dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 H85 is kind of toasty on the nam for MA just ahead of the precip as it moves in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yeah I'll be in Lowell when this happens...may start out as rain then flip to snow during Sunday night then mix up ending as rain towards the AM. Depends on where that H85 line decides to settle. SFC temps same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 These last 12 months remind me how I felt back in the 80s when we got more than 6" of snow. It felt like a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 It's a good reality check to the robust years we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Safe to say I'm hoping wave two pulls a miracle lol, nam looks hot for ct!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well--my daughter's 8-year old birthday/slumber party's going on. My daughter went to another room and went to sleep. Her guests are still awake and driving me out of my skull!! AAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WRT to the system, I still say, meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 It's a good reality check to the robust years we've had. LR still favorable? Seems like an impossible feat just to get 3-6" in a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2012 Author Share Posted December 15, 2012 Well--my daughter's 8-year old birthday/slumber party's going on. My daughter went to another room and went to sleep. Her guests are still awake and driving me out of my skull!! AAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WRT to the system, I still say, meh. Give them all shawls and some coffee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Give them all shawls and some coffee LOL. One kid bailed and her dad picked her up. Another one (one of twins) just came down and she wants to go home, too. Is it a slumber party if everyone goes home before they fall asleep? GFS continues the bleh look for most of SNE with #1--a bit of cold air to work with at the start. Toasters for all on round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The event beginning 144hours in this GFS run is a lot more frozen/freezing than some may think - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The event beginning 144hours in this GFS run is a lot more frozen/freezing than some may think - Cold air barreling towards the coast. It has a ton of potential and will probably bring many a white xmas. There's not even a hint yet of it dulling out and I don't think it will as it actually has cold air with it. Rain to snow, TBD on how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The event beginning 144hours in this GFS run is a lot more frozen/freezing than some may think - One GFS model run a week out but a definite improvement over the 18Z at least for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 s.w 2 is another 850 torch N of canadian border for all of vt/nh then 850 line dips down along nh/maine (border) literally for enuf time to give S.R a bit of a dump but it even changes over there up to sugarloaf by hr 96. DISASTAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I think we can all say that south of the pike is 90% dead for Sunday-Monday timeframe. The 22nd is pretty close to a big snowstorm here though verbatim...get that 850 freezing line a little south and east and that's a 1-2' snowstorm verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I think we can all say that south of the pike is 90% dead for Sunday-Monday timeframe. The 22nd is pretty close to a big snowstorm here though verbatim...get that 850 freezing line a little south and east and that's a 1-2' snowstorm verbatim. you sure that wouldn't be a sleet storm with a warm layer around 8H , that is some rippin SE flow @850 it honestly doesn't look that good to me, even looks a bit strange to have 0c 850 that cold, with the low position and no quebec high locking in much cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 0z Ukie transfers the low near the Cape for the 18th storm http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 0z Ukie transfers the low near the Cape for the 18th storm http://meteocentre.c...&fixhh=1&hh=096 ya maybe that is a very broad pressure field, VT and Nh and maine are the one's on the edge of 0c 850 for second storm which seems to bring alot more qpf then third Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Hey Will - you should whip out your stats sheet and tabulate up the snowiest top 20 winters in history (regionally), and then see how much snow fell in those years before January 1 This question piqued my curiosity, so I took a quick look through xmACIS for BOS, ORH and HFD ThreadEX sties. A big early season was not a necessity for big overall season. Double digit totals before Jan 1st obviously helped the cause, but there were winters > 90" at ORH with under 10" before Jan 1. There were at least an even split of dud Decembers in there too for all sites. Some with as much as 45" others near 5". The key was really getting at least one cool season month to double or triple the long term averages (one of which was almost always Jan or Feb). Probably nothing earth shattering there, but moral of the story is no one should be punting winter yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I still think the period after the 20th is interesting looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 actually lookin at 0z nam (as it gets closer to it's accurate range) shows NE mass a bit snowier and 850 c a bit further s in NE mass. Puts ray on border of 3 inch snows with 4-5 not far away. basically bears watching still for a front end thump in my area up thru ray and esp. by andover/methuen etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 The event beginning 144hours in this GFS run is a lot more frozen/freezing than some may think - Unfortunately considering the projected wavelengths, the longwave trof axis once again looks to set up pretty far west. That spells nasty midwestern primary. Not impossible to pull if off, but odds favor an outcome like the one we're currently facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 lol 3 peeps for euro. the euro ticked colder on Mid levels for mass for hr 48 (mon 0z) wonder if there is a qpf burst for us in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Unfortunately considering the projected wavelengths, the longwave trof axis once again looks to set up pretty far west. That spells nasty midwestern primary. Not impossible to pull if off, but odds favor an outcome like the one we're currently facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 by tues nite still looks torchy in mid levels all thru vt nh and maine (cept near jackman, houlton , caribou) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 EC ens are a little cooler and SE of the op for the 18-19th. The 22nd system looks like it'll be another living on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Watches are up here prelim 5-9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Watches are up here prelim 5-9" I probably could have held off on the watch, but at that point I would just be punting to the day shift for the sake of punting. I'm 50/50 that we hit 6" in 12 hours or 9" in 24, so why not pull the trigger and get word out. The hardest part was really determining the cutoff between one event and the next right behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 I probably could have held off on the watch, but at that point I would just be punting to the day shift for the sake of punting. I'm 50/50 that we hit 6" in 12 hours or 9" in 24, so why not pull the trigger and get word out. The hardest part was really determining the cutoff between one event and the next right behind it. Yes, the gap has closed between the 2, like to see the trends of subtle shifts further SE with that 2nd wave Bl could be a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Yes, the gap has closed between the 2, like to see the trends of subtle shifts further SE with that 2nd wave Bl could be a problem I'm less concerned with the BL than the temps aloft. I don't see much of an impetus to scour out the low level cold behind the first wave, so I'm expecting cold air to remain stuck against the mountains. Problem is that the second wave follows so quickly that there is no CAA in the mid levels, and we're left with a truly stale air mass. It's all a question of how quickly we can get the secondary to crash those heights back towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Watches are up here prelim 5-9" congrats, Jeff--looks like fun. Post pictures for us weenies stuck on the sidelines! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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