Dec 16-20 Snow/Mix events - Going over like a fart in church

[Alpha5]

Unfortunately that 'big time cold' has been 8-10 days away, for the last month....

Yes, but this time there is teleconnection support. The PNA looks to go positive big time with a mean ridge position over Boise, ID. Just were we want it. Furthermore, we do have some blocking downstream of us which certainly helps. While the pattern is not perfect, it is much improved from what we have been seeing the past couple of weeks

[moneypitmike]

Prayers to all in Newtown. I don't give a crap about whether it snows, ices or rains. I want my daughter to get home from school so I can hug her instead.

[eduggs]

With regards to Sunday/Monday, I think most folks north and east of like BTV-LEB stay snow (per 850mb)...I don't have access to vertical profiles on the Euro. Looks like a 2-4" deal, not much more.

With wave 2, the way operational guidance has been performing, I wouldn't be surprised if it shifts a lot by 0z. 12z ECM ensembles will give either hope, or solidify a warmer scenario IMO.

The resorts are obviously still in play for storm 1. It doesn't take much to keep them mostly snow. But the NH resorts definitely look better for Sunday/Monday. And best guess at this point says mixing gets pretty far north in VT.

Contrary to the Euro solution, I think the resorts have a good chance with wave 2, with some combination of frontside, wraparound, or upslope. The stale airmass is mostly a problem for the lower elevations. Above 2k cools fairly quickly and mid-levels will likely crash with a strong coastal low.

[WXheights]

With regards to Sunday/Monday, I think most folks north and east of like BTV-LEB stay snow (per 850mb)...I don't have access to vertical profiles on the Euro. Looks like a 2-4" deal, not much more.

With wave 2, the way operational guidance has been performing, I wouldn't be surprised if it shifts a lot by 0z. 12z ECM ensembles will give either hope, or solidify a warmer scenario IMO.

Like your 2-4 may a little less valley floors. Little more up top but geez. The ECM ope rationals have been trending warmer each model run. We'll see if the dance goes right up into Canada or comes back a bit.

Attachment is for Tuesday 7 AM after Monday's 2-4 - Sucks

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah even if storm 2 rips the 0C line north of the border...the mountains of VT will clean up very quickly on the backside...the ML temps occlude pretty quickly as well. There's a pretty strong inverted trough as the ULL deepens over New England..so even lower spots and further south could get some snow during that period.

It would be nice if the 2nd low ends up further east and colder though.

[ctsnowstorm628]

Like your 2-4 may a little less valley floors. Little more up top but geez. The ECM ope rationals have been trending warmer each model run. We'll see if the dance goes right up into Canada or comes back a bit.

Attachment is for Tuesday 7 AM after Monday's 2-4 - Sucks

Yeah after that panel it warms up significantly aloft. It's probably still snow in zones 7 and 9 at that snap shot in time. Verbatim probably a few inches in NE VT over to ZR then rain. Wouldn't put too much stock in this depiction verbatim, but its a warm trend for sure.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

We're at the point where we understand the consequences/cause/effect of the MJO etc. We are NOT at the point where modeled forecasts for those things are sufficiently accurate to really nail down longer term patterns.

That's my take away from the past month.

[WXheights]

If this is who I think it is, I've read your forecasts many times and greatly respect you as a met. Hope you will post here more often.

The bold part is a little much though, honestly no offense meant.

None taken - But I mean everything said sorry OT. -PDO (+) some% AGW killing the start of winter here never seen this, been here in VT since 86.

[Typhoon Tip]

watch that Euro D8 deal end up under LI and THAT becomes the big player - not that storm 2....

It's actually even hard to separate storm 1 and 2 on this Euro run. They almost like like the same event, just happening to have a warm frontal wave (late Sunday) out ahead of storm 2.

I still say it is quite possible that regardless of aloft the lower 100 to 200 mb may end up with cold'ish profiles for much of the region ... throughout system one and "two".

[Mr Torchey]

where is the block?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

None taken - But I mean everything said sorry OT. -PDO (+) some% AGW killing the start of winter here never seen this, been here in VT since 86.

It doesn't even "feel" like winter anymore. I'm looking out the window over the ocean and it looks like an early May day. It's 49/50 here, it's juts so odd.

[butterfish55]

Prayers to all in Newtown. I don't give a crap about whether it snows, ices or rains. I want my daughter to get home from school so I can hug her instead.

This.

My son is in kindergarten. Just heard about what happened an I'm so sad for those parents. Could have been my family and that's terrifying.

Don't forget what's important.

[N. OF PIKE]

Is powderfreak on meltdown watch next?

[Typhoon Tip]

It doesn't even "feel" like winter anymore. I'm looking out the window over the ocean and it looks like an early May day. It's 49/50 here, it's juts so odd.

Nothing compared to last year

[ctsnowstorm628]

Is powderfreak on meltdown watch next?

Nah. I think he will do fine...and he gets wave 1 pretty no matter what. Wave 2 might suck.

[Typhoon Tip]

Mega bomb, Christmas 2012

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Nothing compared to last year

retrospective look that includes last year. But it doesn't feel like winter these last two years. It's weird and extends beyond temps. It's a hazy sky over the ocean right now like we get in May from humidity.

Every day I wake up and it's mild I think of the heavyset kid in get him to the greek when he says "why does this keep happening to me"...if you've seen the movie you'll understand the reference.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hey Will - you should whip out your stats sheet and tabulate up the snowiest top 20 winters in history (regionally), and then see how much snow fell in those years before January 1

[Ginx snewx]

Wish I had looked at the Euro myself instead of reading some posts here

[Typhoon Tip]

retrospective look that includes last year. But it doesn't feel like winter these last two years. It's weird and extends beyond temps. It's a hazy sky over the ocean right now like we get in May from humidity.

