 850 are real, real close and precip signature about as close as you can get at 84 hrs away on 2 diff models at least that's what I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Rain for even PF on this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Ouch We really need some cold air We have cold air. Pretty clear on the day 3 surface chart. But it gets dislodged because of the evolution of the mid and upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 anti-gradient pattern, its a uniform torch realative to the means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Not to be a b**ch, but this thread is for system 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 anti-gradient pattern, its a uniform torch realative to the means Except it actually is a gradient pattern for system 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GFS has rain for everyone south of Tooterville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Another horrible solution by the GFS outside of Maine. Not really even close. Just disgusting. It might be difficult for the other models to hold the line. The look of the midwestern primary is awefully persuasive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Except it actually is a gradient pattern for system 1. not really the graident really weakens as the storm moves in, the timing is not good. The high retreats to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Weenies need to wait for the 00 suite though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The sky is falling in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 not really the graident really weakens as the storm moves in, the timing is not good. The high retreats to the NW. That is pretty much true of every gradient storm we have. This solution overcomes the cold fairly easily with the shortwaves to the west very amplified. So it is a quick snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 not really the graident really weakens as the storm moves in, the timing is not good. The high retreats to the NW. Not exactly. Your kind of making it up as you go along.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 The sky is falling in the other thread. I'm watching Ted. The movie is only slightly more ridiculous than some of what's been going on the last few days. Gfs is a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 LOL at cold air advection into BOS from the SOUTHEAST at 150hrs. Ugliest solution possible outside of Northern Maine on the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Shortwave number 1 actually loops up into James Bay...The Euro never lets it get north of the US/Can border. That is the biggest difference between the two on the first sytem. There is also some extra interaction with wave #2 here by the GFS. But with wave number one looping straight up to the west like that, the cold air has really no chance and the advection is pretty weak initially. So there really isn't much precip while the cold air is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Im watching it tomorrow cant wait lol I'm watching Ted. The movie is only slightly more ridiculous than some of what's been going on the last few days. Gfs is a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That is pretty much true of every gradient storm we have. This solution overcomes the cold fairly easily with the shortwaves to the west very amplified. So it is a quick snow to rain. we have had many graident storms in the past where the high gets traped and doesnt retreat, even with the primary over Chicago or Detroit. Even if the cold just gets locked at the low levels and we get sleet or zr. The psuedo 50/50 low is too far NE and while there is blocking, its not a classic west based NAO. Combined those factors with the powerhouse pac jet and displaced PV, its not a great look for snow anywhere in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 well i postponed my trip to NH for sometime next week. i want the flexibility to either watch this unfold from wakefield, ma or n. conway/intervale nh area. 0z gfs absolutely crushes saddleback and sugarloaf maine, (less at SRiver) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 we have had many graident storms in the past where the high gets traped and doesnt retreat, even with the primary over Chicago or Detroit. Even if the cold just gets locked at the low levels and we get sleet or zr. The psuedo 50/50 low is too far NE and while there is blocking, its not a classic west based NAO. Combined those factors with the powerhouse pac jet and displaced PV, its not a great look for snow anywhere in the NE. I agree its not a "great look". But it doesn't have to be to get snow. What did you call the Euro? It never let the -4C 850 line get N of the NH/MA border in this event. Its very possible to get snow in this pattern. It also might fail, That's been repeatedly said today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 I agree its not a "great look". But it doesn't have to be to get snow. What did you call the Euro? It never let the -4C 850 line get N of the NH/MA border in this event. Its very possible to get snow in this pattern. It also might fail, That's been repeatedly said today. yes the euro is a better look and we still have a few days before the 1st wave, hopefully the trends of the past few gfs runs abate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Im watching it tomorrow cant wait lol It's pretty funny. I'm in good shape on the new gfs. I get several hours of backlash snows at 150 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That was pretty fugly on the whole... even that first event was really warm. I sort of expect a warm solution from something really amped up, but if that first event is warm... good luck on the second one. Some other December's with real cold air around, the 0C H85 temps being modeled, would be -10C in other storms, with 0C much closer to the actual low. Then we really would be looking at a really sweet time on the whole for most on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 lets see what the GEFS say. seems like gfs likes idea of monday precip with heavy ribbon in N of pike into Southern vt/nh/sw maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 That was pretty fugly on the whole... even that first event was really warm. I sort of expect a warm solution from something really amped up, but if that first event is warm... good luck on the second one. Some other December's with real cold air around, the 0C H85 temps being modeled, would be -10C in other storms, with 0C much closer to the actual low. Then we really would be looking at a really sweet time on the whole for most on here. Ggem putting more toast in the tub too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Ggem putting more toast in the tub too excellent, how is it for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 GGEM is much colder...thicknesses suggest all frozen except maybe far southenr CT/RI. GGEM is also going with the idea of keeping two shortwaves seperate. I think it is going to try and go hyper with the 2nd shortwave like it did at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Yeah CMC stays the course.....as does GFS. Will Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 Even with the GFS solution...I still pull off an advisory event of snow on Monday...and that seems like worse case scenario pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 excellent, how is it for NNE. Fine. It's about 20mb weaker than the earlier run. Ends up with another low at 995 in Illinois on Wednesday. It's okay cne and nne. But it's the ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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