HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 BOX has a pretty thorough AFD up this morning Icing still on the table. Shoutout to CIPS analogs. Funny Dec 1992 wasn't mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Hoping the Tues event is drier than we earlier thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I'm less concerned with the BL than the temps aloft. I don't see much of an impetus to scour out the low level cold behind the first wave, so I'm expecting cold air to remain stuck against the mountains. Problem is that the second wave follows so quickly that there is no CAA in the mid levels, and we're left with a truly stale air mass. It's all a question of how quickly we can get the secondary to crash those heights back towards the coast. Yes 850 gets warm and close @925 need that 2nd wave to get going sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 congrats, Jeff--looks like fun. Post pictures for us weenies stuck on the sidelines! Thanks Mike, we will see how it plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well at least i get my ice ...And I do think it's going to stay ice for a very long time UTILIZING CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE FROM SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY...NEARLY ALL OF THE ANALOGS EVENTS /15 IN TOTAL/ SIMILAR TO 15.0Z NAM EXHIBITED A SUBSTANTIAL NUMBER OF FREEZING RAIN OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COLD AIR DAMMING IS DEFINITELY APPARENT IN MANY OF THEM AS WELL...WITH THE SE COASTAL PLAIN SCOURED OUT QUICKLY...WHILE THE INTERIOR REMAINS AT OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. THE BEST ANALOG EVENT IN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED AROUND DECEMBER 9TH 1986 WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOWS WERE ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND...HEAVIER PRECIP WAS S OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A MAJORITY OF NEW ENGLAND SOME FREEZING RAIN AT SOME POINT. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH ICE ACCRETION OCCURRED. WITH THE POINTS RAISED ABOVE...FEEL THE EVENT IS MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BELIEVE A WATCH IS WARRANTED CRITERIA BEING 6" SNOW AND/OR 0.5 INCHES OF ICE ACCRETION. WHILE WINTER WX ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY NEEDED FOR 3RD AND 4TH PERIODS BASED ON THE LATEST FCST...WILL ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ADDRESS ACCORDINGLY WITH UPDATED FCST INFORMATION AND PUBLISH AS THEY SEE FIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Where is the Reverend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Enjoy your snow up north boys, this system played out pretty much as the red taggers thought. Take lots of pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Euro's got rain changing to snow Tuesday.. Fridays' storm looks colder profile wise. Think we may be able to pull weenie out of a hat on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Not much doubt we are in for a wintery week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 anyone have any thoights for snow amounts here in southern Nh Manchester area I have seen anywhere forecatse from 1 ich up to 8?? ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Not much doubt we are in for a wintery week Up there, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Euro is not rain to snow, it has a little weenie patch of QPF afterwards, but how often does that work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 anyone have any thoights for snow amounts here in southern Nh Manchester area I have seen anywhere forecatse from 1 ich up to 8?? ugh I would think 3-4" is a good call for that area. If things break right, maybe more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Up there, yeah. Looks like you have a shot next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Looks like you have a shot next weekend I'm not holding my breath with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I'm not holding my breath with that one. Well the potential is there if things play out right, just the fact there are multiple threats trumps last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 BOX has a pretty thorough AFD up this morning Icing still on the table. Shoutout to CIPS analogs. Funny Dec 1992 wasn't mentioned sleepless night, ugh. You do not even want to know what the top 120 hr analog on the Cips site is, it ain't 92 but oh my. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Euro is not rain to snow, it has a little weenie patch of QPF afterwards, but how often does that work out. Chance is there. All we can ask TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS TIME FRAME. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND SLOWLY M0VE EAST OF THE REGION. IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE ARE JUST DEALING WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND MUCH OF THE TIME ENDS UP DRY. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM AND ITS WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL CENTERS ARE LOCATED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH WE COULD GET INTO A DEFORMATION ZONE. IN THAT CASE...RAIN COULD EVEN CHANGE OVER TO A PERIOD OF SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Hoping the Tues event is drier than we earlier thought Why? For later impacts on Thur/Fri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 anyone have any thoights for snow amounts here in southern Nh Manchester area I have seen anywhere forecatse from 1 ich up to 8?? ugh BOX AFD presents it well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Euro is not rain to snow, it has a little weenie patch of QPF afterwards, but how often does that work out. Thanks for keeping it real, as much as it sucks. Hows Bryce? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 06 NAM looking more favorable for SNH/northern MA area for snow about 60 hrs in (18Z Mon). Precip was upped as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I'm encouraged that Albany has ZR in the forecast for Williamstown. I thought (and continue to suspect) that I'm too far west for any prolonged freezing. But, Hubb Dave through areas like Templeton-Ashburnham, up toward Nashua should have a fairly decent ice situation. Nothing damaging, but enough to keep things looking pretty and untreated roads dicey--or icey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 I hope it is not too crusty, but maybe it can make whatever I get last longer... (in a non-snow related context, that would sound gross) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I'm encouraged that Albany has ZR in the forecast for Williamstown. I thought (and continue to suspect) that I'm too far west for any prolonged freezing. But, Hubb Dave through areas like Templeton-Ashburnham, up toward Nashua should have a fairly decent ice situation. Nothing damaging, but enough to keep things looking pretty and untreated roads dicey--or icey. There's going to be a good amount of ice for all of the interior..You may never get above 32. fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 NAM is crazy for Jeffafa and Maineiacs, GFS not so much but still decent. Whats the Euro got for those guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 06 NAM looking more favorable for SNH/northern MA area for snow about 60 hrs in (18Z Mon). Precip was upped as well. Agreed. Curious as to what it's doing at the end of it's run--and trying to extrapolate just beyond--with respect to wintry possibilities in northern/western areas. Even if it can't hit the broadside of a barn at that point, perhaps it's at least pointing to a barn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Scooter needs to take Bryce on a road trip to the lake house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 There's going to be a good amount of ice for all of the interior..You may never get above 32. fyi Meh on the ice.... 0.05" sounds reasonable... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 There's going to be a good amount of ice for all of the interior..You may never get above 32. fyi My initial response is, "Yes, I will", but what time frame are you ending at? Based on your answer to that, I will wager a Diet Coke vs. the beer of your choice at the next GTG. We'll use my station as the goal-post. KMASHELB3 http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KMASHELB3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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