Every day I wake up and it's mild I think of the heavyset kid in get him to the greek when he says "why does this keep happening to me"...if you've seen the movie you'll understand the reference.

then you'll love this story: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012JD018137.shtml

[radarman]

None taken - But I mean everything said sorry OT. -PDO (+) some% AGW killing the start of winter here never seen this, been here in VT since 86.

Last year was pretty terrible. 2006 was horrific through mid Jan. 2001 not stellar. 93 and 94 both were pretty bad as well.

Again, I know you know your stuff. For me personally it's hard to blame AGW for Vermont's bad start when the other side of the globe is frigid and Fairbanks is posting double digit negative anomalies. But I share your frustration with the pattern. While it won't help business for the holidays, I am firmly on board with a great second half of winter.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Wish I had looked at the Euro myself instead of reading some posts here

What have you seen that's different than what the pros are indicating? I mean if a red tagger up north is worried about rain I'm not sure we're on the r/s line.

[Ginx snewx]

What have you seen that's different than what the pros are indicating? I mean if a red tagger up north is worried about rain I'm not sure we're on the r/s line.

no longer term

[ctsnowstorm628]

Any word on the Euro ensembles?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

no longer term

Last one the theme hasn't changed. Redeveloper rain to snow west Atlantic Ocean bomb question is where

[ORH_wxman]

Last year was pretty terrible. 2006 was horrific through mid Jan. 2001 not stellar. 93 and 94 both were pretty bad as well.

Again, I know you know your stuff. For me personally it's hard to blame AGW for Vermont's bad start when the other side of the globe is frigid and Fairbanks is posting double digit negative anomalies. But I share your frustration with the pattern. While it won't help business for the holidays, I am firmly on board with a great second half of winter.

The warming trend has a measurable part to it, but in the scheme of how we "feel" these temps, its quite minor just compared to the fluctuations we see anyway. But its mostly just we got stuck in an awful pattern last winter...then finally broke out of it in November this year, but went back into at least a temporary warmer pattern here in December.

Of the top 10 warmest Vermont winters on record, they look like this:

1. 2001-2002

2. 1932-1933

3. 1936-1937

4. 2011-2012

5. 1948-1949

6. 1952-1953

7. 1931-1932

8. 1997-1998

T9. 1998-1999

T9. 1996-1997

T9. 1974-1975

T9. 1953-1954

We actually end up with 12 winters due to the ties.

You can see we have 5 of the years there in the last 16 winters including #1. Though 6 of the others also came in a relatively short period of 23 winters.

[powderfreak]

None taken - But I mean everything said sorry OT. -PDO (+) some% AGW killing the start of winter here never seen this, been here in VT since 86.

Its still been a lot better than last year so far in terms of what snowmaking has been able to accomplish at the ski resorts. Natural snowfall is getting close to last year but skiable terrain open around the region is much higher than last year at this time.

[powderfreak]

Is powderfreak on meltdown watch next?

Haha I'm pretty even and have mastered a decent ability to detach emotions from weather. It just is what it is. Skiing has still been pretty darn good lately as far as I'm concerned, all things considered.

Looks like winter, too. Hard to have a melt down staring at this every single day (photo from today). Its always winter in the highest elevations, lol.

[radarman]

The warming trend has a measurable part to it, but in the scheme of how we "feel" these temps, its quite minor just compared to the fluctuations we see anyway. But its mostly just we got stuck in an awful pattern last winter...then finally broke out of it in November this year, but went back into at least a temporary warmer pattern here in December.

Of the top 10 warmest Vermont winters on record, they look like this:

1. 2001-2002

2. 1932-1933

3. 1936-1937

4. 2011-2012

5. 1948-1949

6. 1952-1953

7. 1931-1932

8. 1997-1998

T9. 1998-1999

T9. 1996-1997

T9. 1974-1975

T9. 1953-1954

We actually end up with 12 winters due to the ties.

You can see we have 5 of the years there in the last 16 winters including #1. Though 6 of the others also came in a relatively short period of 23 winters.

Yeah my post wasn't meant in a denialist way. I know there's a measurable component and having 4 out of the top 12 warmest in a 6 year span certainly suggests non-random nature. But he is talking about 'starts to winter in VT" which reduces the scope spatially and temporally. 2006 didn't make that list because Feb. was frigid after Dec & Jan torched. For that stated scope, it's hard to attribute anything to AGW. Similarly if VT was cold and snowy while Asia and Alaska melted any posts of "see it's not warming" would rightly be dealt with.

The fact is this year we had cold and dry apparently followed by warm and wet. Sucks, for now anyway.

[powderfreak]

Yeah my post wasn't meant in a denialist way. I know there's a measurable component and having 4 out of the top 12 warmest in a 6 year span certainly suggests non-random nature. But he is talking about 'starts to winter in VT" which reduces the scope spatially and temporally. 2006 didn't make that list because Feb. was frigid after Dec & Jan torched. For that stated scope, it's hard to attribute anything to AGW. Similarly if VT was cold and snowy while Asia and Alaska melted any posts of "see it's not warming" would rightly be dealt with.

The fact is this year we had cold and dry apparently followed by warm and wet. Sucks, for now anyway.

The start of 2006-2007 season was far worse than this. Far worse. Couldn't even make snow that year, much less get it to fall from the sky. Right through MLK Weekend it was atrocious, then the switch flipped.