Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 18z NAM less moist again and a nudge colder as they obviously go hand in hand. That model sucks. Looks more like the Euro with the redevelopment way offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 NAM backin goff on the qpf bomb idea is pretty reasonable considering other guidance isn't trying to lay down an inch of qpf over a chunk of New England in event #1. NAM looks like it would be a torch in event #2. At least in the mid-levels initially. Miserable cold rain with the sfc low redevelopiong east of ACY. The hope is that the storm rapidly bombs and gets to occlusion point so it would at least give a period of snow during the late stages. Definitely for the ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXheights Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Haha I'm pretty even and have mastered a decent ability to detach emotions from weather. It just is what it is. Skiing has still been pretty darn good lately as far as I'm concerned, all things considered. Looks like winter, too. Hard to have a melt down staring at this every single day (photo from today). Its always winter in the highest elevations, lol. Wish that extended down to Valley floor -- Stick season on the other side of the mountains from you PF Dont recall seeing so much of that in December - start of winter not talking Jan thaw previous torches just start -- hate to do the hit and run - gotta go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 18z NAM appears destined to a dramatic solution just beyond 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 18z NAM appears destined to a dramatic solution just beyond 84 hours. Yeah but ML warmth is still pushing north 81 to 84. Plus it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Since nobody has touched on this, the EURO ens of Allan's site have wave 2's secondary over LI...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 regarding hr 96 (2'nd wave) 12z euro ens cooler for CNE/NNE . basically 0c 850 runs rutland-lebanon-rochester,nh-portland maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Since nobody has touched on this, the EURO ens of Allan's site have wave 2's secondary over LI...thoughts? Still not bad verbatim for NNE, but its trending quickly in the wrong direction. Having a flatter more insignificant first wave definitely hurts. If this first event was like it had been shown a couple days ago with a pretty potent mid-level center developing as it moves SE of New England, then this second event could have had something to work with...a lowered height field and subsequent better airmass. But with "storm" 1 sort of just weakening as it heads ENE and no real height fall behind it...we are left with this really nice shortwave and low with plenty of moisture to work with but also no resistance to being an ugly rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 So the general vibe I'm getting after today's runs is that for most of SNE --- event 1 and event 2 will be mostly if not all rain (except maybe a brief period of light snow, some accum in ORH on SUN) Maybe we can get a more favorable setup next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 BOX has a little map... makes me feel good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 THERE IS MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW TO THE NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXCEED 4 INCHES...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN. HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCRETION ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES/WORCESTER HILLS AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE TRANSITION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Wish that extended down to Valley floor -- Stick season on the other side of the mountains from you PF Dont recall seeing so much of that in December - start of winter not talking Jan thaw previous torches just start -- hate to do the hit and run - gotta go. Well there's nothing on the ground in town here on the other side of the Worcester Range ridgeline...think most are in the same boat. We haven't even really had any strong FROPAs or CAA for upslope snow except for that arctic front/upslope combo two weeks ago that laid down 4-7" in the valleys and up to a foot on the Spine. We can't even nickel and dime in this pattern with no real energy moving overhead and no various advection processes with wind. Its just stale air and high pressure, followed by warm-ups and rain. Then repeat. I wish we could even get some solid CAA to get the upslope machine kicking... very similar to Lake Effect where those areas haven't seen anything either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Still not bad verbatim for NNE, but its trending quickly in the wrong direction. Having a flatter more insignificant first wave definitely hurts. If this first event was like it had been shown a couple days ago with a pretty potent mid-level center developing as it moves SE of New England, then this second event could have had something to work with...a lowered height field and subsequent better airmass. But with "storm" 1 sort of just weakening as it heads ENE and no real height fall behind it...we are left with this really nice shortwave and low with plenty of moisture to work with but also no resistance to being an ugly rainstorm. Yeah there is absolutely zero CAA after the first storm with such a weak secondary response. A couple days ago when that was stronger (as you said), it at least bled some cold air down behind that first wave, giving New England at least a shot at a significant snowfall. Instead, behind that first system we are left with a stationary front that quickly goes to a warm front as the next system approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 So the general vibe I'm getting after today's runs is that for most of SNE --- event 1 and event 2 will be mostly if not all rain (except maybe a brief period of light snow, some accum in ORH on SUN) Maybe we can get a more favorable setup next weekend. Yes that's the general consensus. There's very little hope now barring a miracle for the first two in SNE especially south of the Pike. AIT Remember forky getting slammed for lack of dynamics this weekend/early next week? Anyway, next weekend has far more potential. It should save a white xmas for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Pickles hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yes that's the general consensus. There's very little hope now barring a miracle for the first two in SNE especially south of the Pike. AIT Remember forky getting slammed for lack of dynamics this weekend/early next week? Anyway, next weekend has far more potential. It should save a white xmas for many. Wow... that's disgustingly awesome. Too bad its another day 7-8 threat, lol. 18z GFS... that first primary low just keeps going further west. Its like over Lake Michigan now instead of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Wow... that's disgustingly awesome. Too bad its another day 7-8 threat, lol. 18z GFS... that first primary low just keeps going further west. Its like over Lake Michigan now instead of Lake Ontario. It's so far west it takes the energy forever to cross the coast and by then the precip and mid level warmth have done their things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 where is the block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 where is the block? It's there. The reason why we won't be in the 50s for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 It's possible wave 2 could at least begin as elevated icing in the typical prone areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 It's possible wave 2 could at least begin as elevated icing in the typical prone areas. This is a look away I'm hideous type of disaster this last 12 hours. Low develops over Cleveland. We went from wondering how much snow Kevin was going to get to how much snow southern Canada may get. This pattern sucks, it just sucks differently than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 It's possible wave 2 could at least begin as elevated icing in the typical prone areas. Great news:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This should not be surprising unless you were swept up in a weenie state of love by the euro the other day. Remember when I said it loves to give exotic solutions sometimes beyond day 7. The second and third lows we're highly questionable in terms of how they develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 14, 2012 Author Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yayyyy! Minor ice before rain But what are you gonna do. Bad Decembers happen to good weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This should not be surprising unless you were swept up in a weenie state of love by the euro the other day. Remember when I said it loves to give exotic solutions sometimes beyond day 7. The second and third lows we're highly questionable in terms of how they develop. Yup...it's fun to look at and weenie fodder, but when we're in regular season or postseason mode in the subforum we don't obsess as much about threats past d4-5.Looks like a lot of the snow I get will wash away. Let's get some legit cold in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yayyyy! Minor ice before rain But what are you gonna do. Bad Decembers happen to good weenies Yeah well we had been spoiled absolutely rotten for Decembers recently...so not a shocker if we end up with two duds in a row. This one is far from over however. We'll prob get a bit of snow Sunday and then who knows after that toward Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 This is actually quite a lot like Dec 1996 right now...except the marginal snow bomb isn't happening...at least yet. We had two more bombs that month...one was a sickening 37F rainstorm and the other was a torching cutter. Maybe we'll get those first this time and the snow bomb after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Yup...it's fun to look at and weenie fodder, but when we're in regular season or postseason mode in the subforum we don't obsess as much about threats past d4-5. Looks like a lot of the snow I get will wash away. Let's get some legit cold in here. We say this everytime, but it falls on deaf ears for some. We all love winter and sometimes we let our desires get in the way, but boy is 7 days an eternity in the weather world. It's important to remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Well--earlier in the week I thought if I didn't get all my wood cut/split before Sunday, it wouldn't happen until April. Well, I diddn't get it done (not even close!). And, I have more than a week to still work it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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